Newbury Saturday

1:50 Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise (John Porter) Stakes (Group 3) 1m 4f

Thunderous failed to win last season, but was runner-up to Al Aasy over course and distance in the Aston Park Stakes before a good fourth in the Hardwicke, and he looks to hold outstanding claims here with the prospect of a soft lead in a race where he appears the sole pace angle.

The 2020 Dante winner might have been expected to progress last year, but his only moderate run came on his return, and he has been gelded since last seen.

He strikes me as the type to thrive for the unkindest cut, and while he shaped as if needing the run in the Gordon Richards Stakes last spring, I expect him to be much straighter this time around, and he should prove difficult to catch if getting loose in front.

2:25 Dubai Duty Free Stakes (Fred Darling Stakes) (Group 3) 7f

Jumbly is the pick on UK form having won the Radley Stakes over course and distance on her final juvenile start, but that race on heavy ground was strongly affected by the draw, with the first five home coming from the five highest stalls. While Roger and Harry Charlton’s well-bred filly may have a part to play here, I’m wary of her rating, and she does lack obvious physical scope.

The obvious alternative is Grade 1 Natalma Stakes winner Wild Beauty, but backing fillies proven over a mile as juveniles when cutting back in trip is a dubious policy, and I am going to take a chance on the hugely promising Heat Of The Moment, who overcame inexperience to win her only start last term, and has the scope to progress markedly as a three-year-old. Jane Chapple-Hyam trains the daughter of Bobby’s Kitten for Kirsten Rausing, and her horses showed enough at the Craven meeting to suggest this one will be ready to go.

The filly she beat on her debut was just touched off in a listed race on her next start, and that victory was gained despite a slow start and her jockey never going for his stick, as he merely held his inexperienced mount together.

To win as she did suggests she is smart, and that win came over a 6f trip which is too sharp for her in pedigree. She will stay beyond the 7f of this contest, too, but is worth backing each-way at current odds as she climbs the ranks.

3:00 Watership Down Stud Too Darn Hot Greenham Stakes (Group 3) 7f

Angel Bleu is a strong favourite for the Greenham, but looks one to oppose back in trip and on ground likely to be a fair bit quicker than the official.

Ralph Beckett’s colt thrived when switched to soft ground last term, winning a pair of Group 1 races in France, and staying a mile well when taking the Criterium International at Saint Cloud in October.

He was beaten in the Pat Eddery Stakes on quick ground just a few days before winning the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood, and it does appear that underfoot conditions are important to him.

Flaming Rib and Perfect Power are unproven beyond 6f, and the latter looked a natural 6f horse when winning the Middle Park last autumn, but Michael Owen’s Flaming Rib is likely to stay this trip being a son of top miler Ribchester out of an Excelebration mare.

While he doesn’t really appeal for the 2000 Guineas, he represents a first opportunity for new incumbent Hugo Palmer to make a splash for Owen on turf, and he’s sure to be ready for this test.

Flaming Rib beat four previous winners when taking the step up to listed class on his final start last year, and while the top pair have achieved more on the book, his form remains progressive in appearance.

He was going away again at the finish when a hugely impressive winner of a Chester nursery on his penultimate two-year-old start, carrying a big weight, and defying a mark of 101. On that evidence, he will stay seven furlongs, if not further, and he is likely to stretch these from the start.

3:35 Highclere Thoroughbred Racing 30th Anniversary Spring Cup Handicap 1m

He’s not much of a price, but Rogue Bear was by far the biggest eye-catcher in the Lincoln, and he looks absolutely thrown in off the same mark here, having been the only one to make an impact from a high draw at Doncaster.

He has half a length to find with Saleymm on that run, but is not only 1lb better off, but he is much better drawn here, with a middle stall ideal, and it would be a big surprise to me if he failed to turn the tables granted any sort of luck.

The selection was most progressive in the second half of last term, winning a pair of handicaps at Nottingham to finish his season, and he showed on his return that he is still on a sharp upward curve.

The next two in the betting were behind him on Town Moor, and Tom Clover’s charge has nothing to fear from Irish Admiral and Modern News, who he meets on the same terms.

These big-field handicaps often reward a thorough, methodical approach, taking all factors into consideration in the quest for value, but sometimes the answer is too obvious to ignore, and this is one of those occasions.

2:39 Betway Holyrood Handicap Stakes 5f 1y

Makanah looks the best option in the Holyrood Handicap, with Julie Camacho enjoying an excellent year, and the selection 2lb lower in the weights than when denied in a photo-finish over course and distance in the summer, looking unlucky not to win.

He won on his reappearance in 2019 and 2020, so we know he goes well fresh, and he had excuses last year when meeting trouble at Chester, where hold-up tactics were not particularly useful.

Fine Wine is well drawn to attack, and is fit from a good run at Pontefract early in the week, and Scot Dixon’s charge appeals as the main danger.

3:14 Betway Queen’s Cup 1m 5f 216y

Emmet Mullins has barely finished celebrating his Grand National win, but hopefully he’s not cracked open all the champagne, as he looks to have a great chance of another British win with Prix Royal-Oak fifth Zero Ten.

The nine-year-old is a late recruit to flat racing, but finishing just behind Search For A Song in that French equivalent of the St Leger shows that he is a smart performer in the making despite his advancing years.

He was better than the bare result, looking sure to be placed for most of the race, but giving the impression his stamina was stretched in the heavy ground over 1m 7f.

Mullins has been quick out of the blocks in gaining the services of brilliant if controversial 7lb claimer Benoit La Sayette, and that means he is conceding no more than a stone to any of his rivals, and he cand make his class tell over a track and trip which should suit him ideally.

Thunderous 1:50 Newbury – 1pt win @ 7/2 (general)

Heat Of The Moment 2:25 Newbury – 1pt win @ 16/1 (general)

Flaming Rib 3:00 Newbury – 1pt win @ 10/1 (Bet365, Hills)

Rogue Bear 3:35 Newbury – 3pts win @ 7/2 (general)

Zero Ten 3:14 Newbury – 2pts win @ 4/1 (Bet365, 7/2 general)