REMEMBER in 2001, when Castle Gandolfo was sent off at odds-on for the Vertem Futurity Trophy, the Racing Post Trophy as it was then, and his lesser-fancied stable companion High Chaparral beat him by three parts of a length?

Of course, we didn’t know then the peaks that High Chaparral would scale. That was Aidan O’Brien’s third Futurity Trophy, and you could have been forgiven for thinking that it might develop into a thing with the race: lesser-fancied Ballydoyle horse beating better-fancied stable companion.

Aidan O’Brien had fielded the winner twice before. When Saratoga Springs won it in 1997, he was the only Aidan O’Brien-trained horse in the race.

When Aristotle won it in 1999, he was sent off at the same price as his stable companion Lermontov, who chased him home.

Juveniles at the end of October, probably racing on easy ground, possibly stepping up in trip to a mile. It would be reasonable to expect that connections may not be certain of the pecking order.

But the evidence disproves the hypothesis. Aidan O’Brien has been responsible for six of the 17 winners since High Chaparral, from Brian Boru in 2002 to Magna Grecia last year, and all seven have been sent off as favourite. The market has been a strong indicator.

Favourite

Mogul is obviously the correct favourite for today’s race. A full-brother to Juddmonte International winner Japan, he has moved through the gears this season, from finishing a promising second on his racecourse debut at Gowran Park in August, to winning his maiden at the Curragh two weeks later, to winning the Group 2 KPMG Champions Juvenile Stakes at Leopardstown on Irish Champions Weekend last time.

But his stable companion Innisfree could also be a big player in the race. The Galileo colt has a similar profile to his stable companion: second on his racecourse debut, winner of his maiden, winner of a Group 2 contest.

He had to battle to win that Group 2 Beresford Stakes at the Curragh last time, he had to dig deep to get the better of old rival Shekhem, but Shekhem is a talented and progressive colt, and the pair of them pulled nicely clear of their rivals.

Also, he showed a really willing attitude that day, an attitude that could be important today if the rains continue to fall. On a strict line of form through the runner-up that day, Innisfree has three lengths to find with his stable companion. But it is probable that Dermot Weld’s horse improved from that Curragh maiden in August to the Beresford Stakes a month later.

Innisfree is also progressive, he will probably improve again from the Beresford Stakes, and that was on heavy ground, a career-best on heavy ground, so he should be fine under today’s conditions.

Casamento and Saxon Warrior have gone from victory in the Beresford Stakes to victory in today’s race in recent years, and Innisfree could run a big race today.

Cheltenham

It is probable that they will go fast from early in the Randox Health Handicap Chase at Cheltenham.

With Knocknanuss, Saint Calvados and Gino Trail in the line-up, it should be fast from early, and that should suit Brelan D’As.

Paul Nicholls’ horse is a keen-going sort who is at his best when he can just sit in behind a fast pace. He beat the useful Delire D’Estruval in a novices’ chase at Fakenham in February, and he stepped forward from that next time in finishing third in the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival.

He wasn’t far off the fast pace that day, and he kept on well up the hill to take third place behind Croco Bay and Bun Doran.

A novice last season, he hasn’t run since he was beaten in the Red Rum Chase at Aintree in April, but he can go well fresh, he won on his debut three seasons ago and he finished a close second in a novices’ handicap chase at Hereford on his debut last season, and it is probable that Paul Nicholls has had this race in mind for him for a while. He won it last year with Modus, whose profile going into the race was not wholly dissimilar to Brelan D’As’ now.

The handicapper left him on his mark of 138 after his Grand Annual run – he was 2lbs well-in there – which is a mark off which he should be competitive this season.

He is proven at Cheltenham and he is proven on soft and heavy ground, and he has Barry Geraghty for company, and he could have the race run to suit. There are lots of positives.

Recommended

Innisfree, 1 point win, 3.25 Doncaster, 4/1 (generally)

Brelan D’As, 1 point win, 3.10 Cheltenham, 5/1 (generally)