WITH the busy Christmas period behind us and a few ‘straight to Cheltenham’ shots already fired into the air, how much more have we learned over the last week on the Road To Cheltenham?

In Britain, Constitution Hill was top of the class, Bravemansgame got an A for his King George performance while Edwardstone surprisingly blotted his copybook in the Grade 2 Desert Orchid Chase, reminding us once again that this is jump racing and everyone and anyone can have a lapse.

Paisley Park won the popularity award and, overall, many races also reminded us that it is generally best to stick with Grade 1 form in Grade 1 races.

The total of 13 King George wins is a phenomenal achievement for Paul Nicholls. But the Gold Cup is a different challenge and no amount of pre-race confidence is going to see a horse home.

To stay or not to stay

Paul Nicholls’ Kempton 13 winners can be divided into Kauto Star (5) and See More Business (2) who both went on the win the Gold Cup, and Silvinianco Conti (2), Clan Des Obeaux (2) and Frodon who all went there with trainer confidence but failed to stay.

Bravemansgame raced wide which was the plan and covered more ground but it’s still a big step up to get home over the Cheltenham Gold Cup distance. I’d leave him be.

L’Homme Presse was held when he fell at the last. Gold Cup winners Mr Mulligan and Don Cossack were also Kempton fallers in their winning years.

L’Homme Presse never jumped with the ease that he had at Cheltenham or in the Scilly Isles at Sandown. He still looks a worthy Gold Cup contender and has two course wins to his name compared to Bravesmansgame.

The ‘over bar a fall’ race

Constitution Hill sits high and mighty over this category. The Christmas Hurdle was a procession and there’s little to indicate that the Champion Hurdle will not be a similar stroll.

The old reliables

The saying ‘the old dog for the hard road’ might need to be amended slightly for no one would utter such a term near Paisley Park who was one of the most uplifting winners of the week in the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle.

The opposition may not have been the strongest but he showed all his old enthusiasm and the Stayers’ contenders are all a bit hit-and-miss so far, albeit Flooring Porter ran well enough at Leopardstown – but to make all the running three years in a row is a tough task.

The Inbetweeners

Conflated and Home By The Lee come in here.

Conflated was already a Grade 1 winner over the course at Leopardstown but it was still dismissed as a bit of a fluke with the better horses missing last season. The manner of his Savills Chase win made you think again.

These were not the best of the Grade 1 opponents compared to what he will meet at Cheltenham but he won this easily and, with his confidence up, he would be dangerous to dismiss.

The Stayers’ Hurdle is the biggest conundrum of the Festival championship races. What will run is the first question. Do we go with and old reliable or look for a new challenger? Home By The Lee certainly seems to have improved this year (beaten seven and a half lengths in last season’s Stayers’) but he has to step up again.

Blue Lord was also one of the most impressive winners at Leopardstown, over two miles. He is another that may have two options at Cheltenham. Willie Mullins had appeared to have pencilled him in for a longer distance race as he was well beaten in the Arkle last sesason. But this win may cause a pause for thought. As ever, who knows at this stage who might end up in the Ryanair.

The novice hurdlers

Facile Vega continued his winning sequence but I’m in a minority that have just not taken to this horse. Willie Mullins’ comments and praise must of course be given huge respect and his win record can’t be faulted but I didn’t think he justified the hype this week. He had what appeared to be an easy task but his jumping just wasn’t as slick as you would like.

I’d much prefer the current 8/1 for Marine Nationale than the evens for Facile Vega at this stage. High Definition was a ‘wait and see’ horse but he won his novice debut in good style and there is plenty of 20s available for the Supreme. I’d keep him on side. Of the juveniles, Lossiemouth just looks like a very professional racemare in her jumping and racing and she sets the standard.

Novice chasers

Dysart Dynamo made an impressive fencing debut on Tuesday but, in fairness, it was a schooling session and he has more serious rivals in his own stable than he faced here. Again, with novice chasers, you have to consider their fencing techniques as well as undoubted ability. It’s hard to guess how much he had left when falling in last season’s hot Supreme Novices’, except to say horses often guess at obstacles when they are coming under pressure.

A colleague described his grandad’s wise words when overtaken by a car being driven too fast, “there’s a ditch or a wall up there waiting for that fellow”, and I feel the same about Dysart Dynamo in what looks a very hot two-mile division. There’s a fence might catch him out with his free-running style.

The vanquished

THERE were quite a few high-class horses in action at the Kempton and Leopardstown meetings who now have question marks against them.

Envoi Allen never looked happy in the King George and it is hard to see where he could pick up another Grade 1 win.

It looked an odd decision to travel all the way from Scotland to Kempton to run Ahoy Senor in such a hot race at a track which he did not appear to like last year. Would going back to hurdles be an option? The Stayers’ is looking pretty open and Big Buck’s is the poster boy for going back hurdling.

Bob Olinger was ridden to stay at Leopardstown and didn’t appear to but he still looks a long way from the horse who toyed with Bravemansgame in winning that Ballymore Novices’ two years ago. With regard to Cheltenham, there doesn’t appear to be a race for him unless connections take a punt at a return to two miles.

Zanahiyr was also very disappointing at Leopardstown. When Gordon Elliott’s charge won on his juvenile debut at Fairyhouse he put up a tremendous performance on the clock and has held his own in many Grade 1s. But he now he seems to be in a no man’s land. He was reported to need a wind op after his first run this season but this was by far his worst run.

And what of the big absentee A Plus Tard? The big question is where he will get a pre-Festival run now. He will only be nine in March though there seems to be a growing belief that he had too hard a race in winning the Gold Cup last year, quite forgetting that it looked every bit as tough a race in defeat the previous season.

Hopefully the joint knock will settle quickly and we see him back in action. His Cheltenham record surely still makes the 9/1 look appealing.