THE two-day Future Champions Day meeting at Newmarket confirmed that Darkness Falls is a top-class racehorse and showcased three very talented performers in the shape of Musical Times, Drumbeat and Rock Montreal, who do not yet belong in the Darkness Falls category, but have abundant potential.
As ever, the data reveals just how good these horses are at this stage of their careers, it remains open to conjecture just how much potential they have and therefore how good they will be as three-year-olds.
If I was to create a rather crude and rudimentary pecking order based on what they have achieved so far, I would go with the following:
1. Darkness Falls
2. Drumbeat
3. Musical Times
4. Rock Montreal
I would add that Drumbeat may be the one who is underestimated in this list after what was the best time performance of the meeting, achieved in a comfortable fashion and he should not be overlooked as a live Derby candidate.
Darley Dewhurst Stakes (Group1)
The big question when it came to the Dewhurst was whether Darkness Falls would have enough speed to handle the drop down in trip after his nine-furlong success in the Golden Fleece Stakes at Leopardstown.
The answer to that was an emphatic yes and is a salutary reminder that top-class horses can run fast whatever the trip.
Darkness Falls won in a fast time of 1m 22.47s and, in so doing, he produced the fastest furlong of his career and hit the highest speed of his career.
The race was evenly run, with the whole field quickening two furlongs out and it was through this furlong that Darkness Falls hit his career-best sectional of 10.96s hitting 41.24mph.
He was not the fastest horse in the race through this furlong, with both Desert Castle (second) and Great Barrier Reef (third) faster than him, but he was able to sustain his speed better than both by being the fastest horse in the race through the final furlong with a sectional of 11.78s.
Data does not identify with visual impression, but I cannot help but think that Darkness Falls was always holding Desert Castle, even though there was only 1/100th of a second between them both in the final furlong.
This is in accordance with us knowing that Darkness Falls stays further, after all he outstayed the subsequent impressive winner Jesus Green at Leopardstown and, now that we know how much speed he can find, we have a horse of rare, versatile ability.
Champion
Make no mistake, he has the making of a champion and, while talk of a Triple Crown next year requires plenty of stars to align at once, it is far from fanciful.
He has a mixed pedigree, a blend of speed and stamina and he seems to be just what the pedigree suggests, a horse who will stay middle distances, but also with a turn of foot which will make him an ideal Derby candidate, but the Guineas will be first on the agenda and now he is top of the pecking order for that race.
One final point on this race is not data related in any way, but if you watch the race again, and closely observe Darkness Falls at the one-furlong marker, you will see him prick his left ear and have a look at the crowd, a sign perhaps that if he had the energy to and notion to do that, there was plenty in the tank. Perhaps more a theory for the ‘Lugs never lie’ theorists rather than data analysts.
bet365 Fillies’ Mile (Group 1)
THE ground at Newmarket last Friday was described as good. Data confirmation of this description is difficult because there was a significant tailwind throughout the course of the meeting, although the times of the final three races suggest that the effect of the wind had abated by then. The effect of the wind was to produce data that suggested the ground was good to firm and that is detailed below with the caveat of the weather conditions attached.
Race iQ Time Index Values vs Par:
1. Mussab 9.9 (-2.04s vs Par)
2. Lola De Valence 8.0 (-1.62s vs Par)
3. Never So Brave 7.9 (-1.42s vs Par)
4. Musical Times 8.9 (-2.54s vs Par)
5. Study Of Words 9.8 (-5.30s vs Par)
6. Ruby’s Angel 4.9 (+0.43s vs Par)
7. Song Of The Clouds 7.7 (-1.95s vs Par)
8. Bintola 6.1 (-0.37svs Par)
(Meeting Average Time Index: 7.9)
This race is an example of one where a collateral form analyst would point to the form lacking in substance, but data analysts will ignore the substance and focus on the winners’ bright turn of foot.
Musical Times is unbeaten in four starts and will be on the 1000 Guineas trail after this impressive performance, where she overcame plenty of adversity.
Exceptionally made the running at an even gallop, with Musical Times covered up in fourth place. Three furlongs out, she was shuffled back to sixth place clocking 11.32s, whilst Haven (second), Forbidden Fire (third), Lex Victoria (fourth) and Scommessa Sicura (fifth) were all quickening and ran faster than her, but as soon as Musical Times saw daylight, her speed got her out of trouble. Her final two furlongs of 11.25s and 12.24s were both faster than Par, with none of her rivals able to break par. The final two-furlong splits of the first three are shown below, outlining her final quarter mile superiority.
Final two-furlong splits:
1st: Musical Times: 23.50s
2nd: Haven: 23.91s
3rd: Forbidden Fire: 24.08s
Her penultimate furlong took her from being 0.28s off the leader to 0.17s in front, which equates to her making up two and three-quarter lengths on her rivals along the course of that single furlong. This impressive turn of foot was too much for Haven, who kept on strongly without having the same change of gear as the winner.
