Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1)

THERE should be no doubt that Gaelic Warrior put up the most impressive performance of the week at Cheltenham, in a Gold Cup romp that saw him easily produce the best time of the week.

Gaelic Warrior won in a time of 6m 39.2s, which is the fastest time in the race since Sizing John won in 2017. He was on edge before the race and a bit keen early on, but it was all very straightforward for Paul Townend.

The three and a quarter mile trip was an unknown quantity for him, but he saw it out very strongly recording an FSP of 108.69% in what was an evenly-run race.

In finishing as strongly as he did, he didn’t just see off tiring rivals, he ran away from horses who were also finishing strongly in what was a data-busting display of speed over this staying trip.

Gold Cup Finishing Speed Percentages

1st Gaelic Warrior: 108.69%

2nd Jango Baie: 106.04%

3rd Inothewayurthinkin: 106.61%

4th Grey Dawning: 102.51%

His dominance through the final half mile was stark. He was the only horse through the final two furlongs to record a sub-15.00s furlong, not only displaying his ability to stay this trip, but also demonstrating a turn of foot.

His final two furlongs were 14.48s and 14.97s, which compares to Jango Baie in second who clocked 15.09s and 15.75s. This dominance through the final two furlongs saw him approach the last fence two miles an hour faster than Jango Baie and, remarkably, this fast finish saw him complete the final four furlongs 0.92s faster than Dinoblue in the Mares Chase.

All the speed that he showed to win an Arkle in 2024 was in evidence here. In that Arkle, he clocked a top speed of 35.78mph, in this Gold Cup, he hit a high of 35.80mph three furlongs for home as he quickened clear.

In winning both races, he joins Alverton (1978/79) as the only horse to complete this unique double. To see this trip out as well as he did and display Arkle-winning speed, tells us that he is a unique racehorse with a huge engine.

He jumped efficiently, recording the highest Jump Index in the race of 8.3 replicating his lifetime score.

His jumping did not give him a big edge on the runner-up, who had a Jump Index of 7.9, but it is worth noting that aside from the first two, the rest of the field jumped relatively poorly losing plenty of ground on the first two with sloppy jumps.

Upgrade

It’s worth giving last year’s winner Inothewayurthinkin an upgrade given how poorly he jumped. He gave away 14.37 lengths to Gaelic Warrior with his jumping and, given that he was beaten 10 lengths, his inefficient jumping cost him any chance of winning.

He lost ground on his rivals at the first 13 fences, seemingly taking an age to warm to his task. He did stay on quite strongly in the final two furlongs, but his jumping let him down. His Jump Index of 7.4 compares with the 8.0 score that he achieved when winning this race in 2024.

It is not impossible to think that he would have been second with a better round of jumping, but it is fanciful to think he would have got anywhere near one of the most outstanding winners of the Cheltenham Gold Cup of the modern era.

THE defection of Fact To File from the Ryanair Chase based on the state of the ground was one that connections agonised over and left them frustrated.

Their criticism of the track’s watering policy was harsh given the weather forecast, which suggested rain was on the way and the ground was genuinely Good according to the times on the day and was described as such by officials.

It is inconceivable that as a sport we get into a position where the ground must be tailored for high profile horses and clerks must resist such pressure in the interests of integrity and fairness. The ground was described as Good, and this description is backed up by the times on the day when compared to the standard.

The most reliable time of the seven came in the Ryanair, where the pace was stronger than in any of the other races and that race easily produced the best time of the day, with Heart Wood breaking the standard time.

Cheltenham day three

Final Times and Finishing Speed Percentages.

Race 1: White Noise: (+6.59s) FSP: 104.32%

Race 2: Meetmebythesea (+2.84s) FSP: 106.56%

Race 3: Wodhooh: (+4.95s) FSP: 106.37%

Race 4: Home By the Lee: (+4.14s) FSP: 102.11%

Race 5: Heart Wood: (-0.66s) FSP: 101.54%

Race 6: Supremely West: (+7.36s) FSP: 101.54%

Race 7: Ask Brewster: (+8.44s) FSP: 105.36%

The most interesting race on the Thursday card in terms of analytics was the Stayers’ Hurdle won by Home By The Lee. He is the first horse in history to win a championship race at the Festival at the fifth time of asking.

That he could win this at the age of 11, is testament to his consistency but is perhaps an indictment of the strength of the staying hurdle division. Whilst he was a decisive winner in the end, the data is clear that Ballyburn (second) was the best horse in the race and should have won.

