AT 3.33pm on March 14th 1963, the flag was dropped for the start of a Cheltenham Gold Cup which was won by British jump racing’s brightest young star, the massive six-year-old Mill House.

Hailed as the perfect racehorse by National Hunt fans at the time, he seemed to have the world at his feet, but met his nemesis a year later in the shape of the incomparable Arkle.

At around 3.33pm on March 14th 2023, exactly six decades after Mill House lit up the Cotswolds, the tapes will spring back for the start of the Champion Hurdle, and Britain will again be ready to crown a champion of the ages in the shape of Constitution Hill.

Like Mill House, he’s a six-year-old who has looked a class apart from his contemporaries and is expected to be the shortest-priced favourite in the history of the Champion Hurdle when he lines up on Tuesday.

Tens of thousands will descend on Prestbury Park on that day, caring not a jot for the SP, but yearning for a sight of greatness made equine flesh. They will crowd deep around the paddock to see Constitution Hill, but they will also keep an eager eye on the paddock for the other Grade 1 events, for there might even be a new Arkle lurking there. This is the eternal draw of the Cheltenham Festival.

Champion Hurdle

CAN Constitution Hill be beaten in the Champion Hurdle? It would be a tremendous shock if he were given his superiority in the division to date, and while it could be argued that he’s not had to improve to win the Fighting Fifth and Christmas Hurdles this term, that merely serves to highlight how utterly extraordinary was his win in last year’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.

Despite the Supreme being filled with Grade 1 talent such as Jonbon, Mighty Potter, Dysart Dynamo and Kilcruit, Constitution Hill made them look like second-raters as he scorched to a 22-length victory. Two of those left trailing in his wake are hot favourites for Grade 1 races at this year’s meeting, and that tells the story succinctly. Those grasping at trends for inspiration will take note of the remarkable fact that no winner of the Supreme in its current format has gone on to win the Champion 12 months later despite those races being run over the same course and distance.

State Man appears the only danger, and while his win at last year’s meeting came in the less exalted County Hurdle, he does at least have a more recent precursor for that unusual double, as Rooster Booster made the jump from County to Champion just the two decades ago.

State Man impressed in beating Honeysuckle in the Irish Champion Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival last month, but needs to improve another stone if he’s to topple a peak Constitution Hill. It could happen, and the hot favourite could have an off day, but it seems unlikely.

To quote the legendary Chicago sportswriter Hugh Keough: “The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that’s the way to bet.”

Champion Chase

ENERGUMENE was arguably redeeming his reputation when successful in this race last year, but in truth he had almost certainly run to a higher level despite being beaten by Shishkin on his previous start, and there are now a few questions being asked of the Willie Mullins star after a defeat here in the latest renewal of the Clarence House Chase. He needs to reverse form with Editeur Du Gite and Edwardstone from that run, and it’s not that easy to believe that the white-painted fences were entirely to blame.

Hold-up tactics worked for Energumene last year, but the race ended up falling into his lap, and my view is that he will show his best form when his stride is not checked by an exaggerated waiting ride. He can jump brilliantly when in full flight, but doesn’t impress when needing to fiddle, and the tricky second-last could again prove a bogey.

Despite failing to finish in three of his 11 chase starts, Edwardstone appeals as the best jumper of a fence in this field, or at least on a par with the bold Editeur Du Gite. He impressed when taking the 2022 Arkle and improved further when beating Greaneteen, Shishkin and Gentleman De Mee in the Tingle Creek. His defeat last time was a result of his rider (understandably) giving more respect to Energumene than Editeur Du Gite, and his move to get on terms was a huge effort before the latter rallied to score.

Gentleman De Mee beat Edwardstone at Aintree last spring and also took the Dublin Chase at Leopardstown from a sub-par Blue Lord last time. His good runs make him look top-class, and perhaps he’s a spring horse, but he has too many lacklustre efforts on his CV, and the suspicion is that he needs to dominate, which he will struggle to do here with Editeur Du Gite only knowing one way to race. That pair could easily compromise each other, setting it up for Energumene and Edwardstone, and the latter – while lagging behind on the clock – just seems the most likely to produce his A-game on the day.

Ryanair Chase

A STRONG Irish challenge looked set to ensure domination of this contest at the start of the season, but injury has put paid to the chances of Allaho and Tornado Flyer, while Conflated will go to the Gold Cup and Fakir D’Oudairies to Aintree.

That leaves Blue Lord – demoted from the Champion Chase after surprise defeat in the Dublin Chase – as the shortest-priced Irish runner for a trophy which has crossed the water six times in seven years.

Blue Lord needs to prove his stamina for this extended two and a half miles despite winning the Clonmel Oil over a similar trip earlier in the season. He scrambled home at Clonmel, and runner-up Tornado Flyer emerged as the best horse at the weights. He ran to a higher level when winning over two miles at Leopardstown over Christmas, and I still believe that is his ideal trip.

Willie also has 2022 runner-up Janidil in the race; he returned from a lengthy absence to win the Red Mills Chase at Gowran last month, but he’s raced 10 times in Grade 1 company and won just once, that being a novice win at Fairyhouse’s Easter Festival in 2021.