Haven did, however, justify being supplemented for this with a much-improved performance and she will stay further. Aside from Haven, the race fell apart with Forbidden Fire, Lex Victoria and Scommessa Sicura all running their fastest furlongs from three furlongs to two furlongs out, before failing to stay.
On this occasion, against this opposition Musical Times utilised her sharp turn of foot to get out of trouble, which might not have been the case had her rivals been able to quicken clear whilst she was stuck in traffic, but ultimately, she was able to showcase her closing speed, which is her main weapon - whether it will be enough to beat a rival like Sun Goddess in the 1000 Guineas is debatable.
THE second day of the meeting brought with it more wind and, whilst it was helping the runners up the Rowley Mile, it was not as strong as on the previous day. The ground was described as good to soft (good in places), but after one race was changed to good (good to soft in places).
Even taking the wind into account, there is a strong argument that the ground had been underestimated and was actually good to firm, and this is backed up by the data with the meeting average Race iQ Time Index being 8.9, which compares to 7.9 on the first day of the meeting.
Race iQ Time Index values vs Par:
1. Humidity 8.8 (-2.87s vs Par)
2. Drumbeat 10.0 (-4.02s vs Par)
3. Rock Montreal 7.2 (-1.37s vs Par)
4. Darkness Falls 9.2 (-2.30s vs Par)
5. Alphonse Le Grande 9.0 (-4.98s vs Par)
6. Cullenagh Rainbow 8.7 (-2.33s vs Par)
7. Midgham Man 9.3 (-2.65s vs Par)
The universal marker for a top-class horse racing over 10 furlongs is the final time of 2.00 minutes. Even though there was a slight tailwind here, Drumbeat still clocked a very fast 2m0.72s giving him a 10 out of 10 Time Index and he is clearly a very smart prospect with the Derby surely on his agenda next season.
Drumbeat had contested four races prior to this and all of them were tests of speed rather than stamina. He still performed with credit in all of them, flashing plenty of speed with Finishing Speed Percentages of 111.04%, 109.20%, 107.41%, and 112.60%, but it was his stamina that he was able to showcase here, with an emphatic and impressive five-and-a-half-length success.
This race was run at a tempo that tested stamina, a strong, even gallop, ensuring that there was no hiding place and Drumbeat galloped out relentlessly.
He was rated perfectly by Ryan Moore to record a Finishing Speed Percentage of 101.20% with par being 102.21% and his individual sectionals showed little deviation through the race as he maintained a strong even gallop, as displayed below with an indication of how they compare to the par expectation.
Drumbeat sectionals:
F1: 15.74s (Par)
F2: 11.70s (Par)
F3: 11.38s (Fast)
F4: 11.43s (Fast)
F5: 11.66s (Par)
F6: 11.81s (Slow)
F7: 11.47s (Par)
F8: 11.51s (Par)
F9: 11.78s (Slow)
F10: 12.50s (Par)
His strong final furlong of 12.50s was 0.73s (four and a half lengths) quicker than the runner-up, providing evidence that Drumbeat relished the trip and improved considerably for it.
He came into the race with the best form and was entitled to win, but the manner of his success and the final time he produced earmarks him for a Derby trial next season, with the Criterium de St Cloud and Futurity at Doncaster possibilities if connections wished to go again this season.
There may be a number of his stablemates who have better Derby credentials than him, but a price of 25/1 for Epsom is big enough.
COMPARATIVELY, this was the slowest time on the card, with Rock Montreal completing the mile trip in 1m 36.31s, a time that was produced with a fast finish in a race that was run at a steady tempo. Notable Dream and Sergei Diaghliev took the field along in splits that meant that Rock Montreal ran each of the first four furlongs in times that were slower than par.
Given the relatively steady early pace, he was at a positional disadvantage being held-up in rear and in the circumstances did well to run down Sergei Diaghliev, who effectively got first run. Both completed fast final splits, as detailed below.
Rock Montreal / Sergei Diahgliev:
F6: 11.04s (Fast) 11.20s (Fast)
F7: 11.13s (Fast) 11.17s (Fast)
F8: 12.20s (Fast) 12.20s (Fast)
The speed shown by Rock Montreal to run down a useful rival was impressive, his finishing effort producing an above par FSP of 103.17% (Par: 98.78%), but with the early part of the race being steadily run, this was not a strong test of stamina at the trip and doubts must remain about his ability to see out a strongly-run mile given his sprinting pedigree.
No doubt he will be trained for the 2000 Guineas, and this was a performance that shows he handles the Rowley Mile, but there will be stronger candidates for that colts’ classic, not least Darkness Falls, who took the next race on the card.