THEY talk a lot about the draw in the Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup. They say, watch the Silver Cup, that will give you a good steer. And that’s all logical talk, the draw can be key in any big-field six-furlong race, and taking a guide from a race that is run about an hour earlier, over the same course and distance, on the same ground, makes all the sense in the world.

Until you check in with recent history.

The last three Silver Cup winners were drawn, respectively, two, four and five. The last three Gold Cup winners were drawn 25, 13 and 24. In last year’s Silver Cup, the first four home were all drawn 10 or lower, and three of them were drawn six or lower.

Then in the Gold Cup, Bielsa came with his solo run down the near side from stall 25, and three of the four horses who got closest to him were drawn 15 and higher. Actually, Great Ambassador did well to get as close as he did from stall one, finishing clear of his rivals on the far rail.

Repeat bid

Bielsa has a chance of emulating last year’s feat. No horse has won back-to-back renewals of the race since Heronslea won it in 1930 and followed up in 1931, but you can argue the case for Bielsa. Kevin Ryan’s horse was an impressive winner last year off a mark of 98, and he is only 1lb higher now.

He hasn’t won since, but it is probable that his trainer, who has won the race five times, started with today and worked back when he was planning Bielsa’s 2022 campaign. It is probable that he will be primed for today.

That said, he has been well found by the market this time, and he is seven now. That’s another statistic that he has to overcome, given that no horse aged older than six has won the race since Hard To Figure in 1993, and, at a much bigger price, Zarzyni represents better value.

Easy winner

An easy winner of a Gowran maiden over seven furlongs on his racecourse debut as a juvenile when he was with Michael Halford, he has been in good form this season for David and Nicola Barron. He has run some fine races in defeat, and he kept on well to win a five-furlong handicap at Musselburgh in April on easy ground, when he had to go make his ground away from the stands rail.

He raced off a mark of 99 that day, but he proved that he was well able for today’s mark of 104 when he finished third behind Mountain Peak in a handicap at Ascot off that mark in July. He did better than the bare form of that run suggests too, because he raced towards the far side from his low draw in a race in which the stands-side horses dominated. He did best of those who raced towards the far side.

You have to forgive him a poor run at York’s Ebor meeting last month, but he was slowly away, he just never got into the race. Also, it was his first run at York, and we know that some horses just don’t operate on the Knavesmire.

All his recent runs have been over five or five and a half furlongs, but six furlongs suits him well too, and the strength with which he went to the line at Ascot on his penultimate run over the minimum trip on a stiff track suggested that a step back up in trip should suit. He can handle fast ground as well as easy ground, and he could out-run decent odds.

Phantom Flight is a worthy favourite for the Listed Virgin Bet Doonside Cup earlier in the day. James Horton’s horse did well to get as close as he got to New London in a handicap at Newmarket’s July meeting, when he didn’t have a lot of luck in-running, and he stepped forward from that last time at York when he ran out an impressive winner of an all-aged Class 2 handicap.

Remains progressive

A 10lb hike for that win leaves him on a mark of 108, 3lb superior to Royal Champion, one year his elder, but Royal Champion is classy too and he remains progressive.

An impressive winner of a handicap at Epsom on Derby weekend, Roger Varian’s horse wasn’t beaten far in the Group 3 Rose of Lancaster Stakes at Haydock last month on ground that was probably faster than ideal.

He stepped forward from that last time on easy ground in a Group 3 race at Windsor, when he finished a close-up third behind the talented-on-his-day Regal Reality and the 116-rated Grocer Jack, to whom he got closer than he had in the Rose of Lancaster Stakes.

That was just his seventh race, and just his third since being gelded, so he retains plenty of scope for further progression. Ground on the easy side of good should be ideal. He could run a big race.

Recommended:

Royal Champion, 1pt win, 1.55 Ayr, 7/2 (generally [guaranteed])

Zarzyni, 1pt each-way, 3.40 Ayr, 20/1 (generally [guaranteed])