IT cost me 20 pence more per gallon of fuel here in Co Fermanagh this week than last week. The war involving Iran is beginning to ripple through global energy and fertiliser markets, with potential consequences for Irish farmers as the 2026 season progresses. Conflict in the Middle East has already driven a sharp rise in oil and gas prices after disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a route that normally carries about 20% of the world’s oil supply. The instability has pushed energy markets higher and increased volatility across agricultural inputs.

For fertiliser, the key link is natural gas. Nitrogen fertilisers are heavily dependent on gas during the manufacturing process, meaning higher energy prices typically translate into higher fertiliser costs. Analysts have warned that if gas prices remain elevated, fertiliser prices across Europe and the UK, including Ireland, are likely to rise as the year progresses.

Tightened exports

The conflict is also affecting fertiliser supply chains. Reduced shipping through the Gulf region has tightened exports of nitrogen fertilisers, with some markets already seeing price jumps in urea. Irish farm organisations have cautioned that while the full impact is still emerging, farmers could face another period of volatility similar to the fertiliser price spikes seen following the Ukraine war. For now, the message from advisers is to monitor markets closely, as global energy tensions continue to influence fertiliser costs.