Fury Road steps back in trip to contest a race his owner sponsors, and has claims on his third to Galopin Des Champs in the Irish Gold Cup. He does stay three miles, however, and although effective at this trip at a stiff track, could find himself caught out in a tactical race.

Those mentioned are vulnerable to something special, and that describes Shishkin, who was on the ropes a year ago, but has been reinvented sharply by Nicky Henderson, looking every bit as good as ever when taking the Ascot Chase after a minor breathing operation last month.

In fairness to Henderson, it took just one run in the Tingle Creek for the Master of Seven Barrows to declare that he would need further than two miles to return to his best, and he saw the two miles and five furlongs at Ascot out very strongly to put any stamina doubts to bed.

There is – given what happened 12 months ago – the possibility that Shishkin will not give his true running, but if he does, he looks to have this contest at his mercy.

Blazing Khal could be the superstar

Stayers’ Hurdle

THE Stayers’ is the most open looking of all the championship races at this year’s Festival, with nine or 10 horses deserving consideration.

Galmoy Hurdle winner Teahupoo was elevated to favouritism when winning at Gowran, with Gavin Cromwell reporting Flooring Porter no more than 50-50 to defend his crown after a training setback in January.

Cromwell’s updates have been more optimistic of late, but doubts remain in terms of his less-than-ideal preparation. Teahupoo disappointed in the Champion Hurdle last year after winning easily at Gowran and needs to prove that what comes easily in the mud on right-handed tracks can be repeated at idiosyncratic Cheltenham. Klassical Dream handles the track, having won the Supreme, but he looked a non-stayer when third in this race 12 months ago, and that puts me off.

Home By The Lee and Blazing Khal have a bit to find on official ratings but have more to offer, particularly Blazing Khal, who returned from injury to record a visually arresting success in the Boyle Hurdle over a trip short of his best.

Charles Byrnes’s gelding sustained a cut in that win, which put his participation in some doubt, but he has barely shifted in the market after that scare, and punters are prepared to put their money on the line despite the warnings. His fragility is a concern, but if there is a superstar in the field, it’s undoubtedly him.

Home By The Lee has won the Lismullen Hurdle and Christmas Hurdle this season, and has improved since finishing sixth a year ago. He has a chance, and is one of the stronger stayers on show, but he wouldn’t want good ground or a tactical race given he can take some driving. The more rain the better for him.

The British challenge is headed by 2022 Mares’ Hurdle winner Marie’s Rock, who would be a big contender to defend her crown but who has repeatedly been nudged towards this race in interviews by Nicky Henderson, who has an able substitute for Tuesday’s race in Epatante. Marie’s Rock stays two miles and five furlongs well, but she can be free, and the combination of the trip and the punishing new course could conspire against her, for all the mares’ allowance brings her right into the picture on ratings.

Paisley Park had no excuses when third to French longshot Gold Tweet in the Cleeve Hurdle. It’s hard to have him on his sixth attempt over course and distance at the Festival, while Gold Tweet’s French record throws doubt on his ability to repeat that shock effort.

Gold Cup

WITH A Plus Tard sidelined since a poor effort in the Betfair Chase, Galopin Des Champs has taken over the favourite’s mantle for the Gold Cup, and a powerful finishing effort to land the Irish Gold Cup in February seems to have silenced those who marked him down as lacking stamina for this three-mile-two-furlong test.

He looks a more controlled racehorse than the one who tipped up with the race at his mercy in last season’s Turners Novices’ Chase, and if I had a concern, it would be that he had a very punishing race last time, coming back to the winner’s enclosure with head bowed. He may not be over those exertions.

Back in second in the Irish Gold Cup was stablemate Stattler, who lacks the favourite’s gears at a bare three miles, but stays really well and is a sound jumper. He doesn’t need the mud by any means, but if the ground turns testing, he will see his race out better than the vast majority, having taken the National Hunt Chase a year ago.

Minella Indo beat Stattler in the New Year’s Day Chase at Tramore, albeit by a small margin and with better track position, and he merits respect despite his seniority, having a Cheltenham Grade 1 record which reads 1212.

Ahoy Senor could be very dangerous from the front in the Gold Cup \ Healy Racing

He won this race in 2021 and looked like repeating that on the turn for home last year, only for A Plus Tard to show a rare turn of foot from before the last fence to the line. On that form, he has little to fear from Protektorat or Royale Pagaille.

Bravemansgame impressed in the King George but the Grade 1 races at Kempton’s Christmas meeting have proven unreliable guides to Festival success over the years. Paul Nicholls’s horse was well beaten in the Ballymore here and wasn’t deemed worth running in the Brown Advisory last year, so he looks poor value.

Bravemansgame has beaten Ahoy Senor comprehensively the three times they have met in autumn/winter, but Ahoy Senor is a spring horse, and has got the better of his old rival at Aintree for the past two years.

He was second in the Brown Advisory last year despite a poor round of jumping, and got back on track when winning the Cotswold Chase last time. That form isn’t good enough, but his record of improvement in spring brings him into the equation, and he is dangerous if allowed to stride on.

The siting of the first two fences is in his favour and if he find a rhythm remains capable of a huge effort.