CHRISTOPHE Soumillon can be accused of going too soon in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, but that was in 2012 not 2025. In October 2012, Orfevre surged to the lead in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe under Soumillon. He breezed past the eventual winner Solemia pulling two lengths clear before hanging to his right and idling in front allowing Solemia to get back past him and deny the Japanese a much-coveted victory.
The post-race analysis focussed on the rather ungainly waywardness displayed by Orfevre which allowed Solemia to get back up in the closing stages, but a more fundamental question should have been asked and that was ‘did Christophe Soumillon go too soon?’ meaning Orfevre was in front too early giving him time to hang and idle.
The answer to that question must be yes, but it was never part of the narrative in 2012. Now in 2025, that question is part of the post-race debate following this year’s race, but the circumstances and the answer are different. This time around, rather than chasing a horse down, he was the one being chased after being the first to strike for home and it has been suggested that he may have made his move too early leaving Minnie Hauk vulnerable in the closing stages.
It is a testament to the improved quality of race analysis that this question is being asked, but it is my contention that Soumillon has no case to answer on this occasion. This opinion is backed up by data that is provided by France Galop, which highlights the superior speed of Daryz and the modest mid-race tempo as being more laudable reasons for the defeat of Minnie Hauk.
Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Group 1)
The going at Longchamp last Sunday was described as very soft, but that description was not backed up by the official times, which suggested that it was quicker and a description of good to soft would have been more apt. A low draw and a ground-saving inside trip played a significant part in the result with the first four home coming from stalls 2, 1, 3 and 5.
In terms of sectional analysis, the pace of the race can be described courtesy of France Galop and their sectionals show the tempo of the race to have been of a fast, slow, fast nature.
The early pace was strong with both Daryz and Minnie Hauk recording sub-12.00s furlongs through the second and third furlongs, as they settled in ninth and fifth places respectively. Daryz recorded an 11.61s second furlong and an 11.81s third furlong before settling into a rhythm that saw him run significantly slower through the next six furlongs averaging 12.60s per furlong, saving energy for a relatively fast finish.
The pace picked up four furlongs from home with Minnie Hauk quickening to the front three furlongs from home recording an 11.90s furlong. Daryz tracked her run moving into second place with the same split of 11.90s.
The penultimate furlong saw Minnie Hauk continue to accelerate with a faster furlong of 11.62s showing that the move she made three from home was not taking its toll, quite the opposite she was getting faster. The problem for Soumillon was that Daryz had more speed than her as he flashed through the penultimate furlong 6/100ths of a second faster than her (11.56s). The final furlong saw them both slow down, with Daryz maintaining his pace slightly better with a 12.04s split, whilst Minnie Hauk ran 12.22s.
These numbers do not identify Minnie Hauk as a tired horse who used her pace too soon in the race, rather that Daryz was able to sprint marginally faster than her. If you accumulate their final three furlong times, you do not get a picture of one horse seeing the race out strongly whilst the other weakens. The figures below suggest that Daryz was just 1.15 lengths faster than Minnie Hauk through the final three furlongs.
Final three furlongs:
1st Daryz: 35.52s
2nd Minnie Hauk: 35.75s
Further evidence that Minnie Hauk was not the victim of a premature move in the race is provided by the fact that her final three furlongs were comfortably faster than any other horse in the race allowing her to pull three lengths clear of Sosie and her final furlong was only bettered by the winner.
There is only a marginal difference in the data between the performances of the first two and the test of final three-furlong speed suited Daryz better than Minnie Hauk, who is a thorough stayer at the trip and could have done with a stronger gallop that would have turned the race into a stronger test of stamina.
Of the vanquished, it was a tale of wide trips from poor draws. Kalpana from stall 10 was forced very wide throughout the race covering 4.09 metres more than the winner but she was able to run the fastest split (11.75s) from three furlongs out to two out allowing us to upgrade her performance. Aventure also deserves an upgrade. She was keen when the pace steadied after a couple of furlongs and then was forced very wide running 6.24 metres further than the winner. Her previous form tells us that she is better than a 10th place finish here, but her draw gave her little chance.
Qatar Prix Marcel Boussac Criterium des Pouliches (Group 1)
WITH the success of Diamond Necklace in the Prix Marcel Boussac, Aidan O’Brien chalked up his sixth success in the race and his filly remains unbeaten in three starts this year. She coped well with the step up in trip to a mile, even if the race was not a stern test of stamina at the trip.
The early pace set by Venosa, who was employed as a pacemaker, was modest. She took the field along at a tempo that turned this race into a three-furlong dash with Diamond Necklace quickening sharply to get to the lead from fifth place. Her sectionals are displayed below, and they show exactly where the pace increased. I have included her speed for every furlong bar the first expressed in kilometres per hour.
Diamond Necklace sectional analysis:
F1: 16.18s
F2: 12.98s / 55.8 kmh
F3: 12.90s / 56.0 kmh
F4: 12.93s / 59.8 kmh
F5: 12.49s / 57.8 kmh
F6: 11.51s / 63.5kmh
F7: 10.88s / 65.7 kmh
F8: 11.41s / 63.1 kmh
These figures show exactly where the sprint began and her final three furlongs of 33.81s, whilst only being subjected to a hands and heels ride, were very impressive. She will be targeted at the 1000 Guineas, for which she is the 8/1 favourite. In behind Diamond Necklace, Narissa caught the eye having been held up in what was a slowly-run race and she is my eye-catcher of the week.
Narissa raced in last place until the final two furlongs, whence her finish from the rear of the field in a race which was not run to suit such tactics was impressive. Her penultimate furlong of 10.79s was the fastest in the race and her final three furlongs of 33.72s was 7/100ths of a second faster than the winner. She still looked green whilst finishing quickly and looks sure to improve as a three-year-old perhaps over further given that her dam stayed 10 furlongs. She is in the more than capable hands of Francis-Henri Graffard and must be followed.