A FEW weeks back in this paper, Gordon Elliott said that he had altered his approach to buying horses, commenting in an interview with Mark Boylan that ‘we’re not trying to buy a boat…you’re getting a really wet month every now and then when those huge horses might thrive, but I think we’ve probably been guilty at times before of buying too big a horse.’

This idea seems prompted by a gradual change in ground conditions for National Hunt racing, as climate change brings about higher temperatures and less rain.

Elliott is likely correct in the direction of travel but it is worth pointing out that the most recent complete jumps season was one of the driest in recent times and may not be one to base decisions on entirely.

Ireland remains a country that gets more than its share of rainfall, and the 2024/’25 National Hunt season was unusual in that regard, as the table below shows.

In it, the number of races in each of the past five seasons is given along with the number of races run with heavy in the going description and the percentage of each. Last season had the lowest percentage of races with heavy or soft-to-heavy as the going description, and by a distance too, just 7.6% when a figure in the 20s can be expected. Furthermore, most of the big festivals took place on nice ground last year.

The Navan Racing Festival last year was good on day one then yielding on day two, whereas the Punchestown Winter Festival was soft, and the Hatton’s Grace meeting mainly yielding. Leopardstown at Christmas was a mix of good and yielding while the DRF had some soft with yielding.

Even Fairyhouse at Easter, when the first day was abandoned, was only soft while the Punchestown Festival was run on yielding.

Slower conditions

We would seem due some slower conditions this winter, and we got them last weekend at Gowran and Naas with Fairyhouse abandoned on Tuesday due to the waterlogging, and it was interesting to hear trainers like Robert Tyner and Jimmy Mangan, both old school handlers that do well with chasers, say recently that last season was very frustrating with so much good ground.

So, who might be the beneficiaries of a wet winter? Mangan would have hoped Spillane’s Tower would be one after only having three runs last season, but he disappointed in the Brown Lad on Sunday. His head carriage was a touch awkward then so ground may not have been the issue.

More broadly, these conditions suit horses that want the emphasis on stamina and Gordon Elliott has plenty of those, even with a slightly altered approach to buying horses.

Stellar Story stands out, and he hasn’t really had a slog since his Albert Bartlett win as a novice hurdler while rain would also suit Teahupoo and even Brighterdaysahead.

Willie Mullins has plenty of horses that thrive in the mud and Spindleberry is one. She missed a target last year due to the ground but returned at Clonmel last week and should have a good season ahead.

Perhaps Energumene could bounce back too, even at age 11, as all four of his runs last season came on ground no slower than yielding.

Last year’s Gold Cup winner Inothewayurthinkin might enjoy a better winter with some ease in the ground too. Perhaps he is a spring horse, but the ground was faster than ideal for his two Leopardstown runs last season.

Away from the major yards, Intense Raffles is one that does well in the mud. He got only one opportunity under his favoured conditions last season, i.e. staying chases and testing ground, when he ran subsequent Grand National winner Nick Rockett to three-quarters of a length.

Improvement

Jetara too has always enjoyed a slog, and her improvement last spring, when making the frame in a pair of Grade 1s, suggests there may be more to come back on a slower surface.

Her most recent spin on the flat in a steadily run Colm White Bookmaker Beggar’s End Handicap was unlikely to suit.

Finally, Oscars Brother has done a lot of racing on decent ground lately but has often looked to enjoy testing ground and he looked all stamina when winning at Galway last month.

Perfect timing for Il Etait Temps

SOFT ground over the past week meant that some good horses were out early and Willie Mullins landed a short-priced feature race double at Clonmel last Thursday with Spindleberry and Il Etait Temps, the results of both races never in real doubt.

Their two races, over the same trip 35 minutes apart, were run in contrasting styles. The pace in the T.A. Morris Memorial Irish EBF Mares Chase was notably steady, and it took Spindleberry 23.3 seconds longer to complete the course than Il Etait Temps as she controlled the race from the front, jumping well. Kilbarry Saint could have done with a clearer run while Bioluminescence seemed in need of the run.

The outsider Senecia ensured the Clonmel Oils Chase was run at a stronger gallop and he jumped well in a clear lead but was easily passed by Il Etait Temps on the run to the second last. The winner travelled typically strongly and this should set him up for the Tingle Creek at Sandown, this early part of his season having gone much smoother this time around.

AT Naas on Sunday, the finish of the Barberstown Castle Chase was fought out by two likeable and reliable types in Only By Night and Champ Kiely, both of whom carried big penalties.

Only By Night impressed with how she travelled and jumped before showing a willing attitude late, so it was a little surprising that Gavin Cromwell mentioned the John and Chich Fowler Memorial at Fairyhouse on New Year’s Day for her, given she looks to have plenty of speed and Spindleberry would be a strong stayer at that sort of trip.

Champ Kiely put in an encouraging return, again showing his versatility on both trip and ground, and he could be a lively outsider in something like the John Durkan or King George.

His stablemate Ile Atlantique was disappointing given he was nicely treated at the weights here and tends to go well fresh. Perhaps he needed it but that might be looking for an excuse that isn’t there.

The beginners’ chase run directly after the Barberstown had some high-profile disappointments, not least The Wallpark who seemed not to take to fences, but time comparisons put the novices in a good light with the graded chasers, and this form should work out in handicaps at least.

The winner Irish Panther looks a reformed character this season and won well while Jacob’s Ladder should be better up in trip. Pure Steel was having his first run since January and had a lot to find with some of these on hurdles form but went through the race well before suffering a nasty piece of hampering at the second last.

The fourth Supreme Jet was returning from a long absence, and he was keen off the back of it, but his jumping was notably fast, and it is easy to forgive his flattening out late.

Goraibhmaithagat has stamina in his pedigree and looks one for a longer trip, keeping on well in the finish.