“There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact.” - Sherlock Holmes

IF it looks too good to be true, then it usually is? It’s hard to find anyone who doesn’t think Benvenuto Cellini is the most likely winner of today’s Derby.

The race has had its favourite decided from some way out. The bookies and the form book say it, the stride data men say it, the sectional time men say it. Benvenuto stands out.

Benvenuto Cellini was favourite for the Futurity Stakes last October, usually a decider of the top-staying two-year-olds. He was beaten there, three and a quarter lengths by stable companions Hawk Mountain and Action, on the heavy ground.

But his Chester Vase win secured him back at the top of the ante-post market.

Andy Stephens’ RaceiQ data analysis on the RacingTV site is hugely positive, saying: “You can quibble with the quality of his form, but not the manner of his wins; the evidence of the clock; or what the data is screaming about his untapped reserves of staying power,” and adding: “There is not a horse in the Derby who strides more like a stayer than this fellow.”

He also won the same race at a mile at Leopardstown that was won by Australia and Auguste Rodin in the past. And he kicked off his campaign this year with a wide-margin success in the Chester Vase; a race Ruler Of The World, Wings Of Eagles and Lambourn contested for Ballydoyle before going to Epsom.

Full stretch

And then we need a bit of class to win a Derby and he fits that bill too, as the RaceiQ data provides: “This colt is not a slowcoach and at full stretch he can eat up ground like no others.

His stride reached a maximum of 8.39 metres as a juvenile, when losing his maiden tag at Killarney” and Chester did not prevent him reaching 8.36. He averaged 7.98 in the latter race, “a distance many horses cannot ever hope to obtain. The heavy going in the Futurity at the end of last year clearly blunted his main weapon.”

The Race iQ data also finds that long striders have thrived in recent editions of the Derby. Lambourn touched 8.06 metres on his way to victory last year, when the three longest striders in the line-up finished in the first four.

Twelve months earlier, the long striders City Of Troy (7.98 metres maximum) beat Ambiente Friendly (7.84). And third-placed Los Angeles (7.69) was fourth highest.

Quickest time

And there’s more! His winning time in the Chester Vase was the quickest since 2002; almost five seconds better than Lambourn the year before, albeit on faster terrain. He got a RaceiQ Time Index of 9.6, when the meeting average was 8, and signed off with four successive “fast” furlongs, which he completed in 47.31 sec.

The data summary confirms that he has speed and stamina, a good preparation and is in the care of a trainer who knows how to win the premier classic, with Aidan O’Brien seeking a 12th win in the race.

And Benvenuto Cellini is drawn in stall 12. Three previous winners of the race have been drawn in stall 12, so no issues there.

But, is it not all just too good?

I wasn’t taken by Item at York, he hung fire before going on to win and I think this is a big test and improvement needed. James J Braddock is certainly worthy of his place on his Leopardstown run and you could see him in the first three.

A French Group 1 winner, Pierre Bonnard was rated a pound above Benvenuto Cellini in the official two-year-old classifications last year, but has been disappointing in his two runs this term. We have seen second strings from Aidan O’Brien win the Derby before, Lambourn being the most recent.

Only four of the last 12 winners were favourite or joint-favourites. Surprisingly, only six of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Derby.

The ground is expected to dry out somewhat from all the rain this week, but I can’t help feeling that Christophe Soumillon, who desires that Derby win, could get a good response from this colt and be the one to confound the data.

At the odds, he is the selection.

Derby dreaming

FOR all the Aidan O’Brien dominance, there are also some potentially great stories for pre-race Derby promotion. A win for the 40,000gns purchase James J Braddock for the Joseph O’Brien/Kevin Blake partnership would be pretty phenomenal and in a field where Poker cost 4.3 million guineas and Ancient Egypt 1.1 million.

And film producer George Waud said winning the Betfred Derby as an owner with Maltese Cross would be his “greatest achievement”, another entertaining addition in the owners’ ranks. “It’s a total honour to have a horse good enough to run in a Derby,” he said this week.

We do have as many good stories as some of the top jumping contests.

Can Calandagan face the pace?

THERE were some online grumblings about Ballydoyle runners dominating the French Derby, with the pace set up for Constitution River.

But, each of the first three ran their race throughout and the rest of the field were not good enough to even pass the pacemaker, so… nothing to see or moan about there!

But today’s Coronation Cup is hugely intriguing from the pacemaking point of view, to try and beat one of the world’s best horse in Calandagan, a horse who is ridden from behind and has a good turn of foot. Jan Brueghel beat him here last year. He’s a Leger winner, who stays a mile and six, so needs a good pace. Lambourn made most to win the Derby, and Illinois was second in the Gold Cup at Ascot. Whatever the Ballydoyle intentions and for how it pans out, it could well be the race of the day.

Time for chesnuts

HE may have the form in the book but a striking white-faced chesnut, from two bay parents, Benvenuto Cellini would have had his Derby merit questioned back 40 or more years ago, when flashy chesnuts were not desirable. I well remember the rhymes used to knock The Minstrel back in his racing career until he won the Derby.

One white foot, buy a horse,

Two white feet, try a horse

Three white feet, look well about him

Four white feet, do without him

But its not an issue with plenty of chesnut winners, the recent years having 2010 New Approach, 2013 Ruler Of The World, 2014 Australia, 2018 Masar and 2020 Serpentine.

SimonNott@SimonNott

The prestige brands that really should be target sponsors have distanced themselves because racing has actually caved in to people trying to demonise betting, if a sport is actively ashamed of its main funding source what chance have we got.

Nick Alexander@kinneston

Another day and another good trainer packs up. Sensible for Noel but sad for the sport, the only way to turn the sport round is radical reform of prize money to create sustainability at all levels. Noel’s last winner would have earned £1917 for the Owner… says it all, completely unsustainable and the horses simply won’t be there in the future if this doesn’t change. [On the retirement of trainer Noel Williams this week in Britain]