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Earlier this season Proform and professional gambler Andy Gibson launched the Cheltenham Trail, a series of weekly dossiers aimed at keeping subscribers well informed throughout the key period of the National Hunt season.
Here is an extract from the latest Cheltenham Trail update:
KILLULTAGH VIC
17th January 2016 – Leopardstown
He led all the way and jumped really well until slithering on landing at the final fence and appearing to lose all chance in the process.
It was a great piece of horsemanship from Ruby Walsh in getting him back up despite losing an iron in the last flight incident. Partially as a result of this success he is now trading as low as 3/1 favourite for the JLT Chase on the third day of the festival.
This does appear to be a particularly short price for a horse that is far from clear of his field. I uppose that in part it could be a natural overreaction to the unusual and memorable style of his victory here. We must not get too carried away with this as without his last fence error he would not have been that much more impressive than Zabana who had beaten this runner up previously.
Moreover, Zabana’s success came whilst making his chasing debut so he could be said to be open to more improvement.
Of the first nine in the betting for the JLT there are four horses that appear very likely to run in either the Arkle or RSA; moreover, L’Ami Serge and Sizing John could be said to be 50/50 between the JLT and the Arkle. This leaves Shaneshill and Bristol De Mai as the only horses from the first nine in the market that look fairly certain to oppose Killultagh Vic in the JLT Chase. This may help to see his current price of 3/1 in a different light; conversely, the problem here is that, if we can easily see how this race might fall apart before March then so can everyone else.
The connections of L’Ami Serge, for example, will have very fond memories of how their horse easily brushed Killultagh Vic aside at Ascot in December 2014. It is not difficult to envisage them weighing up their prospects of beating Douvan in the Arkle compared to their chances in the JLT and coming to the decision that the longer race might be much the easier option, even though he still has his stamina to prove for the JLT distance. Bristol De Mai is, of course, owned by the same people as L’Ami Serge and so we will probably know more after the Twiston-Davies horse has run in the next few days.
L’AMI SERGE
16th January 2016 – Wetherby
There is every reason to believe that he will prove to be at least as good over fences as he was over the smaller obstacles. The dilemma with him is probably more to do with whether or not his connections see him as an Arkle or JLT contender. He might stay the longer distance in March but I would not use this comfortable success over lesser opposition as proof of that in itself. I suspect
that if he does go down the JLT route it will be mostly to do with wanting to avoid Douvan and partially to do with how Bristol De Mai gets on next weekend (same ownership).
Wherever he ends up he should prove to be one of the best of this season’s novice chasers over two miles and possibly over two and a half providing his stamina will stretch that far. With regards to his performance here he jumped well and occasionally spectacularly aside from running down the second last flight. He moved markedly to his left at that fence and had also jumped in that direction at a few of his obstacles on his chasing debut. This might not be relevant for March but could be worth remembering should he head for Punchestown later on in the spring.
If he can prove his stamina for two and a half miles prior to the festival he would surely hold as good a chance as any in the JLT Chase.
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