Newmarket Saturday

1:50 My Odds Boost On Betfair Handicap 6f

The pace in this sprint handicap – such as there is – seems to be in the middle and on the far side, and I’d be inclined to ignore those drawn high, many of whom are hold-up performers with no obvious leader to follow on that part of the track. It may be that speed wins this, as Justanotherbottle should have the opportunity of a solo up the middle of the track, but he didn’t run particularly well on his previous visit here, and that is just enough to put me off, for all I think his speed up the centre could be the key to the contest.

Apollo One should get a good tow from Justanotherbottle, and he is 8lb better off for a narrow defeat at the hands of Blackrod here last summer. That was his first handicap having been tried in black-type company since a winning juvenile debut. He is better on turf, so a couple of all-weather runs this year can be ignored, and he’s considered at a price. Marginal preference, however, is for Jumby, drawn next to him in stall 12, who looked as good as ever when third in the Abernant Stakes on his return, and Eve Johnson Houghton’s four-year-old has a fine record here, with form figures of 310313, including a win in a big-field handicap over course and distance.

If the pace on the far side holds up, then Summerghand looks the one to take advantage. He is exposed now, but is well suited by the way course and distance events unfold at Newmarket, and his track record outside Group 1 company is a very tidy 1222211. He will get a pull into things from Mr Wagyu and If You Dare, and is a must for exotics.

2:25 Betfair Daily Rewards Suffolk Handicap 1m1f

Fast Medicine is a tentative pick. He appeared to show improvement on his return at Nottingham recently, running out a facile winner in a hood, having been gelded since looking awkward at Haydock in September.

Whether it was the headgear, the gelding or a combination of the two, he looked more straightforward at Nottingham, and ran out a six-length winner in a notably good time. This is a stronger contest, but if he is able to show the same level of form under a penalty, he will be very difficult to beat.

3:00 Betfair Palace House Stakes (Group 3) 5f

Twilight Calls looked good when winning over this course and distance at the Craven Meeting, and while it can be argued that he faces a much stiffer task with his win coming off a handicap mark of 94, the truth is that he looked a really exciting prospect last season, and gives the impression that there is plenty more progress in him at the minimum trip, and the regard in which he’s held is evidenced by the fact he’s been backed into favouritism for all but one of his starts since his debut. It’s interesting to note that when he started second favourite for a Newbury maiden as a juvenile, he was beaten in a photo by Whenthedealinsdone, who reopposes.

Twilight Calls has been impressive on both starts here on quick ground, serving notice of his potential when scoring in a warm three-year-old handicap at the July Meeting. He ran well in defeat later in the year, but still looked like he needed to strengthen up a bit, and is expected to do just that this term. This track is ideal, and he appears to need a sound surface to showcase his smart turn of foot, and can have no excuses.

3:40 Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) 1m

There is no denying that Native Trail is the horse to beat in the Guineas, especially as Coroebus looks isolated on the far side of the course, but I’m not entirely sure stall 15 of 15 is a blessing, as it increases the chance of him getting stuck in traffic, unless the field converges towards the middle, which is far from certain to be the case. From a punting perspective, there is limited upside from backing an even-money shot in a big-field Guineas, and history is littered with hard-luck stories for such horses.

I’d rather cut my stakes a little and back one for whom conditions are ideal, and while there is a degree of doubt about his stamina for a mile, I thought Lusail was overpriced for a horse with proven talent, and who ran an encouraging trial when conceding first run to Perfect Power in the Greenham. Lusail has gained his biggest wins – the July Stakes here, and the Gimcrack at York – over six furlongs, but he stays seven furlongs well, having won his novice over that trip here last June, and the fact that he did so at that stage of his career suggests he’s at least worth a try at a mile now.

Lusail has only run below par when the ground has been on the soft side, and the key to him is underfoot conditions, with the likely firmish turf here sure to bring out the best in him. He was closing down Perfect Power over seven furlongs in the Greenham, and he has the ideal running style for this, seeming best when tracking a strong pace. In terms of official figures, only Native Trail is rated higher, and while beating that rival will require a slice of luck, he appears to have solid place claims, and yet is priced at 66/1. That equates to over 13/1 to finish in the first four, and those odds look plain wrong to me.

Thirsk Saturday

2:05 Fitzdares Thirsk Hunt Cup Handicap 7f 218yds

It’s a little surprising that Tim Easterby hasn’t managed to land the Thirsk Hunt Cup, but he can put that right with Delgrey Boy on Saturday. Like pretty much all of his stablemates, Delgrey Boy needed the run quite badly on his reappearance, and improved markedly to chase home Excel Power at Haydock a week ago. The five-year-old was not best suited by how that race panned out, being trapped wider than ideal in a race where the winner was able to slow the tempo mid-race before quickening from the front. Delgrey Boy did well to get so close, and will be better suited by an end-to-end gallop, which he should get here.

A course-and-distance winner, his record over a mile on quick ground in the past year reads 133322 despite a steadily climbing mark, and this model of consistency is capable of winning a good contest off his current mark. Half-brother Highwaygrey progressed again as a five-year-old for the same connections, and Delgrey Boy’s profile is also one of gradual improvement. Stall 11 holds no fears, and while I do fear Trais Fluors from last year’s winning stable, I’m happy to row in with the selection, who will be hard to kick out of the frame.

Newmarket Sunday

3:40 Qipco 1000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) 1m

I was very taken by Zellie last season, and André Fabre’s daughter of Wootton Bassett is the type to progress as she strengthens up this year. She produced a sparkling run to land the Marcel Boussac under Oisin Murphy on Arc day last October, looking a top-notch prospect in the process.

She had been ridden by the stable apprentice on her previous start in the Group 3 Prix d’Aumale, where she was asked for her effort too late, but caught the eye when flashing home for second behind stablemate Fleur d’Iris. She turned the tables in no uncertain terms in the Boussac, again held up, but producing a strong and sustained run up the rail to lead inside the last half furlong. She was unsuited by the drop back to seven furlongs when runner-up to Malavath in the Prix Imprudence at Deauville on her reappearance, and is a confident shout to turn the tables back over a mile, which will prove her minimum this term.

Zellie won’t need the mud to show her form, having shaped well on a sound surface, and she appeals as an ideal type for this contest, being from the family of 1000 Guineas winner Speciosa.

Recommended

Saturday

Jumby 1:50 Newmarket – 1pt e/w @ 17/2 (Bet365 - 6 places)

Delgrey Boy 2:05 Thirsk – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (BetVictor – 4 places, or 12/1 SkyBet – 5 places)

Twilight Calls 3:00 Newmarket – 1pt win @ 3/1 (general)

Lusail 3:40 Newmarket – 1pt e/w @ 66/1 (Bet365 4 places, Hills, Unibet – 3 places)

Sunday

Zellie 3:40 Newmarket – 1pt win @ 10/1 (general)