Just before 4am Irish-time on Tuesday thousands of horse racing anoraks will crawl out of bed and switch on the television to watch live coverage of the 2016 Emirates Melbourne Cup.

First run in 1861, the two-mile handicap has long been billed locally as ‘the race that stops a nation’ but it has grown hugely in international significance ever since the Dermot Weld-trained Vintage Crop pulled off a historic victory in the 1993 edition.

Weld won it again in 2002 with Media Puzzle, the Japanese took the 2006 edition with Delta Blues and the French won it 2010 (Dunaden) and 2011 (Americain) while Germany got on the scoresheet two years ago with Protectionist.

This year there are 10 international runners in the 24-strong field. A further 10 ‘local’ horses are actually European imports, three others were bred in New Zealand and there is just one true Australian-bred horse – the classy mare Jameka.

So, which of the 24 will write their name into racing history on Tuesday? Let’s take a quick run through the field and make some predictions.

1. BIG ORANGE (9/1): Fifth last year for Michael Bell and Jamie Spencer. Sure to go well from the front again but so hard to judge the fractions just right in this race.

2. OUR IVANHOWE (40/1): A Group 1 winner in Germany and Australia who finished 10th in last year’s Cup. Unlikely to get soft ground on which he excels.

3. CURREN MIROTIC (33/1): Japanese eight-year-old who likes to front-run but has a poor draw to overcome. Hasn’t impressed observers in training and doesn’t look good enough.

4. BONDI BEACH (7/1): Last year’s Doncaster St Leger runner-up has been laid out for this race by Aidan O’Brien. One of four racing in colours of top local owner Lloyd Williams and has Ryan Moore on board.

5. EXOSPHERIC (20/1): Smart middle-distance performer for Sir Michael Stoute earlier this year (named Exosphere). Showed enough on Australian debut to suggest he has a squeak here.

6. HARTNELL (9/2): Royal Ascot winner in 2014 for Mark Johnston. Developed into true Group 1 player in Australia and looks the clear pick of Godolphin’s five runners.

7. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (33/1): Only 11th in this last year and though he has been running consistently this year there is little to suggest he has improved.

8. WICKLOW BRAVE (14/1): Shock Irish St Leger winner won lots of admirers while warming up for this in Werribee but confidence has ebbed since Willie Mullins’ runner was handed a very wide draw.

9. ALMOONQITH (20/1): French import who finished 18th in this last year and has struggled in admittedly good company this year.

10. GALLANTE (66/1): A Group 1 winner in France and Australia who looks overpriced as market believes he needs soft ground. Another owned by Lloyd Williams.

11. GRAND MARSHAL (40/1): Only beat three home in this last year but met a lot of trouble. Generally consistent and there are worse outsiders than this multiple Group 2 winner.

12. JAMEKA (7/1): Strong second favourite trained by Ciaron ‘Bashboy’ Maher. Impressive Caulfield Cup winner who could streak home if the daughter of Myboycharlie stays two miles.

13. HEARTBREAK CITY (12/1): Tony Martin’s fairytale Ebor winner was dealt a blow by a bad draw but the trainer remains very confident that the horse is in peak condition and certain to run well.

14. SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD (50/1): Ballymacoll-bred import who ran an uncharacteristic stinker in the Caulfield Cup. Untried at two miles before now so capable of improvement.

15. EXCESS KNOWLEDGE (66/1): Seventh last year but has failed to win in six starts since then and trainer Gai Waterhouse doesn’t sound confident of success.

16. BEAUTIFUL ROMANCE (50/1): Classy mare on her best European form though could do with some rain and looks Godolphin’s outsider.

17. ALMANDIN (11/1): Holds very big chance on his 2013 defeat of Protectionist in Germany. Has been deliberately lightly raced in Australia and could be very well treated.

18. ASSIGN (100/1): Like last year’s winner, a roughie ridden by a woman. This recent Group 2 winner may go straight to the front from his bad draw and set a strong pace for the others.

19. GREY LION (33/1): French import should give rookie trainer Matt Cumani (son of Luca) a thrill but looks held on form.

20. OCEANOGRAPHER (8/1): Only seventh in the Ebor but loved by Aussie punters following his Geelong Cup third and Lexus Stakes win. Surely too short a price for his third run in two weeks.

21. SECRET NUMBER (25/1): Classy Godolphin sort who is under the radar but has some great pieces of form to his name. Trainer Saeed bin Suroor has saddled the runner-up three times.

22. PENTATHLON (100/1): New Zealand galloper looks a total longshot.

23. QEWY (20/1): Was hurdling with John Ferguson this time last year. Tempting to suspect his Geelong Cup win said more about opposition that him but could reach the frame.

24. ROSE OF VIRGINIA (500/1): This mare won’t be troubling the judge.

VERDICT: This corner has viewed BONDI BEACH as the Melbourne Cup winner since May and there’s no reason to desert him now. Unlike previous Ballydoyle challengers, this one has been prepared specifically for this race and is sure to produce a Group 1 performance. Godolphin field five and Hartnell is a big player. Secret Number can also represent Godolphin well while Almandin looks best of the rest.