ON this day last year, Trueshan contested the Northumberland Plate having missed Royal Ascot because of the fast ground and, racing off a mark of 118 and carrying 10st 4lb (less Rhys Clutterbuck’s 5lb claim), he finished sixth, almost four lengths behind Nicholas T.

This year, it’s as you were. Trueshan side-stepped Ascot because of the fast ground, and he goes on to Newcastle, 2lb higher than last year, rated 120 and set to carry 10st 8lb, with Hollie Doyle for company, and it’s a while since the classic-winning jockey claimed 5lb.

Even so, you can argue the case. You can easily argue that Hollie Doyle is worth more than any apprentice’s claim, and, as importantly, Trueshan hasn’t stood still since last year.

Four wins

On the contrary, he has won a Goodwood Cup, a Prix du Cadran and a Long Distance Cup, and he started off this season by winning the Listed Further Flight Stakes at Nottingham.

Alan King’s horse has run four times since this day last year, and he has won four times, twice at Group 1 level and once at Group 2 level.

Easy ground

But those four wins were all on easy ground. While he sprang a 33/1 shock in beating the 2020 Northumberland Plate winner Caravan Of Hope in a Class 5 novice stakes at Wolverhampton as a three-year-old on his only other run on Tapeta, on any all-weather surface, it may be that he is not as good on Tapeta as he is on soft or heavy turf.

It will be some performance if he can win a Northumberland Plate under 10st 8lb.

Popular

You can understand why Rajinsky has been popular. Now trained by Hugo Palmer, who won the race two years ago with the afore-mentioned Caravan Of Hope, the Zoffany gelding was promoted to third place in the race last year when he was with Tom Dascombe.

He has been in good form this season, winning on his seasonal return at Ripon and running a fine race last time to finish third behind Cleveland in the Chester Cup.

He is up another 1lb though for that run, which takes him up to a mark of 101, 8lb higher than the mark off which he finished third last year. He may well be up to it but, a six-year-old who has run 27 times, he is short enough for all of that.

Attractive

Valley Forge is a more attractive betting proposition at a bigger price.

Winner of the Melrose Handicap at York last August, Andrew Balding’s horse shaped encouragingly on his debut this season at Newmarket’s Guineas meeting, his first run since being gelded, when he kept on well over a mile and six furlongs to take sixth place behind the George Baker-trained Cemhaan.

He stepped forward from that nicely last time when he stepped up in trip to two miles for the first time, and just got up to beat Golden Flame in a handicap at Haydock.

He did well to win that day, he had to come late and wide against a talented Mark Johnston horse who had had a relatively easy time of it in front.

Progressive

The handicapper raised him by 4lb for that win to a mark of 93, but he is progressive, and he can be marked up on the bare form of that run, and he remains unexposed at two miles.

Given the strength with which he went to the line at Haydock, on his first attempt over today’s trip, there is every chance that he will appreciate the greater stamina test that today’s contest should present.

His wide draw is intuitively a negative but, actually, statistically it is a positive.

In six renewals of the Northumberland Plate run on Tapeta, 23 of the 30 top-five places have been filled by horses who were drawn 11 or higher, and four of the seven low-drawn places were filled in one renewal.

Over-priced

Earlier in the day, Glen Shiel looks over-priced in the Chipchase Stakes. Archie Watson’s horse hasn’t won since he won the Champions Sprint Stakes on Champions’ Day at Ascot in October 2020, providing Hollie Doyle with her first Group 1 win, but he has been highly tried in the interim, and he was only just beaten by Creative Force in the same race last October.

His two runs this season haven’t been bad. Admittedly, he will probably have to progress at least a little on his Greenlands Stakes run at the Curragh last time if he is going to win today, but there is every chance that he will.

We know that he goes well at Newcastle, his record there reads 13211, and he is 211 over today’s course and distance, and he is well drawn in stall nine towards the near side.

It is easy to see Hollie Doyle getting him into a prominent position from early, close to the stands’ rail and, if he can settle into a nice racing rhythm through the first three furlongs, he could go close.

Recommended

Glen Shiel, 1 point win, 2.25 Newcastle, 11/2 (generally)

Valley Forge, 1 point each-way, 3.30 Newcastle, 13/2 (generally)