EXPECTED goals is a widely accepted part of soccer analysis, the idea being that the quality of shots created by the two teams can be put into a number that should give a truer result than the actual outcome, so a side that lost 1-0 on the scoreboard may have created enough good chance to say they should have won 2-1.

Such approaches are no doubt well-factored into betting markets, and similar thinking can be applied to racing which is clearly a vastly more complicated sport than soccer! Looking back at past races can often produce ‘expected results’ that are different to actual results, for reasons of pace, trouble in running, track bias or other factors, and such ideas can be used to bet on in the future.

Saturday’s Birdcatcher Nursery at Naas might be a good example. The first five in the official result went in the following order – Glamorously, Back Down Under, Staysound Susie, Ocean Baroque and Gloucester – but my own expected result would be more like Staysound Sussie, Glamorously, Back Down Under, Clarita, Ocean Baroque with forgiveness applied to the run of Dramatic Entrance.

Unlucky loser

The actual third Staysound Susie was clearly a very unlucky loser here, to such a degree I would rate her two lengths better than the rest.

Having broken well, Andrew Slattery was keen to take her back for cover as she had over-raced when ridden a bit more forward on her previous start, and she powered through the race just behind the pace in the manner of one well ahead of her mark.

She remained on the bridle for much of the race however as she could never get a clear run until switched to the middle of the track late on, doing very well in the circumstances to take third, her final challenge coming on what was likely the worst of the ground.

This is one that got away but as mentioned last week her trainer does well with handicappers and she is one to keep on side over sprint trips, with six furlongs looking her ideal distance for now.

Victory

The victory of the actual winner Glamorously looked unlikely for much of the race as she came off the bridle early, hitting the max price of 1000 on Betfair in-running, but she deserves credit for coming up the centre of the track and has a good attitude.

Actual fourth home Ocean Baroque may be slightly suspect in that regard having shown a ‘wonky’ head carriage late on and he failed to make use of what looked a prime pitch on the near rail judged on the rest of the card.

His fourth can be downgraded as can the effort of Perfect Judgement who also made little use of an ideal track position.

Clarita, the sixth home, was better than the form, and should have made the frame here. She found herself too far back after taking a bump at the stalls and both filly and rider seemed distracted by the faller before she finished strongly up the middle of the course. Seven furlongs may suit her better.

Dramatic Entrance is also worth a pass on her ninth-place finish. Her rider reported that she hung right throughout and she also seemed to hit several ridges in the second half of the race and this wasn’t her form.

IT is unusual for Naas to host a two-day flat meeting, but the new calendar meant that last weekend’s cards, which were previously a few weeks apart, were held back-to-back and the revised layout of the track with fresh ground for Sunday seemed to play a big part in the outcome of most races.

Ronan Whelan mentioned this after he won the second race on Goal Exceeded from the widest stall, often an advantage on slow ground at the track but not so on this card: ‘It showed how good he is as I came up the worst of the ground, it’s way better on the rail. I just had to go where I was and didn’t want to break his stride.’

The effect was particularly marked on the round track where front-runners held sway for most the card, Curvature and Prairie Dancer among those winners that may have been flattered having made the running, though Dylan Browne McMonagle did very well to get the latter across from a wide draw in the Colm White Bookmaker November Handicap, keeping his mount away from the rest until just before the first bend then cutting across to lead. Dancing Tango was the only winner of the six races on the round track to really come from behind and she looked to put up a big performance to win the Bluebell Stakes going away, Browne McMonagle commenting post-race that he had not intended to have her that far back, but she was in the stalls a long time at the start.

Her previous form from France was likely better than it looked, and she is much improved this season with the potential for more to come if she remains in training at five.

Alfalfa, third in the low-grade handicap later on the card, is another that seemed to shape well in coming from an impossible position behind two that were ridden forward while the November Handicap sixth Brogue, was better than the form as he came from rear and has more races in him, provided he can be kept sound.

IT has been pointed out that October has been grim for odds-on punters in Ireland, and this is correct, a strikerate of 42% for the apparent good things by far the worst month of 2023 when the yearly win rate has been 62%.

Gordon Elliott has been villain in chief for those backers with four odds-on losers this month, not to mention another on the last day of September via Zaidi, but I am less interested in the small sample variance of those results than the profile of the Elliott losers and what they might say about how he is approaching the winter.

His odds-on losers were all returning from a break and his record with National Hunt runners coming off absences of 100 or more days in September and October in 2023 up to last Sunday is one winner from 25 runners with eight places, strike-rates of 4% and 32% respectively, with sole winner being Zanahiyr in a weak three-runner hurdle.

That stands in sharp contrast to his overall record with runners of the same profile in the five years previous when he had had 63 winners from 279 runners with 133 places, win and place strike-rates of 22.6% and 47.8%.

Different approach

This is not to say that Elliott has landed on a bad crop of horses but rather that he may be taking a different approach with his autumn and early winter runners, leaving more to work on than previous years.

Of the 25 runners that were coming off a break in September and October this year, four have run back since with two winning (Dee Capo and Yeats Star) and I wonder if he wants to extend his season more into the end of next spring, a period when his yard has often hit a lull.

Punchestown has historically been a poor meeting for him, his strikerate at the festival there over the last five years just 6.8%, and bar a four-timer on the opening day of the 2022 meeting there has been little to shout about, but perhaps a change of approach will mean he is better equipped to compete with Willie Mullins out to the end of the season.