Kempton Sunday

1.20 Ladbrokes Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase 2m 4f 110yds

I reckon that the best bet on the day at Kempton comes here in the shape of the Milton Harris-trained Jacamar, who produced his best effort over hurdles when winning on this day last year at Wincanton, and who shaped with enormous promise over fences there last time.

He gets the grossly unfair comment “carrying head awkwardly approaching last” in Timeform’s write-up of his close second to Our Power.

Mistake

In truth, he had come through to lead after the second last, but didn’t see a stride at the final obstacle, making a mistake which cost him the race. Despite that, he rallied gamely to re-join Our Power, only to be carried off a true line by that rival close home. To me, he did little wrong, and the awarding of an in-play squiggle seems very harsh.

On the plus side, more people read Timeform comments than watch race replays, so the promise of that run may be missed by many, and it certainly was by the firms betting ante-post on this contest who went 20/1 about the son of Maxios, and there is still a bit of 16s around at the time of writing.

The selection is just 2lb higher than for Wincanton, which looks generous as he and the winner pulled well clear of a pair of previous winners. He’s now fitted with cheekpieces, which may aid his concentration when it comes to jumping.

Impressive

Of the others, Bothwell Bridge was quite impressive at Sandown, but the sharper track at Kempton will not suit him so well, and he will be better when tried over three miles.

Mister Coffey and Sebastopol have let punters down on multiple occasions, notably the latter, who loves to finish second, while Danny Kirwan is coming to chasing quite late for a former point-to-point winner, and was inclined to reach for his fences on his debut at Cheltenham in October – he’s another who hasn’t achieved as much as a big home reputation promised.

1.55 Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (In Memory of Nigel Clark) (Grade 1) 3m

Only four entries for this Grade 1, but they all turn up, which is a positive, and we should be in for a treat with Bravemansgame and Ahoy Senor likely to take each other on from flag-fall.

It’s not a betting race for me, as my thinking is that the key element in this match is which of the jockeys will blink first. Both look potential Gold Cup horses of the future, and I doubt whether Paul Nicholls or Lucinda Russell will want to expose them to a slog at this early stage of their chasing careers.

Both want to lead, but one or both trainers will tell their jockey to take back if they can’t dominate, and the one least dependent on leading is Bravemansgame. An early error by either horse would change the tone, of course, but it would be dangerous for connections of the favourite if they allow Ahoy Senor to set the tempo.

Bravemansgame doesn’t seem the type to be let down by his jumping, and it is logical that he’s favoured by the books.

However, for all he threw in a couple of sketchy jumps at Newbury, Ahoy Senor is equally capable of putting his rivals to the sword by dint of bold jumping, and I was hugely impressed by that wide-margin win.

Many pundits will tell you that the race fell apart, but top-class horses make races fall apart by drawing out the weaknesses of their opponents, and that’s very much what he did in the John Francome. The pair have met just once, when Bravemansgame allowed the unfancied Ahoy Senor an uncontested lead in the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree, and we know what happened there.

2.30 Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m

A poor turnout for this Grade 1, for all a rematch between the pair who dead-heated in the Fighting Fifth has some box-office appeal.

Epatante ought to win given the sharp two miles will suit her better than the stamina-laden Not So Sleepy, but I’m not convinced she’s as good as she was, and she makes limited appeal at odds-on.

Target

Tritonic makes a quick return after winning the Betfair Exchange Trophy at Ascot, and this is a better target for him than the Champion Hurdle, but he needs to improve again to win at this level. Soaring Glory appeals as a horse to win a Champion Hurdle trial, but he wants a good pace and similar ground, and a small field and forecast heavy rain are both negatives.

3.05 Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (Grade 1) 3m

Paul Nicholls reckons his runners should have the King George between them, but while Frodon got the better of Minella Indo at Down Royal, Henry de Bromhead’s Cheltenham Gold Cup winner is a palpably better horse than the 2020 King George hero, and will be ready for battle here, in contrast to the rusty condition of his seasonal reappearance.

With A Plus Tard always pencilled in for the Savills Chase due to his aversion to going right-handed, this race has long been on the cards for Minella Indo, and he should be a shorter price than he is.

Improvement

Many believe that Minella Indo is particularly suited by Cheltenham, but that is mistaking his best efforts with the way his trainer likes to bring his novices on, and improvement shown at Cheltenham is more about the fact that the Festival was pre-ordained to coincide with the horse’s peak each season.

Last year was an odd one, in that a fall at Leopardstown at Christmas seemed to affect his confidence on his next start when an overwhelming favourite for the Irish Gold Cup. That saw Rachael Blackmore switch to A Plus Tard in the Gold Cup, only for Minella Indo to jump like a buck to win a quality renewal from his stablemate.

On the basis of the above musings, I don’t see Minella Indo struggling with the track at Kempton, assuming he races close to the pace. Bryony Frost stole this contest on Frodon a year ago by getting to the front and getting into a perfect rhythm, before slowing the pace down on the second circuit.

She controlled every aspect of the contest, quickening again when it suited her, and winning cosily from rivals who generally weren’t seen to best effect.

If the others aren’t careful, she will do the same thing again, and someone needs to go forward with him from the start to thwart a repeat.

Guts

It will be interesting to see who has the guts to take on that role in the absence of obvious spoiler Dashel Drasher, and my feeling is that it might be left to Rachael Blackmore to take matters into her own hands.

Unlike many of her English-based counterparts, she won’t be shy of doing just that.

Wetherby Sunday

2.10 William Hill Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m 45yds

Empire Steel should relish the forecast rain at Wetherby, and looks the one to be with in a competitive Rowland Meyrick, having run well on his return at Haydock on ground too quick for him.

He was second to the thriving Strictlyadancer there, that horse completing a hat-trick, and that run showed that a revised handicap mark of 141 will not prove beyond him.

Arresting

Empire Steel ended last season taking on Chantry House and Shan Blue in an Aintree Grade 1, which shows the esteem in which he’s held by Sandy Thomson. Prior to that, he beat Protektorat by a distance at Kelso, and while the runner-up was not at his best, it was a visually arresting performance, and one which suggests that there is more to come from the seven-year-old grey gelding, who has had just seven starts under NH Rules. The more rain which falls, the better his chance here.

Recommended

Jacamar 1.20 Kempton – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365)

Minella Indo 3.05 Kempton – 2pts win @ 3/1 (general)

Empire Steel 2.10 Wetherby – 1pt win @ 6/1 (general)

Rory tipped Ascot winner Annsam @7/1 last week