THE Betfred 2000 Guineas is a perennial puzzle that is rarely easy to solve, but at least we have arrived at the correct favourite in Gstaad. Charlie Appleby has won the last two renewals, and three of the last four, and you have to respect Distant Storm and King’s Trail. Distant Storm has been popular of late, and he won the Somervile Tattersall Stakes last year at Newmarket, but he still has that length and a half to find with Gstaad on their running in the Dewhurst.

The other Charlie Appleby runner, King’s Trail, is two for two, both his wins coming at Kempton, and he was impressive five weeks ago in winning the conditions stakes there that Charlie Appleby won in 2024 with Notable Speech, before that colt went on and won the Guineas.

Alparslan made all to win the Greenham Stakes and could step forward again, while Oxagon ran out a good winner of the Craven. It may be that Avicenna will reverse places with him from the Craven though, Roger Varian’s colt stuck to his task, coming from the rear of the field and having to switch in a race where the prominent racers were advantaged. That said, he may not be fast enough to win a classic over a mile. You can see him staying on to threaten for the places.

Bow Echo is three for three, and he stayed on well to win the Royal Lodge Stakes over today’s course and distance in September. George Boughey’s horse is a likeable individual, but is short now, he has shortened up without running, and, athough his dam won over six furlongs, his pedigree has a middle-distance hue to it, and it may be that he will be seen to better effect when he goes beyond a mile.

Thesecretadversary showed a nice turn of foot and stayed on well to win the Ballylinch Stud Guineas Trial at Leopardstown three weeks ago. Fozzy Stack’s colt should come forward from that, his seasonal return. Power Blue was conceding 3lb to Thesecretadversary that day, and finished a good second but, last year’s Group 1 Phoenix Stakes winner, Robson De Aguiar’s horse has bags of speed and it may be that this mile will stretch him. He is obviously classy, but may be too fast to win a Guineas.

Back to Gstaad

All of that into the mix, and it is difficult to avoid coming back to Gstaad. Aidan O’Brien’s colt won the Coventry Stakes last season, and he was only just beaten in the Prix Morny and the National Stakes. He proved his ability to operate at Newmarket when he finished off his race well to finish second to the sadly ill-fated Gewan in the Dewhurst, when he had Distant Storm a length and a half behind him. Then he made light of a wide draw and wide passage to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Del Mar in November.

A half-brother to Richmond Stakes, Prix Morny and Middle Park Stakes winner Vandeek, he is Aidan O’Brien’s sole runner in the race, and he will be ridden by Ryan Moore. There is not much about him not to like.

He hasn’t run since the Breeders’ Cup, but that is the way with Aidan O’Brien. When he wins the Guineas, he wins it with a seasonal debutant. True, he hasn’t done so since 2019, but he has won the 2000 Guineas more often than any other trainer in the 217-year history of the race, and he has his horses in good form so far this season. He is operating at a strike rate of 27%.

Gstaad had the pace to win the Coventry Stakes and the stamina to stay the one-mile trip of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. He is proven at the track, handles the ground, and has proven that he can go well fresh. He is the correct favourite, and it is easy to argue that he is over-priced at 7/2.

Palace House Stakes

Earlier in the day, Frost At Dawn could be the answer to the HKJC World Pool Palace House Stakes. William Knight’s mare won just once last season, a listed race at Haydock in May, but she put up some high-class sprinting efforts in defeat, most notably when second, beaten a neck, by American Affair, in the King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot.

A winner over seven furlongs as a juvenile, she has got faster as she has got older. She won a Group 3 race over five furlongs in Dubai early in her three-year-old campaign, and she proved that she could operate at Newmarket when she went down by a neck to Tiger Bay in a fillies’ listed race over six furlongs at the Guineas meeting last year. She was well beaten by Asfoora in the Prix de l’Abbaye at Longchamp on her final run last season, but that was on soft ground, so you can allow her that.

She is better judged, relative to Asfoora, and her Nunthorpe Stakes run, when she finished third to her, beaten just over a length. She is 7lb better off with her Antipodean rival today, and that gives her a chance of reversing placings. She will love the ground, and she has a nice draw in stall 12, towards the near side. She could go well.

Recommended

Frost At Dawn 2.55 Newmarket 1 pt win @ 7/1 (generally)

Gstaad 3.35 Newmarket 1 pt win @ 7/2 (generally)