HISTORY tells you that it’s not going to be easy for Midnight Shadow to win the Racing Post Gold Cup today at Cheltenham, four weeks after he won the Paddy Power Gold Cup.

The November/December Gold Cup double has been done in the past. Pegwell Bay did the double in 1988, Senor El Betrutti did the double in 1997, but it is a rarely achieved double.

Dublin Flyer won both races, but not in the same year. So did Fondmort. So did Fifty Dollars More. However, Exotic Dancer in 2006 is the last horse to win both races in the same year.

Jonjo O’Neill’s horse won the December Gold Cup off a handicap rating of 149, 10lb higher than the mark off which he won the November Gold Cup. Significantly, he finished second to Kauto Star in the King George on his next race, and he finished second to the same Kauto Star in the Gold Cup the following March. That’s how good Exotic Dancer was.

You can argue the case for Midnight Shadow today. He is only 7lb higher than he was last month, not 10lb higher. Also, he might have won by further than the three-parts of a length winning margin had he not stumbled on landing over the last and nearly come down, and lost all that momentum. But this is a deep race, and he is probably priced up about right at 8/1.

Dostal Phil ran a big race to finish fourth in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. Held up early on, he was well back in the field as they raced down the hill, but he stayed on really strongly over the last two fences and up the hill to take fourth place, just over three lengths behind Midnight Run.

Mark up

You can probably mark Philip Hobbs’ horse up at least a little on the bare form of that run, given how far back he was in the field, and how much ground he had to make up.

His stamina was unproven going into the race, so you can understand the conservative tactics. He had never before completed over a distance in excess of two and a quarter miles.

But the strength with which he finished off his race up the hill left you in no doubt about his stamina for today’s trip, today’s stiffer test should suit, and it will not be a surprise if he is ridden at least a little more forward today than he was last month. And runner-up Protektorat has since come out and run out an impressive winner of the Many Clouds Chase at Aintree, despite racing too freely early on, thereby giving ballast to the form of the Paddy Power Gold Cup.

The handicapper raised J.P. McManus’ horse by just 1lb for that run to a mark of 143, and that was fair.

It means that he meets Midnight Shadow on 6lb more advantageous terms for just over three lengths, and he meets Lalor on 1lb better terms for a length.

As well as that, that was his first run since he unseated his rider at the fifth last fence in the EMS Copiers Novice Handicap Chase that Asterion Forlonge won at Punchestown last April, so, while he can go well fresh, there is every chance that he will come on for it, especially now that his stamina isn’t in question.

And it was just his sixth steeplechase, so he has plenty of scope to progress further.

Competitive

There are many with chances, as befits a competitive Cheltenham handicap chase. Lalor ran well in the Paddy Power Gold Cup to finish third, on his first run for Paul Nicholls, his first run since a wind operation and his first in a tongue-tie.

The cheekpieces are back on today too, and they could elicit further improvement.

Coole Cody fell at the second last fence in the Paddy Power Gold Cup when still in front and still in with a big chance, while Zanza finished off his race well from an improbable position to force a dead-heat for sixth place with Simply The Betts. It may be, however, that Cheltenham does not play to the strengths of Dostal Phil’s stable companion.

By contrast, Fusil Raffles loves Cheltenham, he has won twice there, once on the Old Course and once on the New Course, and he finished second behind Chantry House in the Marsh Chase at the Festival in March.

He is interesting, back down to this intermediate trip after winning the Charlie Hall Chase, albeit fairly fortuitously. But at the prices, Dostal Phil may represent the best value in the race.

Doncaster

And Takeit Easy may represent the value in the Bet365 Handicap Hurdle at Doncaster.

Pam Sly’s horse was beaten last time by Onemorefortheroad at Huntingdon, but they didn’t go a great pace in that race early on, and that was not ideal.

Also, the winner came out next time and won the Listed Gerry Feilden Hurdle at Newbury, while the third, Ingleby Hollow, won a competitive handicap hurdle at Doncaster two and a half weeks later.

Takeit Easy was seen to better effect on his previous run, when he stayed on well to get the better of Tommy’s Oscar in a conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle at Wetherby, the pair of them finishing well clear of their only two remaining rivals.

Tommy’s Oscar improved on that last time when he won a good handicap hurdle at Haydock, thereby enhancing the form of the Wetherby race too.

It means that Takeit Easy meets Ann Hamilton’s horse on 6lb better terms compared to their Wetherby meeting, without taking jockeys’ claims into account, despite the fact that he beat him by one and a half lengths there.

He is only 2lb higher than he was that day, on a mark of 134, and that looks like a fair mark.

Sonigino is obviously a horse who has potential, and he could step forward for his first run for Paul Nicholls at Haydock last time, but he is priced up defensively and, at the prices, Takeit Easy is the bet.

Recommended

Dostal Phil, 1.50 Cheltenham, 7/1 (generally), 1 point win,

Takeit Easy, 2.05 Doncaster, 9/2 (generally), 1 point win,