Cheltenham Saturday

1:55 Paddy Power Cheltenham Countdown Pod Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m 4f 127y

Coole Cody was below form here on New Year’s Day, but the soft ground that day was no good to him, and on a quicker surface at this track, his record is 244F1, with the ‘F’ coming when leading at the second-last fence in the Paddy Power this season.

He is often harried for the lead here, but has just the out-of-form Torn And Frayed to press him here, and it looks likely that he will get an easy time of things in front.

If so, it’s very hard to see him out of the frame, and he should arguably be favourite given he’s still on a fair mark, just 4lb higher than when winning the Racing Post Gold Cup over course and distance last month.

2:30 Paddy Power Cotswold Chase (Grade 2) 3m 1f 56y

I can’t bring myself to back King George flop Chantry House at odds-on, especially with the decision to reach for cheek-pieces suggesting he may have been the architect of his own defeat at Kempton.

This is easier, but it’s also a stiffer test, and I’m not convinced that winning over this trip at Aintree last spring really proved his stamina, as he was struggling to get to grips with Espoir De Romay when left clear.

Aye Right has his limitations at graded level, but he is completely reliable, and looked better than ever when winning the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle on his latest start.

Normally he would be one to avoid conceding a penalty in a race of this nature, but it’s hard to be positive about the others, with Santini on the downgrade and Simply The Betts looking a very dubious stayer.

Harriet Graham’s genuine stayer is only 1lb inferior to the favourite on official adjusted ratings, so won’t have to improve to win unless Chantry House belatedly steps forward.

He is rather a default option on that basis, but sometimes that’s the way to go, and he has less to prove than any of his rivals.

3:05 Welsh Marches Stallions At Chapel Stud Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m 7f 213y

Champ is certainly a better betting option that the same connections’ Chantry House in the previous race, and if he repeats the form shown in the Long Walk, then he will surely win again, but it’s worth recalling that he did not go on from a highly satisfactory return last season, and has clearly had an issue or two to have been seen so rarely since his remarkable RSA Chase success.

There won’t be mush pace on here unless the inconsistent Lisnagar Oscar reverts to the tactics which nearly won this race in 2020.

I don’t think that’s likely, and even if he leads, he’s been dropping himself out prematurely in recent runs, and if he hangs fire in front, then this will develop into a sprint.

That won’t be against Champ exactly, but it will definitely suit McFabulous, who didn’t quite get home behind Thyme Hill and Paisley Park in Newbury’s Long Distance Hurdle last season, but who will relish the good ground, and is capable of giving Champ a black eye granted the run of the race.

McFabulous was entitled to need the run in the Relkeel here on New Year’s Day, but impressed with how he saw that out on unsuitably soft ground, and is undoubtedly a greater force when racing on a sound surface.

2:10 Yorkshire Rose Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m128y

Miranda is odds-on to repeat last year’s win in this race, and she arguably put up a career-best to win at Ludlow last time, having briefly planted herself at the start, thereby gifting her rivals a big advantage.

I have an issue with marking a horse up for showing temperament, however, and while she had the advantage of beating inferior rivals last time, she cannot afford any lapses against the likes of Anna Bunina and Western Victory, while she has no form on the good or quicker ground she’s likely to experience here.

Quite what Tom Bellamy thought he was doing on Western Victory at Ascot last week only he knows, but it was a poorly judged effort to go off as hard as he did on Emma Lavelle’s recent acquisition.

He won’t make the same mistake again, and the notion put forward in places last week that she is an out-and-out stayer who needed an aggressive ride is at odds with her racing record.

She may have won over three miles at Clonmel, but she is fully effective at two miles on good ground, and her record at 2¼m or shorter away from soft ground reads: 12212113.

If she hadn’t run at Ascot, Western Victory – a superior mare to Anna Bunina on Irish form – would have been a strong second favourite here, but because of an aberration by her rider she is as big as 13/2 here, and that makes no sense to me.

2:45 Albert Bartlett River Don Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) 3m84y

My Bobby Dazzler is an obvious starting point in the River Don, as his latest fourth in open handicap company at Cheltenham suggests that he is just about the pick of the field in form terms, and this three-time Aintree winner should find Doncaster’s long straight right up his street.

It’s encouraging that My Bobby Dazzler has shown winning form on good and heavy ground, although I’d say he’s best suited by a sound surface as long as he is given a suitable test of stamina, as he will here.

Mel Rowley may not be a familiar name to all, but she runs a very successful yard with husband Phil, and while the onus has largely been on pointing and pre-training, she has quickly shown she can produce the goods since shifting focus to racing under National Hunt rules in recent times.

Like many of her horses, My Bobby Dazzler is an ex-pointer, and as a second-season novice, he has experience and maturity on his side which is often a big advantage in staying novice hurdles.

He will stay beyond three miles as he showed when rallying after the last at Cheltenham, and is just the type to run into the frame at a big price in the Albert Bartlett in March, where experience has trumped potential on many occasions in the past.

3:20 Sky Bet Handicap Chase (Listed) 2m 7f 214y

With good ground a worry for some of these, and quite a few arriving out of form, this is not as competitive as it ought to be, and it’s not hard to narrow the field.

The Kerry Lee pair of Demachine and Storm Control (coolly handled by Daire McConville at Newbury) are on my shortlist, and may feature in exotic bets, but marginal preference is for Debece, who has been on my radar for what feels like years, but has had his career interrupted by a number of issues, one of which being a regular need to have his breathing tweaked.

He switched from Tim Vaughan to Dan Skelton last spring, and ran a huge race on his only start for his current yard at Sandown on Imperial Cup day, jumping well and travelling like the best horse at the weights, only to falter late under a typically aggressive Harry Skelton ride.

I felt that he would have won under slightly different tactics, and the form of that contest has worked out very well, with the winner Fortescue winning next time, and placed off a 15lb higher mark in the Peter Marsh last week. Innisfree Lad – third at Sandown – has won two handicaps since of similar or higher marks, and fifth-placed Quick Wave bolted up on her return earlier in the month after wind surgery.

Debece has had wind surgery since his Sandown second, and while he’s now 5lb higher, that looks fully justified based on collateral form. He’s also done the majority of his winning on good ground, so the return to a sound surface is a bonus.

Skelton knows that opportunities with a horse like this are limited, and I’m certain he will be fully fit for this contest.

The other potential target is the Grand National, but he needs to win a race in the next fortnight if he’s got any chance of making the field for that contest.

Recommended

Aye Right 2:30 Cheltenham – 2pts win @ 4/1 (general)

McFabulous 3:05 Cheltenham – 1pt win @ 4/1 (general)

Western Victory 2:10 Doncaster – 2pts win @ 13/2 (Bet365, 6/1 general)

My Bobby Dazzler 2:45 Doncaster – 1pt win @ 9/2 (general)

Debece 3:20 Doncaster – 1pt win @ 8/1 (general)