Cheltenham Saturday

12:05 JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle 2m 179y

The Triumph Hurdle picture is particularly opaque at the moment, with plenty of useful juveniles on the scene, but few promising to push the bar to the level required to win here in March.

Yorksea ran an encouraging debut over hurdles here last month, finishing third to Knight Salute in the Grade 2 Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle.

That entitles him to start favourite, but that was a rather messy race in which a length and three-quarters separated second from sixth. The runner-up, also a debutant, flopped at Warwick on Thursday, and perhaps it’s not form to put much faith in.

It’s perhaps significant that Yorksea is not the shortest price of these in the Triumph itself, with that honour going to Dan Skelton’s Message Personnel, a winner at Dieppe for Jean-Philippe Dubois in July. It’s never easy to equate French form, but the filly he beat that day has since been placed off a French mark of 125, which reads well, and this son of Saints Des Saints is out of a winning half-sister to Foxhunter Chase runner-up Wonderful Charm (a Grade 2 winner as a novice), which suggests he will progress well over jumps, and he looks the pick based on the limited evidence on offer.

12:40 Bearrene.com Novices’ Chase 2m 4f 127y

My Drogo was set to score when falling two out here last month, and while backing one with that debut experience can be a risky business, Dan Skelton’s charge is a potential top-notcher over fences, and cannot be opposed with any degree of confidence.

I’m not a backer of horses over fences at the price he will go off, but I am a believer that the emergence of top-class talent is good for the game, so I hope he wins this well, and shows no sign of having been adversely marked by that unfortunate experience.

1:15 Simon Claisse Handicap Chase 2m 62y

I’m respectful of the chances of the prolific Editeur Du Gite, and he should be facing similar conditions as for his win here last month, but a 7lb rise is stiff enough in the circumstances, and opens the door to his rivals. Amoola Gold is an Ascot specialist who makes limited appeal at his current price, but both Cheddleton and Frero Banbou are of interest, with a narrow vote going to the latter for the thriving Venetia Williams yard.

Frero Banbou shaped as if needing the run at Ascot in October, when his stable was quiet, and he ran much better when a good eight lengths third of 12 to Il Ridoto at Newbury a fortnight ago. The winner ran very flat when turned out quickly in Grade 1 company last week, but that effort should be ignored, as it clearly came too soon after a spectacular display.

The pair Frero Banbou split, Numitor and Grey Diamond came to Newbury in top form and ran their races, so the form looks strong, and the six-year-old ought to have plenty more to offer.

1:50 Racing Post Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m 4f 127y

The recent history of this race shows how important it is to race prominently, with Guitar Pete the only winner in recent years to have been held up, and whose win owed everything to the sad demise of Starchitect, who would have won easily but for sustaining a fatal injury in the home straight. That puts me off the hold-up horses, for all I believe that Deyrann De Carjac has a race in him when conditions aren’t too testing.

The problem with sticking with a front-runner is that there are plenty of them, and it seems unlikely that anything is going to be allowed to dictate terms.

That said, I’m more than happy to continue my torrid love affair with Cepage, on whom relative waiting tactics were a disaster in this race last year.

In 2019 he chased home no less a horse than Frodon, and came 15 lengths clear of the others in finishing second, so the track and trip is clearly ideal, as he again showed when winning a Grade 3 handicap over course and distance in January last year, where he gave weight and a beating to Lalor.

Cepage’s strong point is his lightning-quick jumping, and settling him amongst horses was not a great idea last year, as he found that ability compromised, and he will always be at his best when either disputing the lead or able to jump in space, where he can gain ground both in the air and away from his obstacles. Hopefully that’s how he’ll be ridden here, and he will run very well if that’s the case.

This may seem a late stage in the season for him to be returning, but Williams has always done well with those of her horses returning in mid-winter, and backing her chasers in particular at this time of year after a break has been very profitable.

2:25 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (registered as Bristol Novices’ Hurdle) (Grade 2) 2m 7f 213y

Blazing Khal is a short price here, and is not strictly proven at this trip, but having watched a replay of his win over Gelino Bello and Current Mood in a two-mile-five-furlong novice here at the November meeting, it’s hard to envision the placed horses turning the tables despite the penalty which Charles Byrnes’s gelding must carry, while he also appeals as a stronger stayer than the runner-up.

My one concern about him is that I thought he was feeling the ground a little in the closing stages, and this big, raw-boned gelding almost certainly needs soft in the description to be at his best. For that reason, I’d be a little wary of backing him if there is no further rain, although I feel his trainer would probably not risk him if was too quick in any case.

3:00 Unibet International Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m 179y

This is a disappointing turn-out for such a good race, and while that should mean that Sceau Royal should take plenty of beating, he’s never been a horse to take a lot of racing, and this will be his fourth run since the middle of October, and I think he may find that taking the edge off him.

He travelled best in this race last year before getting outstayed up the hill, and that is always his Achilles heel. Last year’s winner, Song For Someone, looked as good as ever when splitting Buzz and Guard Your Dreams in the Ascot Hurdle, and he’s respected for all his trainer’s record of just two wins from 60 runners going back to March is far from encouraging. It’s the Ascot third who makes more appeal at the odds, however, and that good run came on the back of a victory in handicap company here in October.

Guard Your Dreams needs to step up a little to turn the tables with Song For Someone, but he’s a progressive five-year-old who had Ballyadam well behind him when placed in the Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle in April, and while he stays further, he will be suited by the stiffer test presented by the New Course.

The form of his handicap win over Coole Cody on his penultimate start has worked out rwell, with the runner-up unlucky when falling when in front in the Paddy Power, and the third and fourth both winning televised events since.

Recommended

Frero Banbou 1:15 Cheltenam – 2pts win @ 9/2 (general)

Cepage 1:50 Cheltenham – 1pt e/w @ 18/1 (Hills – 5 places, Bet365)

Guard Your Dreams 3:00 Cheltenham – 2pts win @ 11/2 (BetVictor, Coral)