WAS there a future champion on Dubai Future Champions Day last weekend?
In 2024 Desert Flower won the Bet 365 Fillies Mile at this meeting before going on to land the Qipco 1000 Guineas on her next start and Delacroix won the Emirates Autumn Stakes before going on to Group 1 glory as a three-year-old. Just because two champions emerged last season does not automatically mean that one will emerge from this year’s meeting.
To presume so belongs in the same category as believing that a good horse will emerge from a random novice stakes just because that race has worked out well in the past. This is where data can step in and be used predictively to identify exceptional performances that predicate something better to come.
In a strongly run fillies’ mile last year Desert Flower produced outstanding data showing an ability to quicken four furlongs from home and then was the only horse in the race to run under 12.00s in the penultimate furlong and under 13.00s in the final furlong, allowing her to pull five and a half lengths clear of a good field and allowing us to be confident that we had seen a very good horse.
In a slowly run Autumn Stakes, Delacroix showed that he had a sharp turn of foot producing three closing splits that were faster than par, a turn of foot that has been the hallmark of his Group 1 wins in 2025. This year the data provides some fascinating insight from the meeting which will be well worth bearing in mind when it comes to the classics next season.
Bet365 Fillies’ Mile (Group 1)
Christophe Soumillon was effusive in his praise of Precise after she won the Bet 365 Fillies Mile on the Friday. She was a comfortable three-and-a-quarter-length winner and as a result is the 4/1 favourite for the 1000 Guineas. She displayed plenty of stamina to win what was a strongly-run race and in so doing revealed another string to her bow after having won the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes where she quickened well in a steadily run race. This is aptly displayed by comparing her Finishing Speed percentages for both races.
Moyglare Stud stakes: FSP: 107.97 (3.56% above Par)
Bet365 Fillies’ Mile: FSP: 96.45% (2.67% below Par)
This ability to handle races run at different tempos highlights her versatility and she had to be tough at Newmarket because there was no hiding place. Precise raced in 10th place and produced her fastest furlong of 11.12s in the second furlong, as did all the other runners which is indicative of just how strongly run this race was.
She raced evenly after that second furlong staying on too strongly for her rivals who could not cope with the strong gallop as well as her. Her final two furlongs of 24.74s was 0.74s faster than Venetian Lace in second place which is equivalent to four lengths under the prevailing conditions and although her final furlong of 13.15s is rated as slow when compared to Race IQ Par all of her rivals produce a final split rated as very slow.
The way this race panned out made Precise look like a stayer, but we know from her win in the Moyglare that she has plenty of speed for a fast finish when the pace of the race demands. What this performance does highlight is that she will stay further than a mile with 10 furlongs likely to suit, but for now we must treat her as being the rightful favourite for the 1000 Guineas.
CONDITIONS at the Newmarket meeting were fast. The going on Friday was described as good (good to firm in places), but conditions were faster than described with the Race IQ meeting average of 7.9 indicative of good to firm conditions. No rain and no watering overnight meant conditions remained good to firm on Saturday, a lower average Time Index of 5.9 affected by races that were run at steadier tempos than on Friday.
Pierre Bonnard came into this on the back of a maiden success at Dundalk and he took a leap forward here with a display that will see him contest a Derby trial early next season. This race may have been over a straight 10 furlongs, designed to test stamina, but given that pace makes the race, this contest was more of a test of speed than stamina.
The early pace was very steady with five of the first six furlongs being run slower than the Race IQ Par and this led to a final three-furlong sprint, with all the runners recording a Finishing Speed Percentage faster than the Par of 101.51%. When the sprint began Pierre Bonnard was not ideally placed in sixth place, but he produced a fine turn of foot to record a final three furlongs of 34.65s (FSP: 107.89%) which was at least 0.31s faster than any of his rivals.
Each one of his final three furlongs of 11.20s 11.23s and 12.22s are rated as being very fast when compared to the Race IQ Par and what makes this display of speed so impressive is that he caught and went past horses in front of him who were also finishing strongly. In being faster than all his rivals through each of the final three furlongs he displayed his dominance over this field, and this augurs well for when he steps up in trip next season.
He is by the dual Derby winner Camelot out of a mare called Sultanina who won the Group 1 Nassau Stakes in 2014, and she is by the Derby winner New Approach. The stamina in this pedigree should mean that he will have no problem staying a mile and a half. Align that with the speed he showed at Newmarket, you have a bona fide Derby contender for which he is currently 16/1, which makes plenty of appeal.
Darley Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1)
MAKE no mistake this was top class performance from Gewan and he should not be underestimated for next year’s 2000 Guineas. The problem with the race is that there are excuses for some of those who finished behind him, and not much in the data to differentiate between the first four home.
Aside from the data, any analysis of the race would note how keen Gstaad (second) was early in the race, how Distant Storm (third) raced well off the pace having been easily the slowest out of the stalls, and how poorly Zavateri (fourth) handled the dip.
None of that is the fault of Gewan who always prominent racing in third place and quickened well of what was an even gallop seeing out the trip strongly. That said there is very little difference in the data produced by the first four home and as such under different circumstances should they all meet again there may be a different result. The first four all produced a fast penultimate furlong when compared to the Race IQ Par and their finishing efforts were very similar as detailed below. Their ultimate finishing positions perhaps dictated by where they started those finishing efforts from.
1st Gewan: Final 2F: 23.32s FSP: 102.18%
2nd Gstaad: Final 2F: 23.30s FSP: 102.73%
3rd Distant Storm: Final 2F: 23.42s FSP: 102.16%
4th Zavateri: Final 2F: 23.54s: FSP: 101.78%
There may well be a champion among them, but the evidence of this race makes that Champion impossible to identify.