NATIVE Trail should win the Tattersalls Irish 2000 Guineas (3.20) today, shouldn’t he?

Making a case for the Godolphin colt is easy. He’s miles clear on ratings. He was arguably unlucky not to win a high-class renewal of the 2000 Guineas. He is returning to the scene of his Group 1 National Stakes win. His connections are carrying all before them this season and going for a Guineas treble.

He’s drawn in stall one. Wait. Stop right there. That is actually a big negative for Native Trail and if you’re backing one against him, this has to be your main reason to be optimistic.

Native Trail is likely to sit far back and stall one means sitting on the rail, an ominous position in a race where every other jockey will have a target on William Buick’s back. That surely means there will be a few hairy moments for those backing at odds-on.

Of course, you can win from stall one. You only have to look at recent renewals to see that but context is everything. Mac Swiney won from stall one last year but the ground was soft to heavy and they came down the centre of the track. No luck in running was needed. Phoenix Of Spain won from stall one but he made all the running, utilising his draw.

Maybe they’ll do that with Native Trail but that would be a bold move, as he has so far been held up in all his races, and his gradual rev-up style of running is suited to these tactics. Kingman won from stall one in 2014 but again, the ground was testing that day, and the whole field moved over to the stands’ side rail.

Siskin is probably the best case and point for this discussion. He was drawn in stall two.

Yes he came through to win decisively, but without knowing the in-running odds as per fact, you can near guarantee he traded a lot higher than his starting price at the two-furlong pole. And, Siskin was a turn-of-foot type miler, as Jerry Hannon put it on the day, a “push button”.

As mentioned, Native Trail has more of a gradual way of making progress. You keep shoveling the coal on until the fire eventually blazes to devastating effect. Being in among horses could be a possible deterrent to his momentum.

The best horses and jockeys overcome these sorts of situations. Native Trail is already one of the best three-year-olds around but maybe he’s in for more of a test than his prohibitive odds suggest.

In truth, the standard in behind isn’t great at all. In fact, without Native Trail this would be a very poor renewal, for all that Buckaroo looked very smart in winning the Tetrarch at this track last time out and moving him back to a mile looks an inspired move from the Joseph O’Brien team.

Aidan O’Brien hasn’t won this race in four years and while Ivy League was an interesting supplementary entry for him, it’s likely to be five years without a win for Ballydoyle today.

Godolphin haven’t won this since Dubawi in 2015 and, in yet another positive for Native Trail, he had a very similar profile, having won the Superlative Stakes, National Stakes and been beaten in the 2000 Guineas.

Estrella returns in 1000

TOMORROW’S Tattersalls Irish 1,000 Guineas (3.45) looks a much more open affair than the colts’ equivalent with Newmarket third Tuesday topping the market at around the 5/2 mark, just ahead of Leopardstown trial winner Homeless Songs.

Aidan O’Brien is well represented with four, headed by another trial winner in History, while there are two British-trained fillies in Mise En Scene (James Ferguson) and Purplepay (William Haggas).

Further down the betting there are a number of unexposed fillies who could be dangerous here and none are more interesting than Fozzy Stack’s Hermana Estrella. It has been just over a year since she exploded onto the scene by making a 50/1 winning debut in the Group 3 Coolmore Stud Irish EBF Fillies Sprint Stakes.

The form of that race turned out to be exceptional, considering she and Quick Suzy moved five lengths clear of their rivals, and the Gavin Cromwell-trained filly then went on to win the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot. However, Hermana Estrella hasn’t been seen since and will now make her second start in a classic.

Little hiccup

“We were aiming her at the Moyglare and she just had a little hiccup so that was her done for the season,” Stack told The Irish Field yesterday. “We were looking at France for her last weekend but the weather got too hot and the ground would have been the quick side for her.

“She is in good form and she is training well. Maybe, if we knew we weren’t going to run in France, we’d have taken in the Athasi Stakes on our route here but what’s done is done. It’s a big ask, but we’re happy to let her take her chance, and we’ll be able to gauge where we are at with her for the season ahead.”

The Starspangledbanner filly, a 12/1 shot, will be ridden by Jamie Spencer, who rode Tarascon to win this race for Tommy Stack in 1998.