Anne Marie Duff takes a quick mid-season look at how some of the top contests are shaping up

IN times past, talk of Cheltenham favourites and ante-post markets and horses quoted at odds-on prices would be well under wraps until after the Christmas racing period.

But with a winter cold snap break and the best jump racing now centring around the Christmas Festivals, the Dublin Racing Festival and perhaps Newbury’s February fixture, there’s an ever-increasing posse of pundits and punters only too eager to access the early state of play.

You can go Off The Fence, Over The Fence, Up the Ante, Down the Hill and round the Mulberry bush, and still sit on the fence until the bookie enhancements and NRNBs appear by February.

That said, some of those early season shots may well have many rivals ducking for cover already this year.

With the Mares’ Hurdle now offered as a distinct possibility for Honeysuckle, the possibility arises that there will be four odds-on favourites in the four Grade 1s on the opening day of the Festival. Dilution or damn good horses?

The weekend brought two elements to the Champion Hurdle market. Within a few hours Paddy Brennan had revealed on Luck On Sunday of the lads who had ridden favourite Constitution Hill at home and who spoke in awe of what the horse could do.

Later in the day at Cork, Henry de Bromhead voiced the possibility that defending champion Honeysuckle might not take on the new pretender but be diverted to the Mares’ Hurdle, a race she won in 2020.

But where’s the fighting spirt, the never be afraid of one horse? The Champion Hurdle has a history littered with its share of disasters, not that we want reminders of Valiramix and Our Conor. And for odds-on favourites, try Annie Power (1/2) in the Mares’, and Douvan (2/9) in the Champion Chase, Galopin Des Champs (5/6) in recent years.

Many punters’ post mortems have begun with the commentator’s call “He only has to jump the last…” ringing in their ears.

If you want to nit-pick on the favourite, he may only have run five times on the track before the Champion Hurdle. Yes, we are clutching at straws.

There was much talk about the Mares’ Hurdle diluting the Champion Hurdle but if Honeysuckle goes there it’s because connections will be pretty sure she had no chance against the newcomer. Put yourself in connections’ shoes.

The claim might have had more purchase in the early days when Quevega went on her winning romp, but the two best mares to have run in it, Annie Power and Honeysuckle, also contested the Stayers’ and the Champion in Annie Power’s case, and Honeysuckle stepped up to two Champion Hurdles. Nothing wrong with that.

Of the remainder, State Man most improve on his Morgiana, while it now seems like we might see Vauban at Christmas.

Novice chasers

It might seem odd that a horse beaten 22 lengths in the Supreme is now the warmest order, nine months later, for the Arkle, but we know Constitution Hill was no ordinary Supreme winner and Jonbon has been faultless on his two chase outings, with a Grade 1 in the bag when some of his likely March rivals have still to jump a fence in public. His tendency to get a bit worked up before races seems to have subsided with racing also.

But in any other year, a list comprising El Fabiolo, Sir Gerhard, Appreciate It, Mighty Potter, Dysart Dynamo and Fil Dor would serve up some amount of anticipation. With the Mullins quartet still to appear in public, hopefully this weekend, the complexion of this race is likely to change.

The last 11 runnings have also seen four wins each for Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson with only Duc de Genevries (5/1) not a short-priced favourite. It also looks a race full of pace.

The dilution claim does have credence here with the Turners also an option for many and it would have been a better spectacle last season had Galopin Des Champs gone for the Brown Advisory. Classic Getaway looked good in Gowan over two and a half miles, as did Hollow Games over shorter but these two novices are best avoided until some clarity comes.

Novice hurdlers

Facile Vega dominates but, despite all the stable good vives, I’d be happy to leave him at odds-on. Grade 1 winner Marine Nationale goes straight to March, in need of decent ground. Gaelic Warrior is still unexposed and could to Ballymore.

The Albert Bartlett gets its begrudgers but it has a potentially strong cast, Grangeclare West, Hiddenvalley Lake, Sandor Clegane have claims, American Mike needs to shake off his ailments.

Champion Chase

Energumene’s comfortable win on his return in Cork at the weekend saw him odds-on to retain his Champion Chase in most books.

Opposition is thin on the ground with only Edwardstone emerging from last year’s novices and Shishkin looking bound for a step up in trip, Ferny Hollow is on the sidelines and Greanateen looks held. Last year’s Champion Chase didn’t take much winning though with Chacun Pour Soir and Shishkin not finishing. Edwardstone gets the job done and it’s dangerous to dismiss him.

Stayers

The Stayers’ Hurdle is the ‘could-be-anything’ race. Could Flooring Porter make it three in a row? He was the surprise packet in 2020, making all when underestimated at 12/1.

He needed a canny Danny Mullins ride to get home in front last season. He has only one style of running. Can he make all again? Will it be the usual suspects in opposition? Ahoy Senior or Epatante would be interesting in here. Teahupoo has his stamina to prove as does Bob Olinger along with his desire for a scrap. Then there’s last year’s Albert Bartlett winner. This is a race that could change complexion by March.

The frequent complaint is that the Ryanair Chase allows horses to duck and dive and avoid one another but there’s nothing easy about this Ryanair, it could be the race of the meeting with three or four top-class horses over their ideal distance. What’s not to engage with there?

If all is well with him, defending champion Allaho will surely defend his title with the owners having two other top-class staying chasers and throw in Shishkin, possibly Bravemansgame or Hitman and whither yet may go Galopin?

Triumph Hurdle

Both Mullins newcomers Lossiemouth and Blood Destiny impressed with their hurdling technique. The latter was beaten in France last April by Bo Zenith who has to appear yet for Gary Moore. And there are a few more expensive purchases yet to appear.

It’s very much a wait-and-watch race. Remember Pentland Hills in 2019 only made his jumping debut on February 25th and Burning Victory the following year on February 22nd. Vauban only appeared at Christmas last season.

Also would it be worth pondering Lossiemouth with all the allowances in either of the all-aged novices?

Gold Cup

The Gold Cup picture will surely clarify over Christmas. These horses are well exposed and run less often so what you see at Christmas may be what you get in March.

An explanation has come forth for A Plus Tard’s poor Haydock run. Rising nine, he should surely not have deteriorated enough not to make the frame again in the Gold Cup.

Stamina or lack of has been a factor in Paul Nicholls recent Gold Cup runners and while Bravemansgame and Hitman may fight out the King George, it’s hard to see either relishing the hill at Cheltenham. Protektorat stepped up again in the Betfair Chase and rising eight he could peak this season but his first run was his best last season and he has over 17 lengths to cut back from last year on A Plus Tard.

I’m a huge fan of L’Homme Press, but Ahoy Senior seems to have some issues.

That leaves Galopin Des Champ also to prove his stamina. Monday may reveal more.