RYANAIR WORLD HURDLE

(Grade 1) 3m

NATURE OF THE RACE

The World Hurdle is the least fashionable and usually the weakest, of the four championship races. The field often lacks depth and multiple winners are common, often outclassing their field.

Traditionally in the World Hurdle they have gone steadily and that has meant the form from the similarly run key trials has held up well. Winners possess a turn of foot and invariably have shown graded form at two and a half mile and sometimes at two miles. Out and out stayers don’t win very often.

There tend to be two types of winners. The first is a proven three-mile graded hurdle performer that is usually unbeaten in the key trials during the season. The second is a classy horse stepping up from about two and a half mile for the first time.

MULTIPLE WINNERS

The 15 renewals this century are shared between only nine horses. The great Big Buck’s won four, Inglis Drever three and Baracouda two.

All those three multiple winners were outclassing their fields in most of their victories. It’s arguable that the trends since the turn of the century should be looked at more in terms of those nine individual horses rather than the 15 renewals.

Cole Harden seeks to become another repeat winner. Last season his record in the recognised trials was unusually poor, but he’s unusually ground dependent. If he gets his favoured quick ground again then he’s a big player.

TRIALS FORM

The pace of the World Hurdle tends to be similar to that of the trials, it’s not surprising that the form tends to hold up. In fact it’s rare that the World Hurdle winner is beaten in any of the three-mile conditions hurdles earlier in the season.

Until last season, World Hurdle winners this century were 14/16 in such races earlier that season. (The only two to have been beaten were defending champions Inglis Drever who still came out the best horse at level weights when beaten in the Cleeve, and Baracouda who was beaten under a comedy ride in the Long Walk.)

However, that all changed last season with Cole Harden, who was a bit of a trends buster all round, having been beaten in both the Long Distance and the Cleeve, (after winning the West Yorkshire).

With this form clearly on show, the market has been a good guide. Cole Harden was the equal sixth choice of the punters when winning at 14/1 last season, but all of the other 14 winners this century had come from the front four in the market, (the biggest SP being 17/2.) Even after Cole Harden’s 14/1 win, the average SP of the winners of this century is still only a little over 9/2.

SPEED NEEDED

The fact that they traditionally go steadily in the World Hurdle has meant that to win a horse needed plenty of basic speed. Of the nine individual horses to have won the race this century, eight had previously won at least a Grade 2 at a trip shorter than 2m5f; Cole Harden again being the only one not to have done so.

From an ante-post perspective that has meant that the winner has either been an established performer at or near the front of the market - or they are unfindable. An example of a contender from the latter category is Prince Of Scars who would have been a fair bit bigger than the 33/1 bar in the October ante-post prices box at that time, as recent winners Solwhit and More Of That were.

That touch of class from a graded hurdle win at shorter than 2m5f is brought to the table by a number of this season’s possible contenders. Kilcooley (National Spirit) is such a contender if he gets to line up, as is Annie Power (Ascot Hurdle) in the unlikely event she runs. You could argue that winning a 2m4f handicap off 158 as Saphir Du Rheu did, (Welsh Champion Hurdle,) is showing a similar level of form. Don’t underestimate how important a guide having demonstrated this sort of turn of foot tends to be.

STAMINA

Five of the nine individual horses to have won this century had proven their stamina, at or around three miles, by winning a recognised trial before their initial victory, which covers 11 of the 15 actual renewals.

However, four of the nine had not. None of More Of That, Solwhit, Inglis Drever or Bacchanal had even run beyond 2m5½f.

Class counts for a lot in the World Hurdle and while you clearly need to judge whether such a horse will stay, they do so more often that the market thinks. Finding the winner is usually about choosing between the proven three miler with lots of 1s in its form, and the classy type stepping up to three for the first time. This season’s contenders from the latter camp may include Aux Ptits Soins, (and Vroum Vroum Mag if you consider she hasn’t proved her stamina by outclassing her opposition in mares’ races.)

