Ascot Saturday
1.15 BetMGM British EBF
October Stakes (Listed)
(Fillies & Mares) 7f
Feature of the day on Saturday could be wind, with strong gusts forecast around the country and Ascot’s wind will be from the west and into the faces of the runners in the straight, putting the emphasis on stamina and against those who race without cover.
Cajole was a creditable fourth to Lady Of Spain in the Atalanta Stakes at Sandown last time and a repeat of the effort down in grade may be enough to win, while the high draws should have the best of it given the stalls positioning on the stands rail, so she looks well-berthed in 13. Her stamina for a mile could be crucial in what will likely be a demanding gallop and she’s preferred to Bright Thunder.
1.50 BetMGM Rous Stakes (Listed) 5f
Woolhampton was well held at Haydock last week, but a slick five furlongs is not her thing at all and she is better judged on battling wins at Sandown and over course and distance on her last two starts. This is tougher, but not many in the field will relish a slog into the wind, whereas she can get cover early in behind before picking off rivals in the final furlong. She ought to be going on best of all, and it’s just a case of whether she can keep the leaders in her sights. That’s not a given, but it’s easy to forgive her latest effort and she will offer win and place value at the advertised odds.
Shagraan goes well at a galloping track and with ease underfoot, and looks the likeliest winner all things considered. He’s worth a saver or utilised in exotics.
2.25 BetMGM Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3) 1m 3f 211y
Hamish has had his sights lowered slightly this term, winning listed races at Goodwood and Chester and as a result, he can meet Al Qareem on favourable terms. The latter has won this race twice (Hamish won in 2022), and is as likeable a galloper as you will find, but will struggle to shake off the selection who is fancied to get his nose in front where it matters.
3.00 John Guest Racing
Bengough Stakes (Group 3) 6f
Quinault is better than ever this season and has been able to stretch out successfully to seven furlongs this season, so the soft ground here is less of a concern that it would have been in the past. I’ll be cheering him home, but trying to dominate while running into a headwind isn’t the ideal scenario, and it’s a struggle to justify him as a betting medium.
3.35 BetMGM Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) 7f
Tarkhan is a hopeful selection in the Challenge Cup now there is some juice in the ground. He’s run well on his last four starts on good or softer, notably when a short-head second of 11 to Christian David at Newbury last time, and the more rain that falls, the greater his chance becomes. His lifetime record on soft or heavy reads 3413132 and I’ll be increasing my stake with every millimetre of rain that falls.
Newmarket Saturday
1.30 British EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap 1m 2f
There is likely to be quite a strong west wind behind the runners at Newmarket and that will help those on the pace, so expect front runners to excel on the day. The going will also ease from the official “good” on Friday, and that will be a benefit to Princess Rascal here. Oliver Cole’s filly flopped on her Polytrack debut at Kempton last time but should bounce back retuned to turf, and her previous second at Windsor on softish ground reads well, with the first three home in that contest all successful on recent starts.
Morrophore, North Star and Wonder Star have arguably stronger claims on what they’ve shown on quick turf, but all three have been below form faced with softer conditions in the past. North Star may have been undone by a longer trip at Yarmouth last time, rather than the ground, and she is the likeliest leader on paper, so is nominated as the danger.
2.05 £150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes 7f
Half Sovereign may be a short price, but the rain has come for her and she looks the pick of the weights as she attempts a five-timer. She has looked notably honest and straightforward in gaining her four wins since July and while there is always the danger of being drawn on the wrong side in such a race, she also appears to have the best draw based on predictions of overall pace, and I’d have her only a shade of odds-against, so can’t go against her at bigger odds.
2.40 BetMGM Sun Chariot Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) 1m
Fallen Angel has all the right attributes to take a slightly substandard Sun Chariot, with an affinity for soft ground allied to a positive run style, and - most importantly - a tremendous attitude in a tight finish sure to stand her in good stead.
Market rival Cinderella’s Dream won a novice at Thirsk on yielding ground but has looked better the quicker the surface in recent seasons and bigger threats may come from the pair who dominated the Atalanta Stakes at Sandown last time, with Blue Bolt just preferred to turn the tables with Lady Of Spain and give Fallen Angel most to do. The exotics with the selection over that pair in exactas/trifectas makes plenty of appeal for those so inclined.
Redcar Saturday
3.20 William Hill Two Year Old Trophy (Listed) 5f 217y
There should be quite a strong breeze at Redcar, too, but it’s liable to half-against the runners in the straight, and that makes it harder to predict results, other than to say that stamina will be tested more than normal, and I’d want a seven-furlong horse for the big race.
Song Of The Clyde won over half a furlong further in the Weatherby’s Scientific Sales race at Doncaster last time and gets extra credit here for doing so by making all into a headwind, so he’s proven he has the credentials for the contest and looks the safest bet on known evidence, for all softening of the ground would be a slight concern.
Ardisia won on soft ground at Ayr and won’t mind the rain, but won’t get much cover in stall 15, which is a bigger concern.
Recommended
Cajole 1.15 Ascot - 1pt win @ 11/2 (SkyBet, Paddy Power - 5/1 general)
Woolhampton 1.50 Ascot - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (general - 4 places)
Hamish 2.25 Ascot - 1pt win @ 2/1 (Hills)
Tarkhan 3.35 Ascot - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (general - 5 places)
Princess Rascal 1.30 Newmarket - 1pt e/w @ 15/2 (SkyBet, Paddy Power - 7/1 general)
Half Sovereign 2.05 Newmarket - 2pts win @ 15/8 (general)
Fallen Angel 2.40 Newmarket - 2pts win @ 9/4 (general)