WE know that the Betfair Hurdle is generally a race for young, lightly raced, progressive horses these days. The days of Squire Silk and Copeland are long gone, and Geos was an anomaly.

There have been 15 renewals of the Betfair Hurdle since Geos won the race as a nine-year-old in 2004 and, remarkably, all 15 have been won by a five-year-old or a six-year-old: eight by a five-year-old, seven by a six-year-old.

It doesn’t mean that Soaring Glory can’t follow up last year’s win now as a seven-year-old.

Jonjo O’Neill’s horse was impressive in winning the race last year, and he has improved this season, finishing just two and a half lengths behind Epatante in the Christmas Hurdle last time.

But he was a progressive six-year-old last season, he is a more exposed seven-year-old this season, and he is 14lb higher than he was 12 months ago.

The likelihood is that there is a less-exposed progressive horse in there who is better-handicapped than he is. This year’s Soaring Glory.

One better

Nor does it mean that Fifty Ball can’t go one place better this year than he did last year, when he finished three lengths behind Soaring Glory.

Last year’s renewal was a strong renewal, with Edwardstone, Annual Invictus, Buzz and Guard Your Dreams filling the next four places behind Fifty Ball.

Fifty Ball didn’t build on his promising chasing debut at Sandown in November in two subsequent runs over fences, but he remains potentially well handicapped over hurdles on a mark of 131, last year’s mark.

Consequently, he is 14lb better off with Soaring Glory for three lengths. If he could get back to last year’s form, he would obviously have a big chance, and Gary Moore has trained three of the last 14 Betfair Hurdle winners.

Broomfield Burg is shorter than both, but you can argue that he should be even shorter than he is. An impressive winner of his bumper at Southwell last May, Nicky Henderson’s horse has progressed nicely in four runs over hurdles.

After winning on his hurdling bow at Warwick last May at long odds-on, he was beaten on his return from his summer break at Newbury in early November, when he was just too keen and free early on behind a sedate pace.

He travelled like the most likely winner between the last two flights, but he tired on the run-in as his early exertions told.

Handicap debut

He stepped forward from that next time on his handicap debut at Cheltenham in December when, again, he travelled like the most likely winner on the run to the final flight, but he wasn’t as fast at the final flight as Lively Citizen was, and he just couldn’t get past.

Lively Citizen won again at Leicester last week off a 5lb higher mark, and is now rated 9lb higher than he was then.

Broomfield Burg looked very good in winning a novices’ hurdle at Kempton on St Stephen’s Day, and he is now just 4lb higher now than he was at Cheltenham.

Nicky Henderson removed his customary hood at Kempton last time, and, while he was keen enough, he wasn’t too keen just behind the leader early on. He hit the front at the second last flight and he quickened clear readily in the style of a talented individual.

It is probable that Nicky Henderson and J.P. McManus have had the Betfair Hurdle in mind for a little while.

It is a race in which the owner always has to be feared. My Tent Or Yours won the race in 2013 off a mark of 149, Ciel De Neige finished second in the race in 2020, Bleu Et Rouge finished second in 2018, Movewiththetimes finished second in 2017, Get Me Out Of Here won it in 2010 and finished second in 2012, when Darlan would surely have gone very close had he not come down at the second last flight.

It’s a strong record in such a valuable and historically competitive handicap.

Fellow novices Jpr One and Knappers Hill are dangers, and Jetoile could come into it if it develops into more of a test of stamina than speed, but Broomfield Burg is rock solid, he has a lot of the attributes that you look for in a potential Betfair Hurdle winner, he has the potential to go well beyond the handicap rating of 134 off which he races today, and best odds of 9/2 are more than fair.

Denman Chase

Best odds of 9/1 are more than fair too about Eldorado Allen in the Denman Chase earlier on the day.

Colin Tizzard’s horse is a talented performer over two and a half miles, but the step up to three miles today could unlock some untapped potential.

He was a two-miler in his younger days, his only win over hurdles was over two miles and his first two wins over fences were over the minimum trip, but he seemed to appreciate the slight step up in trip when he won the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter in November this season.

Stepped up to two and a half miles for the Peterborough Chase next time, he ran well in finishing second to First Flow, but he shaped as if he would appreciate a greater test of stamina.

Then last time in the Silviniaco Conti Chase at Kempton, he couldn’t match the talented Mister Fisher for pace from the second last fence.

It may be that he will be found wanting for stamina today, but it may be that he will get the trip all right, and he could even improve for the step up in distance.

He does have 17lb to find with Clan Des Obeaux and 11lb to find with Royal Pagaille on official ratings, but the form of the Paul Nicholls yard is in the dock these days, as has been well documented (he is one for 37 in the last two weeks), and Royal Pagaille may be vulnerable away from Haydock.

Four of his five best runs have been at Haydock, three of them on soft or heavy ground, and he has never run at Newbury.

All things into the mix, it may be worthwhile taking a chance on Eldorado Allen’s stamina at the price.

Recommended:

Broomfield Burg, 3.35 Newbury, 9/2 (Paddy Power, Sky Bet, William Hill, Betfair Sportsbook) 1 point each-way

Eldorado Allen, 2.25 Newbury, 9/1 (generally), 1 point win