THE Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe stand as stately over the European flat season as the monument it commemorates stands in the centre of Paris.

It is the pièce de résistance ofthe season. Sea The Stars will always have one over on Frankel in the greatest horse debates with his grand finale in winning the Arc in his perfect three-year-old season. And, by contrast, Nijinsky’s near faultless career is blighted by that failure in Paris.

From tales of Nijinsky onwards, I have had a love-hate connection with the Arc. Forgive it for what it did with the younger day heroes, Ardross, Troy, Mtoto. It redeemed itself a little with Sea The Stars and the softer Paris conditions happily provided two rather tasty each-way wins when Solemia and Torquator Tasso outran their odds to scoop the big prize.

It has been the must-win race for Japan over the last decades. How ironic it would be if a horse bred in Japan, by one of their top racehorses, would win it, but for Irish connections.

Such is the strength in depth of the Ballydoyle yard that at the media morning back in late March, Continuous and Warm Heart were among the also rans. Auguste Rodin, Little Big Bear, Meditate, Statuette and Victoria Road had gained much more prominence. Savethelastdance flattered mid-season but now, on Arc weekend, it is Continuous who holds the banner for the stable.

Can the later-developing Leger winner be the one? The Leger win is used as a negative but, as pointed out by a few others, it’s not per se that running in the Leger has a negative effect. It’s that even a reproduction of the Leger performance may not be good enough; the Arc is at another level. Leger winner Sun Princess finished second in a vintage Arc behind All Along. Back in the day (is it really that long ago?) Snurge and User Friendly made bold bids for the Arc after Leger success, as more recently did Kingston Hill and Hurricane Lane, crucially off tougher seasons.

Continuous is improving. He won the Great Voltiguer in good style but then any of that field would be double figure prices in this Arc.

Ace Impact and Feed The Flame could be true stars. Bary is bullish on the latter. Rouget is in confident mood for the unbeaten Jockey Club winner.

Japanese connections believe their mare is the best horse the Japanese could have sent over to run in the Arc.

Ace Impact has the wow performance but that speed at the end of the Jockey Club could just be coming to its end here. Feed The Flame will also be coming late, not as late as in the Niel but the race looks subject to a bit of congestion with a wave of closers. It is perhaps a strange stat that no French-trained three-year-old colt has won since 2006. Is the German colt Fantastic Moon their forgotten horse again?

Hukum and Westover have been trained for this. The race’s winningmost trainer Andre Fabre’s Place Du Carrousel has avoided any big clashes and the filly attracts attention at the bigger odds. That Opéra form with Nashwa puts her in contention.

Very strong

The stats for fillies in the Arc are very strong. Eight winners since 2000 (two repeats). Compare that to the other big later season middle distance Group 1s. In the same timeframe, four female winners of the Irish Champions Stakes, two of the British Champions Stakes.

Did a September Stakes win on an artificial surface prove Bay Bridge stays a mile and a half well? It didn’t for Mostahdaf.

There is little between Hukum and Westover on King George form. Two extra cracks of the whip? In a race like the Arc, I’d prefer Westover’s more forward running style than having to be pushed to find a run through in this bigger field as Hukum may have to. Hukum’s big wins were in six-runner fields before the King George where the field was thinned out by the time he began his run. There is no obvious pace in tomorrow’s field, it may be harder to get a sustained run through, and he was hit with the stall 14 draw.

Onesto was popular last season. Second in that Irish Champions Stakes, he disappointed this time when only seventh of eight at Leopardstown, six lengths behind Luxembourg compared to the half a length last season. Only two runs this year is an unconventional Arc prep. Last season’s three-year-olds didnt cover themselves in glory, Vadeni and Desert Crown have left the scene.

In the end, I’m going with Place Du Carrousel at the odds with Westover hanging tough in the first three and Ace Impact just faltering close home.