SO it looks like the rules of racing are going to be harmonised across national boundaries in Europe. It looks like a horse will not be disqualified in France any more if it looks sideways at a steward.

The International Federation of Horseracing Authorities have come up with a model rule for said homogenisation, under its harmonisation of raceday rules committee, to which it looks like the French and the Germans are set to sign up.

In a nutshell, under the new Article 32, if a horse causes interference but does not improve its position relative to the horse who has suffered the interference, then it will not be thrown out. If it does improve its relative position, then throw him out away, bath water and all.

It’s all very fine, horses should race under the same rules everywhere in the world. It’s common sense. However, we are still left with the difficulty in determining whether or not a horse has improved its position. That remains unclarified.

PROBABILITY

It is rare that you can say with certainty (100%) that a horse improved its position or did not improve its position relative to the horse with whom it has interfered. Would the horse have won anyway without the interference? You can only estimate with degrees of certainty, with degrees of probability.

There is still no directive regarding to which horse the benefit of the doubt should go: the victor or the victim.

What if the stewards are 90% certain that the ‘winner’ would have won anyway? What if they are 60% certain that he wouldn’t? What if they just don’t know, if it is impossible to call, if it is genuinely 50-50?

As things stand, in Ireland and Britain, to varying degrees, the benefit of the doubt usually goes to the victor when common sense dictates that the benefit of the doubt should go to the victim. It makes sense both from the point of view of natural justice and from the point of view of safety.

It would dilute the win-at-all-costs mentality that pervades at present. Get to the winning line first and take your chances in the stewards’ room, where the ‘winner’ is usually an odds-on shot.

The burden of proof should really be on the horse who has caused the interference. Hopefully the harmonisation of raceday rules committee can address that one next.

Coolmore buys Dubawi colt for two million

Godolphin buys Galileo filly for four million

So much for 10-year-trends.