THERE was a bit of an ‘Ivanovich Gorbatov’ feel about US Army Ranger’s victory in the 10-furlong maiden at The Curragh on Sunday.
Not that US Army Ranger is a live candidate for the Triumph Hurdle, but for Triumph Hurdle, insert ‘Derby’, and you can leave most other things as they are.
Both trained by Aidan O’Brien, both well-regarded before their seasonal debut, but both weak in the pre-race market, both second favourite behind another well-touted horse from a big yard. Both impressive in victory, both beating the favourite into second place with the pair of them nicely clear.
And then the aftermath. It was a matter of minutes before the 14/1 that was available about Ivanovich Gorbatov for the Triumph Hurdle became 8/1, and it was a matter of days before the 8/1 became 9/2.
Similarly on Sunday, the 20/1 and 25/1 that had been available about US Army Ranger for the Derby was quickly cut to 16/1, then 14/1, then 12/1. The best you could have done on Monday morning was 10/1, and even that came under pressure early. Now, the best you will get is 6/1, and, all things being equal, there is only one way that that price is going to go.
There is one major difference, mind you. On the day on which Ivanovich Gorbatov won his maiden hurdle, there were three other two-mile hurdle races run, and Aidan O’Brien’s horse clocked the fastest time of the four. On Sunday at the Curragh, there were two other races run over 10 furlongs, and US Army Ranger clocked the slowest time of the three.
In mitigation, Ivanovich Gorbatov’s race was the first race of the day, probably run on the best of the ground, whereas US Army Ranger’s race was the last race on the day, probably run on the worst of the ground.
Of course, we will learn more after the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial or the Chester Vase, whatever route his trainer chooses for the Galileo colt, but, if you are taking the 6/1 now, you are late to the party, and you are betting more on his breeding and the regard in which he appears to be held by Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore than you are on what he did on Sunday.