LACK OF IRISH

Rather than describe the race as one where Irish-trained runners have a poor record, (only Solwhit has won since Dorans Pride in 1995,) I’d term it more a lack of interest. Irish connections tend to have a ‘traditional’ view that if you have a good staying prospect, you put it over fences sooner rather than later. Willie Mullins’ potential contender Vroum Vroum Mag looks to have been aimed at the race as an afterthought and there has to be a concern that she’s not battled hardened enough.

The form of the main Irish three-mile conditions hurdles is usually a fair bit weaker than the British equivalents. Prince Of Scars, Alpha Des Obeux and Martello Tower are all likely runners. Whether any of them has the basic speed for this is open to question, though Alpha Des Obeaux looks much the most likely of the three to have the toe to win a World Hurdle.

RATINGS AWRY

Despite this being a predictable race, the top-rated horses actually have a poor record. Only defending champions, (Big Buck’s three times, Inglis Drever and Baracouda once each,) have been top rated this century. Interestingly, in every other renewal this century, the top-rated horse has been beaten. Only one of those beaten top-rated horses, Baracouda in 2004, was a defending champion.

In the eight renewals where the defending champion didn’t run, the ratings haven’t worked out – the last three winners have been well down the ratings – Cole Harden was fifth highest, More Of That sixth and Solwhit 10th.

HEADGEAR

Since the blinkered Nomadic Way won in 1992, 56 horses in different sorts of headgear have tried without success. The blinkered Celestial Halo in 2013 and Golden Cross, who wore cheek pieces in 2006, have done best finishing second.

Plenty of those 56 went off at big prices, but last year Zarkandar (blinkers) went off 6/1 and Lieutenant Colonel (cheekpieces) at 7/1 and At Fishers Cross (cheekpieces) went off at 9/1 the year before. Alpha Des Obeaux won last time sporting first time cheekpieces and it’ll be interesting to see if they work again at Cheltenham.

KEY RACES

With multiple winners common, last year’s Ryanair World Hurdle has obviously been a good guide. Baracouda won in 2002 and 2003, Inglis Drever missed the 2006 renewal but won in 2005, 2007 and 2008, and Big Buck’s rattled up his imperious four-timer between 2009-2012.

It’s not been a good race for horses that were beaten previously. The last horse to win having been beaten in the race before was Iris’s Gift in 2004, (and he’d been a close second as a novice the previous season.) That’s bad news for last year’s runner-up Saphir Du Rheu.

Of the three main British trials during the main season, all of which have proved good guides, the best has been the Grade 2 bet365 Long Distance Hurdle over three miles at Newbury’s Hennessy card in late November. Cole Harden was the sixth winner to have contested the Long Distance in the last decade, but the first to be beaten in it. The JLT Long Walk Hurdle over 3m½f at Ascot in December is the only Grade 1 in Britain for staying hurdlers before the festival. Six winners this century have run in the Long Walk, all six completing the double. Thistlecrack has won both races in good style, earning his place at the top of ante-post lists and also won the Grade 2 galliardhomes.com Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham’s late January meeting sauntering clear on the bit. The Cleeve has been a good guide since it was made a three-mile event in 2005. Cole Harden became the fifth winner to have come out of 11 runnings of the three-mile Cleeve.

KEY TRENDS

KEY TREND

POSITIVE TRENDS

NEGATIVE TRENDS

CONCLUSION

The trends suggest Thistlecrack and COLE HARDEN are the two to focus on here and with one horse trading around 11/10 and the other one 8/1, the selection has to be last year’s champion, Cole Harden. Trainer Warren Greatrex has been very vocal in recent weeks suggesting his stable star will be a completely different horse on better ground. His six and a half length defeat to Thistlecrack can be excused as he probably needed the run and was unsuited by the soft ground, as can his defeat on heavy ground in the Relkeel. Cole Harden looks a huge each-way player at 8/1, especially with the current second favourite Annie Power unlikely to run.

Of the others Kilcooley ranks as an ideal candidate but all of this best form is on a deep surface and is hard to be fancied on the likely better ground. Nichols Canyon would also appear to have a great chance if lining-up, but is probably going to turn up in the Champion Hurdle.

Bettrends Advice

Cole Harden (each-way) at 8/1 (general)

*Tip advised by the Bettrends Team on February 24th

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