IT’S something a bit odd that the Randox Grand National (5.15) is the richest handicap of the year, yet the actual handicap for the race is the most inaccurate of the year.

That is because the weights for the National are published in mid February, which gives connections lots of time to run their horses after that cut-off point. So of the final field of 40 today, 23 runners have had their marks changed since the weights were published, illustrated by the adjacent table.

Perhaps a 1lb change either way will make little difference to some runners but it is worth noting that the last three winners of the National were ahead of the handicapper as such - Tiger Roll (2lbs better off in 2018), Tiger Roll (8lbs in 2019) and Minella Times (4lbs last year).

Eight horses should be carrying more weight that they have been allotted, and top of the list Two For Gold, whose excellent second to Fakir D’Oudairies in the Grade 1 Ascot Chase was a career best and prompted a 5lb rise in his rating.

However the Ascot Chase wouldn’t be a usual source of National winners, not least because it’s run over a significantly shorter trip. On the same card, Fortescue just held off Fiddlerontheroof in the Swinley Chase over three miles, with the former 4lbs well in and the latter 2lbs.

Collateral form

Fortescue got into the race yesterday alongside Eclair Surf, who is officially 4lbs well in also but arguably could have plenty more if you tasked the handicapper with judging him on his collateral form - he had the Ultima one-two Corach Rambler and Gericault Roque well held in the Classic Chase at Warwick and then was only two lengths away from seriously impressive Scottish Grand National winner Win My Wings in the Eider.

He looks comfortably the best handicapped horse in the race and with proven stamina, he has to be a big player, but will he handle the unique nature of the National fences? That is the conundrum facing punters who may well prefer to adopt a tried and tested profile like Any Second Now or last year’s winner Minella Times.

The other horse to note is Delta Work, who the handicapper has stuck to his guns as far as Tiger Roll is concerned and left the Gigginstown horse on his National mark of 160, after he just got the better of his 161-rated stablemate in the Cross Country.

Of course, that race has been a good guide in recent seasons through the dual National winner but also through the likes of Cause Of Causes and Balthazar King who both finished second.