THE Celebration Mile is not what it used to be. And it isn’t just because it used to be sponsored by Waterford Crystal.

In fairness, when you have a roll of honour that includes Brigadier Gerard and Kris and Known Fact and To-Agori-Mou and Selkirk and Mark Of Esteem, you set a high standard for yourself, you provide a high-class rod for your own back. Actually, the Celebration Mile hasn’t been what it used to be for a while now.

This afternoon’s renewal has cut up even from the five-day stage, a lot of it down to the easy conditions. Lightning Spear was effectively ruled out early in the week by Olly Stevens – who subsequently announced plans to bow out himself – even though he does have form on easy ground. Richard Pankhurst was ruled out again, we’re still eagerly awaiting his return, and Charlie Hills said that he would either Dutch Connection or Cable Bay, depending on conditions, not both. It rained, so it’s Cable Bay, as Dutch Connection waits. Like the Dutch in the Heineken ad.

Cable Bay has a chance, a better chance than odds of 6/1 suggest. Much of the evidence suggests that he is at his best over seven furlongs on easy ground, but he seemed to stay a mile okay in the Summer Mile at Ascot last month on unsuitably fast ground. Also, if you had watched his run in the Hungerford Stakes last time in isolation, without reference to prior form or previous performances, you could legitimately have argued that he could improve for a step up to a mile.

The Invincible Spirit gelding may generally be an under-rated horse. He did not get due recognition for the quality of the performance that he put up in finishing third in the Gladness Stakes at The Curragh in April when he didn’t have the run of the race. He definitely didn’t get the credit that he deserved when he finished a close-up fifth in the Lockinge Stakes in a race that was not run to suit. Even his win in the John of Gaunt Stakes at Haydock at the end of May did got get due recognition. The handicapper, for example, left him on his mark of 114.

He has his preferred easy ground today, and there is every chance that he will get a mile. He might even improve for it. He has never run over a mile on easy ground before.

Goodwood’s mile is an easy mile, the standard time is three and a half seconds faster than the standard time for a mile on Ascot’s round track, and that is in his favour. Also, on his only previous visit to Goodwood, as a juvenile, he belied odds of 20/1 to finish a neck second to Saayerr in the Group 2 Richmond Stakes.

Kodi Bear is the obvious standard-setter, he is talented and he is progressive, and he goes well on easy ground, as he proved when he finished second in the Dewhurst last October. However, he was well beaten in the Prix Jean Prat on his penultimate run, he finished seven and a half lengths behind runner-up Dutch Connection. He probably went too fast early on that day, but he was still exposed at that level.

While he looked good in winning the Group 3 Sovereign Stakes at Salisbury last time, that may not have been that strong a race in the end. He may well win today, but he is very short at odds-on.

Breton Rock is the other obvious danger. He will appreciate any more rain that falls, David Simcock’s horse can’t have it soft enough, but he is a seven-furlong specialist and, at a slightly bigger price, Cable Bay may represent better value.

Blue Surf may by the value of the March Stakes 35 minutes earlier. Amanda Perrett’s horse has been disappointing on the face of it on his last two runs, but there have been excuses. His penultimate run was in the Northumberland Plate, when he raced up with the pace from early in a race in which they went a fast gallop and the finish of which was dominated by the hold-up horses.

His most recent run was in a hot handicap at Glorious Goodwood over 10 furlongs, a distance that is probably a fair bit too sharp for him these days as a six-year-old.

When he won a good handicap at Epsom on Derby day over a mile and a half, he was under pressure from a fair way out, so he should be seen to better effect now, back up to a mile and six furlongs. He does not have much to find on official ratings and, a prominent racer, the small field here should suit him well. He goes well on soft ground, he goes well at Goodwood, Amanda Perrett’s local track, and he could outrun odds of 9/1 or 10/1 by a fair way.

RECOMMENDED

BLUE SURF, 10/1 (generally) 1 point win.

CABLE BAY, 6/1 (generally) 1 point win.