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This year’s Derby is a race punters might deserve to be paid at double the odds should they land on the winner, such is the degree of difficulty in picking apart the field. The trials have provided more murk than clarity and there is significant Irish interest in the Epsom classic, some of it from a usual source, some not so much.
Aidan O’Brien has eight of the 21 entries at this point though the trainer has left the strong impression, again and again, that Auguste Rodin is his number one and there isn’t a number two. Judged on his 22-length defeat in the 2,000 Guineas, it is hard to make sense of his position near the head of the market but that is hardly the only piece of evidence on offer; he was a Group 1 winner at two and, perhaps more importantly, he is trained by Aidan O’Brien.
Playing the man seems central to understanding his chance here and there is a whiff of the Facile Vega in the Supreme off Auguste Rodin: a flat out disappointment in his prep with the market suggesting he can come back to form. Perhaps resurrection is an easier trick with a national hunt horse than a stallion prospect, we shall soon see.
Sprewell, a second stage Derby entry back in April, looks the clear pick of the Irish on this year’s form. It was hard to rate his win at Naas in March given the pace was so slow, but his Leopardstown Derby Trial win was impressive in most, but not all, aspects.
He dismissed the Ballysax form of Up And Under in second along with the Group 1 juvenile form of a well-backed Proud And Regal in third, the manner in which he came back on the bridle after being briefly niggled along on the turn-in was taking, though his overall and sectional times were underwhelming. On the positive side, his temperament looks solid which is a lot more than could be said for the former NBA player he may be named after!
Sprewell didn’t have to face the Ballysax winner last time, something that may have been down to Shane Foley coaxing connections of White Birch to avoid Leopardstown second time around and go for York where he could keep the ride. The jockey nearly got paid twice as John Murphy’s star was beaten a neck, picking up slightly more prize money than he would have for winning at Leopardstown.
That Dante is some race to try and unpick and is all about what you value or think the market doesn’t rate. The Foxes is the hardened one from the race, but White Birch was quicker than him in each of the last four furlongs per Course Track.
Joint-third Passenger clearly met the world of trouble and deserved to finish closer, perhaps even win, though he is not entered at Epsom and his trainer likes to build his horses gradually up to Group 1s. The other joint-third, Continuous, should not be slept on either.
Aidan O’Brien commented at Naas last Sunday that he was a long way off peak fitness for this run, his first in 230 days, and after travelling well, he did not get a hard time from Ryan Moore. O’Brien made similar comments about Japan after the 2019 running of the Dante and that one found dramatic improvement to be beaten half a length in the Derby and it would be no surprise to see Continuous take a leap forward next time.
That leap is unlikely to happen at Epsom, however, because he is not currently entered. O’Brien also said last Sunday that he might prefer a flat track so Royal Ascot, the Curragh or ParisLongchamp may prove suitable. Attitude, sectionals and trouble in running all matter, but I wonder if old-fashioned trainer skill might prove the key to understanding this race.
THERE was a brief moment before last weekend when the Ballydoyle stable form came under question but events at Newbury and Naas quickly dispelled any concerns, the brief lack of winners little more than small sample variance.
One stable where we do have a decent sample so far in 2023 is Ger Lyons and it is hard to discern anything other than a yard going through a lull.
And it’s a surprising lull because the trainer tends not only to be good early in the year but consistent to the point of being metronomic through recent seasons.
The table in pink shows Lyons’ runners in the official turf season from March through to May since 2018 with statistics correct up to the Roscommon meeting last Monday.
Winners and placed horses have clearly dropped off but so too have runners which may be indicative of an awareness that all is not as it has been in the past.
There was a stakes double at Leopardstown earlier in the month but that proved a false dawn and one alarming disappointment was the well-fancied juvenile General Assembly at Navan the weekend before last.
Subject of a confident report in an early season Thoroughbred Daily News stable tour, he was very strong in the market from prices first being issued but ran poorly. Allowing his draw was not ideal and he was found to be blowing hard post-race, he seemed lost when asked for an effort which is unusual for the yard.
It will not always be like this, and Guineas weekend has often been good for the yard (three winners last year, for instance) but this doesn’t appeal as a situation where punters might want to buy low and get with some of their runners.
Perhaps the best course of action is to wait for an upturn in form while forgiving the bad runs at this time and upgrading the good ones when that upturn comes.
IRISH winners at the York May meeting are rare, just nine of them since 2004, but five of them had either won at Group 1 level previously or went on to do so, Septimus, Lush Lashes, Cape Blanco, Maarek and Snowfall the names in question.
Of all the early season trial meetings in England, York might be the most competitive, ahead of the likes of Chester, the galloping track having a real draw to connections looking to start their campaigns off well, and Irish horses able to win on their travels at an early stage of the season are worth noting.
Sounds Of Heaven is the sole qualifier this year and she put up a performance of note in the old Michael Seely, impressing with how she travelled before knuckling down well to win by a short-head on her first start since October.
A tendency to move strongly and not do much in front was also evident in her backend maiden win at Leopardstown while it was also a positive that she coped with much faster ground than she had run on previously.
Her preparation for this race was not smooth, her trainer noting that she had a small setback earlier in the year, and the form looks solid, beating five last time out winners, all of them from top English yards, most of whom had had a run this season.
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