Donn McClean

IT is not ideal that the draw can have such an impact on a race that is as important and as valuable as the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

You can win from the car park for sure, but your chances decrease incrementally with every step that you take away from the inside rail, and those increments increase in direct correlation to the quickness of the ground.

Interesting piece of analysis conducted by Simon Rowlands of Timeform during the week.

Since the turn of the millennium, horses drawn in stalls one to four in the Arc finished in the first three 1.36 times more often than you would have expected by chance. In the nine renewals in which the ground was good or faster, however, that figure increases to 1.62. That is significant.

Of those towards the head of the market, New Bay has fared best with stall five, but Treve hasn’t fared too badly with stall eight (of 18).

You can be sure that, given a choice between taking stall eight and throwing all the balls back into the barrel and drawing again, Criquette Head-Maarek would have taken sa balle, stuck it into sa poche and run all the way home.

Of the visitors, Eagle Top got an inside draw and Tapestry got a middle draw, while Free Eagle and Golden Horn and Found all drew outside. It’s bad luck, the three shortest-priced visitors got the visitors’ draw.

It will be difficult for Found, emerging from stall 15. It is not impossible, Sakhee won from stall 15 in 2001, Dalakhani won from stall 14 in 2003 and Treve won from stall 15 in 2013.

So those three renewals were run on easy ground, but they haven’t given up on rain yet. Found will also have Ryan Moore for company, and that factor will always mitigate any potential negative at least a little.

Coral have pushed Found out to 25/1, and that is just too big. The draw aside for a second, Aidan O’Brien’s filly has a lot in her favour.

She is a top class filly, she was a top class juvenile last year, she was one of the best juvenile fillies in Europe last season, and she has progressed again as a three-year-old. She was a close-up second in the Irish 1000 Guineas and in the Coronation Stakes, before she ran out an impressive winner of the Royal Whip Stakes.

Okay, so that was just a three-horse race, but she couldn’t have been more impressive in beating the talented older colt Answered. Then she stepped up on that run to split Golden Horn and the unlucky Free Eagle in the Irish Champion Stakes.

The Galileo filly is stepping up to a mile and a half for the first time today, but it is probable that she will get the trip okay, and there is a good chance that she will improve for it.

Aidan O’Brien appears excited at the prospect of stepping her up in trip, it appears that the Arc has been on the trainer’s mind for her for a while, and you can easily argue that she is bred for it.

She is out of Lockinge Stakes and Matron Stakes winner Red Evie, who was also prolific over seven furlongs and who never went beyond a mile, but she is by stamina influence Galileo, and she is a full-sister to Magical Dream, who was only just beaten in the Group 3 Noblesse Stakes over a mile and a half.

She will have to put up a career-best performance if she is to win, but that is true of just about every horse, with the probable exception of Treve, and she is a progressive young filly who should be primed for a career-best.

As a progressive three-year-old filly, she has the ideal profile for the Arc. Three-year-olds have won 15 of the last 20 renewals and seven of the last 10 from 44% of the runners. Also, fillies have won the last four renewals and five of the last 10 from less than 22% of the runners, while three-year-old fillies have won three of the last 10 renewals from just over 10% of the runners.

A drop of rain between now and Sunday afternoon would help. Treve is a monster, but Found is no 25/1 shot.

ASCOT

Majestic Moon could be the answer to the Totescoop6 Challenge Cup at Ascot today. John Gallagher’s horse may not have received due recognition for winning a good handicap over today’s course and distance on his penultimate run, and he looks over-priced here at 16/1.

A lot of the post-race attention that day was on the interference that occurred between the winner and the runner-up, Suzi’s Connoisseur, and, under even subtly different rules (how long do you have?) you can easily argue that the placings should have been reversed.

However, watch the race again closely, and it is difficult to argue that the best horse in the race on the day did not win. Majestic Moon was actually going away again at the finish.

He did have the run of the race that day, he did get an easy enough lead, but he was still strong at the finish, he saw out the stiff seven furlongs well. Also, there is a chance that today’s race will be similarly-run. A 5lb higher mark may not be enough to prevent him from going close again.

He has been well beaten in the Ayr Gold Cup since, but that was over six furlongs, and he got slightly hampered at the half-way stage of the race, which wasn’t helpful.

He should be happier today back over seven furlongs - he hasn’t won over six since he won his maiden in July 2012 - and back at Ascot, a track at which course form is crucial.

Michael Murphy, who rode him for the first time for that win at Ascot, is back on board, he should know the horse even better today, and he is good value for his 3lb claim.

RECOMMENDED

FOUND, 2.55 Longchamp Sunday, 25/1 (Coral) 1 point win.

MAJESTIC MOON, 3.45 Ascot Saturday, 16/1 (generally) 1 point each-way.