I HAD a long love-hate relationship with the Arc. It was mostly hate in my younger years because the horses I had loved through the season were generally beaten in Paris. Ardross, Troy, Sun Princess, Mtoto...
How could it be a great race when the best horses were regularly beaten and a ‘randomer’ took the prize? Who cheered for Tony Bin and Saumarez? Things improved in the late 90s, more of the best horses won. Montjeu left Alastair Down with a memorable line in 1999, “Kinane didn’t merely flirt with danger, he was in bed with it two furlongs out.”
Sinndar and Sakhee were worthy winners to cheer. Zarkava and Sea The Stars were memorable champions, sealing their careers on the last big stage.
Treve, Golden Horn, Enable and Ace Impact were more top-class winners.
Tomorrow’s race looks wide open and as good a betting heat as the Royal Hunt Cup or Wokingham, since the draw and the going are likely to play big parts. There is also the concern of where the pace comes from? Would one of the Japanese runners go forward? And I’ve backed four horses! Last year, Bluestocking beat Aventure, Los Angeles and Sosie. The second is probably the correct favourite on her Vermeille win. I backed Sosie in the summer at 16s as the Eclipse was never going to suit him on faster ground. Softer will suit but I’m not sure he has the pace to win.
Highest rated horse
In the latest World Racehorse Rankings, last year’s third Los Angeles is actually the highest rated horse, ahead of Byzantine Dream, from this field.
He was strong favourite ahead of Ombudsman for the Princess of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot, on the basis of his earlier form. He disappointed there, he has been trained for this and his last run on trials day was not that bad. He stays well, goes on soft, and can be hard to pass. Even from a wide draw, taking all into account and the cheekpieces added, the 33s looks value.
I have reservations about the Japanese being good enough, even before Croix Du Nord got whacked by the draw. They have won prep races impressively before but failed on the big day. Jockeyship and softer ground in a big field could also be their undoing.
Kalpana has drifted since her Kempton defeat, a prep run away from the Group 1s and the bigger names, and cheekpieces could help. Juddmonte have such a good record in the race. The ground should be fine and her second to Calandagan in the King George is among the best bits of form.
I’ve also had a bit each-way at 33s on Quisisana, just on the after-race comments when she won the Prix Romanet, though the extra distance is a concern.
How good is Minnie Hauk? She looked a bit of a grinder, really staying the mile and a half at the Curragh. The time figures from York gave more hope but she has only beaten one decent older horse, and that one struggled to win a Group 2 at Haydock before York.
It leaves the French three-year-olds as somewhat dark horses. Can Daryz, Leffard and Cualificar step up? They have decent form and it would be no surprise.
Cualificar put up a good performance in the Neil and his half-length second in the Qatar Prix du Jockey Club to Camille Pissarro ties him in with the best form of the Eclipse and Delacroix. It might be no surprise to see the ‘King’ André Fabre return to glory in a year dominated by the Graffard stable. He too looks worth a bet at 16s.