THE Randox Grand National is a changed race, a changing race. It’s not just that the landings have been levelled or that the distance has been shortened slightly or that the bellies of the fences have been softened or that the same fences can now be bypassed, it’s also – perhaps consequently – that the type of horse that runs in the race has changed.

In 2013, for example, the bottom weight was rated 131. These days, a rating of 131 doesn’t have a chance of getting into the race. Last year, the bottom weight was rated 145. Today, you needed to be 143 or higher to make the top 40.

The profile of the ideal ‘National horse’ has changed too. Experience and durability used to be the key attributes – the wizened warrior for the hard road – and a low weight. There was only one winner aged younger than nine between Party Politics in 1992 and Many Clouds in 2015, and 17 of the 25 winners between Little Polvier in 1989 and Pineau De Re in 2014 – including all five between 2010 and 2014 – were aged in double figures. Also, no horse carried more than 11st to victory between Corbiere in 1983 and Hedgehunter in 2005.

By contrast, the last six winners were all aged eight or nine, and four of the six were eight. Also, two of the six carried 11st 5lb or more. Interestingly, of the 30 places available in those six Grand Nationals, places one to five in each, 20 were filled by horses aged younger than 10. So you can easily argue that you start your search with an eight- or a nine-year-old, and don’t be put off by a weight in excess of 11st.

Longhouse Poet fits that description, but Martin Brassil’s horse has much more to recommend him besides. A talented novice hurdler, third behind Envoi Allen in the Grade 1 Lawlors of Naas Novice Hurdle, he was beaten in his first three chases last season, but he was only beaten by five lengths by Janidil over two miles and three furlongs in a beginners’ chase at Naas, and he won his beginners’ chase when he stepped up to an extended three miles at Punchestown on New Year’s Eve last season. He stayed on well that day to get the better of subsequent Troytown Chase winner Run Wild Fred, and subsequent Punchestown Grand National Trial winner The Big Dog.

Off the track for almost a year after that, he returned at Limerick over Christmas in the Tim Duggan Chase, and he showed the benefit of that run when he stepped up in trip again and won the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park. Again, he had to be gritty that day, but he was, he travelled through his race well, and he stayed on determinedly to get home by three-parts of a length from Franco De Port.

The Yeats gelding has raced over an extended three miles just twice in his life, and he has won on both occasions, probably putting up the two best performances of his career.

He is only eight and he has raced just six times over fences, but he proved in the Thyestes that he could operate in a big-field handicap. He races off a handicap mark of 155 today, 10lb higher than his Thyestes mark, but he is progressive enough to be able to cope with that type of mark. And he is classy, he had the class to finish third in two Grade 1 hurdles, and to take his chance in the Ballymore Hurdle at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival.

Martin Brassil sent out Numbersixvalverde to win the Grand National in 2006, and he, like Longhouse Poet, was also a Thyestes Chase winner. Good or fast ground would be a worry for Sean and Bernardine Mulryan’s horse, but you know that it won’t be good or fast, and good to soft or softer should be fine. And in Darragh O’Keeffe he has a highly talented young rider who was superb in defeat on Dancing On My Own in the Red Rum Chase on Thursday.

It’s a fascinating race, it always is, in which you can make cases for many, including Any Second Now and Delta Work, as well as Enjoy D’Allen and Escaria Ten and Mount Ida and Minella Times. Best of the British could be Éclair Surf, now that he has got into the race, while Two For Gold could out-run big odds, but Longhouse Poet is the bet.

Betway Handicap Chase

Shan Bleu is a worthy favourite for the Betway Handicap Chase, an hour before the Grand National. Dan Skelton’s horse was well beaten in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham, but he has never been at his best at Cheltenham. In three runs there, he has never finished any better than fifth.

A flat track seems to suit him better, his best performances have been at Kempton and Sandown and Wetherby, and he would have been an impressive winner of the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby in October had he not come down at the second last fence.

That said, he is short, and it is a slight worry that he was well beaten in the Mildmay Chase last year on his only run to date at Aintree.

Oscar Elite could be the value against him. Colin Tizzard’s horse was a high-class staying novice hurdler last season, he finished second in the Albert Bartlett Hurdle at Cheltenham and third in the Sefton Hurdle at Aintree. He hasn’t won yet over fences, he was travelling well when he fell at the third last fence on his chasing bow in the chase that Threeunderthrufive won at Cheltenham’s November meeting, and it took him a while to find his metier after that. But he ran a big race at the Cheltenham Festival to finish third behind Corach Rambler in the Ultima Chase.

He travelled like a likely winner down the hill that day, he challenged the leader Gericault Roque between the final two fences, but he just wasn’t as strong as Corach Rambler up the run-in. He may have had an excuse though, he reportedly bled from the nose, and the first three finished nicely clear of their rivals.

He raced off an effective mark of 138 at Cheltenham – he was 4lb out of the handicap – and he is just 2lb higher today, and that gives him a real chance. Most of his good runs have been at Cheltenham and Chepstow, both undulating tracks, but he proved in the Sefton Hurdle last year that he could also operate at Aintree, and he could go close today.

Recommended

Longhouse Poet, 1 point each-way, 5.15 Aintree, 16/1 (generally)

Oscar Elite, 1 point each-way, 4.15 Aintree, 7/1 (generally)