ParisLongchamp Sunday

2.48 Prix du Moulin de Longchamp (Group 1) (3yo+) 1m

The European Group 1 calendar is pretty congested, especially at this time of year, so the odd sub-standard race is inevitable.

Yet the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp attracted a stellar field of multiple top-level scorers 12 months ago and up until the last minute it looked like more of the same on the Bois de Boulogne tomorrow.

Then came the surprise news that Poetic Flare was to miss the race, as was the Poule d’Essai des Pouliches winner, Coeursamba, taking the field down to six runners, including the Aidan O’Brien-trained pair of Order Of Australia and Lope Y Fernandez.

Though these absences do dilute the quality of the contest, the unexpected declaration of the front-running runaway German 1,000 Guineas heroine, Novemba, who was believed to be en route to a Group 2 at Baden-Baden on Sunday instead, at least provides clarity in terms of the likelihood of a strong pace.

Even with Poetic Flare an intended runner, all the talk in the build-up had surrounded the entry with the least experience and the lowest career bankroll, namely the William Haggas-trained Sea The Stars colt, Baaeed.

Unbeaten in just four lifetime starts, he has been a wide-margin stakes winner of the last two, most recently putting six and a half lengths between himself and his nearest pursuer in a Group 3 at Glorious Goodwood.

Nobody knows just how good Baaeed is and the fact that all of his races have been over a mile, yet his full-brother, Hukum, has won five big races at a mile and a half and beyond, only muddies the waters further.

What is incontrovertible is that this is by far his toughest task to date and, given that he is sure to be odds-on in the betting market, it seems sensible to try to find something to lower his colours.

The Ballydoyle pair make limited appeal. Order Of Australia did come back to something approaching his best when third in the Prix Jacques Le Marois but that was partly down to a canny waiting-in-front ride from Ryan Moore which is unlikely to be possible again here given Novemba’s participation.

Apart from a good run behind a rather below-par Palace Pier in the Queen Anne Stakes, Lope Y Fernandez has posted three modest efforts in his other Group 1 starts this term and needs a sudden transformation to make much impact.

A more potent threat to Baaeed should come from the second British raider, the Falmouth Stakes heroine, Snow Lantern.

She was given plenty to do and then found trouble in running when third in the Sussex Stakes on her latest outing and it has to be encouraging that her trainer, Richard Hannon, has found her in such good form at home that he has been forced to give her another race rather than wait for her original target, next month’s Sun Chariot Stakes.

And don’t be surprised if Novemba outperforms her position as the rank outsider of the field. A mile round a bend seems to bring out the best in her and, if her talented Kazakh-born jockey, Bauyrzhan Murzabayev, gets the fractions right, she could hold on to the lead for longer than people are expecting.

The solitary French-trained runner is last year’s Poule d’Essai des Poulains winner, Victor Ludorum. He has prevailed only once in seven starts since that classic triumph and is well-held by Order Of Australia on the Marois form.

SELECTION: SNOW LANTERN

Next Best: Baaeed

Rest of the card

The Longchamp card also features four €80,000 Group 3 races with some really interesting runners.

Probably the most intriguing comes right at the start, at 12.23pm Irish time, as the seven furlong Prix La Rochette for two-year-olds features Charlie Appleby’s highly promising Lope De Vega colt New Science, not to mention two unbeaten locals in Making Moovies and Zelda.

Another fascinating cross-Channel challenger is the former leading Derby candidate John Leeper, who returns from a summer break to meet the Prix du Jockey Club fourth, Saiydabad, in the Prix du Prince d’Orange (1m 2f).

Also over 1m2f, Jean Claude-Rouget’s Siyouni gelding Wally, can overcome a 4lb penalty to notch his fourth pattern success of the season in La Coupe de Maisons-Laffitte, while the fast-ground-loving Czech visitor, Nagano Gold, can get the better of his fellow veteran Call The Wind, who is returning from a six-and-a-half-month absence, in the Prix Gladiateur (1m 7f 110y).