THE idea that a horse has won because it got what is commonly called an easy lead is a familiar refrain. It is often seen as a warning sign about the form of a race and the true merits of a horse’s ability.

It begs the question, when is a lead an easy one? If every horse were blessed with the same amount of ability, an easy lead is simply dictating the pace of a race, dawdling along in much slower than par sectionals and thereby saving energy for a strong finish.