ANOTHER Cambridgeshire, another John (& Thady) Gosden-trained unexposed three-year-old at the top of the market.

Gavriel could be in the mould of Halling, who won the Cambridgeshire as a three-year-old in 1994, then went on to win two Eclipses and two Juddmonte Internationals and one Prix d’Ispahan.

Or in the mould of Pipedreamer, who won the Cambridgeshire as a three-year-old in 2007 and won the Group 2 Sky Bet York Stakes the following year and the Group 2 Prix Dollar the following year.

Or Lord North, who won the Cambridgeshire in 2019 and who won the Prince of Wales’s Stakes the year after that, and the Dubai Turf the year after that and the year after that and the year after that.

The trainer’s/trainers’ record is obviously a key contributor to Gavriel’s odds today, to his strength in the market.

That, and the fact that he was game in winning a 10-furlong handicap at Ascot three weeks ago, and that the runner-up from that race Balzac came out and won off a 2lb higher mark at Newbury last Saturday and is now 5lb higher than he was then, and that Gavriel is 2lb well-in today even under his 4lb penalty, and the fact that he has raced just four times in his life.

But the Frankel colt may not be another Halling or another Lord North or even another Pipedreamer. He could be a Fifth Column or a Roi De France or a Saga or an Uncle Bryn, and we won’t know in which mould he is until it’s too late.

It’s no consolation that, if he does win the Eclipse next July, then we’ll know that he was over-priced for the Cambridgeshire, racing off a mark of 99. As things stand, he is short enough.

Solid case

The case for Erzindjan is solid. Terry Kent’s horse ran a big race in last year’s Cambridgeshire to finish fourth behind Boiling Point. He was unlucky too last year, in that he was drawn high, on the near side, in stall 23, because the race developed on the far side.

He had nothing to race with through the latter stages of the race last year, Ray Dawson waited as long as he could before asking his horse for his effort and, when he did as him, the Lope De Vega gelding finished off his race strongly to take fourth place, getting to within a length and a half of the winner.

Five of the first six home raced on the far side from a low draw, Erzindjan was the only horse who got into the race from a high draw, and he finished four and a half lengths clear of the next best horse who raced on the near side.

It was a big performance, and it is not stretching it to say that he might have won if he had been drawn lower.

Erzindjan proved his wellbeing when he won a good handicap on his debut this season at the Guineas meeting in early May, over today’s course and distance, off a mark of 99. He ran well in the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot next time, and you can easily forgive him his run at York last time.

For starters, he has never been at his best on the Knavesmire. His record there now reads 4750. Also, it was over 10 and a half furlongs, and it was his first run back after a short break, his first run since Royal Ascot.

As well as that, it is probable that connections have had the Cambridgeshire as his target for a while, probably for five months at least, possibly for 12 months. It is probable that that run at York will bring him forward nicely for today.

He is eight, and no eight-year-old has won the Cambridgeshire since Baronet won it in 1980. But he was obviously seven last year when he might have won the race with a little bit more luck, and no seven-year-old has won it since Rambo’s Hall won it in 1992. And Billy Loughnane is obviously a big asset.

Cheveley Park Stakes

The Tattersalls Sceptre Sessions Cheveley Park Stakes is shaping up to be a cracker, with Sun Goddess, Senorita Bonita and Libertango standing their ground. It’s going to be fascinating to see how the race develops but, from a betting perspective, Libertango probably shouldn’t be as far behind her two big rivals in the market as she is.

George Boughey’s filly has three-parts of a length to make up with Senorita Bonita on their running in the Duchess of Cambridge Stakes on Newmarket’s July Course at the July meeting, so how is she going to make up that three-parts of a length? There is a case to be made.

She was held up that day behind a moderate pace. She was keener than ideal through the early stages of the race, and she made her ground quickly on the far side to hit the front just outside the furlong marker, before giving best to the Crisfords’ filly inside the final furlong. Senorita Bonita has since gone on and won the Prix Morny at Deauville, but Libertango has since won the Lowther Stakes.

She was dropped in that day from her high draw by Billy Loughnane and, switched in behind runners towards the far side, she was delivered with a well-timed run to get up and beat Star Of State, Joseph O’Brien’s highly-talented filly who had won her maiden by nine lengths on her previous run, and who ran out an impressive winner of the Tattersalls Ireland Sales race at the Irish Champions’ Festival on her subsequent run.

The third filly, Jolivette, was only just beaten by Nabati in the Mill Reef Stakes last Saturday. Libertango is probably going to have to progress again from that if she is going to prevail today, but there is every chance that she will and, actually, whichever filly wins this race, she will probably have to put up a career-best performance in order to do so.

Recommended

Libertango 2.27 Newmarket 1 pt win @ 9/2 (generally)

Erzindjan 3.40 Newmarket 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (generally)