Paddy Power Stayers Hurdle: (Grade 1)

THE pace in this race was as crucial as ever, with the winner attending the steady gallop whilst the runner-up was held up in the rear. With half a mile to run, Home By The Lee was 0.92s (five lengths) ahead of Ballyburn, a deficit that was reduced to 0.31s (one and a quarter lengths) by the line, with Ballyburn completing the final four furlongs in 55.96s compared to the winner who took 56.67s.

Through each of the final four furlongs, Ballyburn was quicker than Home By The Lee, but he was trying to catch a horse who was not stopping - as evidenced by Home By The Lee’s FSP of 102.11%.

Ballyburn would have finished even closer to the winner if he had not been hampered at the last, forcing him to switch to the middle of the track having looked for a run up the rail going down to the last.

Home By The Lee approached the last flight of hurdles at 30.05mph and was quickly away from the hurdle losing just 1.83mph. Ballyburn was travelling faster going into the last, recording a speed of 31.58mph, but he was hampered and had to step on the brakes, losing 4.41mph. By the time he had regained his impetus, Home By The Lee was away and gone.

Bally burns

There were 475 horses who ran at the Cheltenham Festival and not one clocked a higher speed than Ballyburn. He was able to clock a speed of 37.88mph down the hill, which for context can be compared to Lossiemouth whose top speed was 36.94mph. Home By The Lee has improved since fitted with blinkers on his last two starts and has now won three Grade 1 races in his career and his trainer Joseph O’Brien deserves plenty of credit for conjuring a new lease of life out of this veteran, but should he meet Ballyburn again, it is hard to see how he can confirm the form - especially in a race run at a stronger pace.

AFTER overnight rain, the ground on Friday was described as Good to Soft (Soft in places), which ironically would have been ideal for Fact To File had he been supplemented for the Gold Cup.

There were two outstanding times on the day from Gaelic Warrior and Dinoblue, both of whom broke standard, interestingly there were three races on the chase course, and they were all a lot faster than the hurdle race times - which would suggest that the ground was faster on the chase course given that all of the races on the day were run at speeds that allowed for relatively strong finishes.

Cheltenham day four

Final Times and Finishing Speed Percentages.

Race 1: Apolon De Charnie: (+9.45s) FSP: 102.52%

Race 2: Wilful: (+9.14s) FSP: 106.64%

Race 3: Dinoblue: (-0.62s) FSP: 105.32%

Race 4: Johnny’s Jury: (+13.64s) FSP: 105.39%

Race 5: Gaelic Warrior: (-10.98s) FSP: 108.69%

Race 6: Barton Snow: (+3.33s) FSP: 102.90%

Race 7: Air Of Entitlement: (+18.84s) FSP: 108.14%

Mrs Paddy Power Mares Chase (Grade 2)

IT is not fanciful to suggest that Dinoblue could have won the Ryanair Chase after what she achieved in what was a career-best performance in the Mares Chase.

Dinoblue won this race in a time of 5m7.9s, which was 0.2 seconds faster than Heart Wood in the Ryanair on ground that was officially described as being slower - albeit the chase course seemed to ride faster than the official description on Friday.

As always, final time analysis can be deceptive, and we should be cognisant of how both races were run.

Stronger early gallop

The Ryanair was run at a stronger early gallop than the Mares Chase, with the first mile being run 3.41s faster. Thereafter, Dinoblue was 1.39s faster than Heart Wood through the next mile and then 1.64s faster through the final five furlongs.

Dinoblue was able to distribute her energy more evenly than Heart Wood, who went very hard through the first mile, but even so, to complete the final 13 furlongs faster than the Ryanair winner is impressive.

Dinoblue jumped very efficiently, recording a Race IQ Jump Index of 8.5 out of 10, which compares to her lifetime score of 8.0. She gained 4.99 lengths on Only By Night in second and 2.42 lengths on Panic Attack in third.

Heart Wood is not as good a jumper as Dinoblue, recording a jump index of 7.8 in the Ryanair with a lifetime score of 7.7, which gives us some more evidence that Dinoblue would have been more than competitive had they met in the same race.

Sky Bet Supreme Novices Hurdle (Grade 1)

ANALYTICS are not only useful in explaining how and why horses have won races, but they can also identify hidden efforts and there are a couple that could be termed data eye-catchers. They both come from the Sky Bet Supreme Novices Hurdle.

Mighty Park was disappointing on the face of it, finishing ninth, but he endured a wide trip on what was only his second start over hurdles and his data suggests he has a bright future over further.

He jumped well, recording a Jump Index of 8.0. but endured a wide trip that cost him ground, presumably kept wide to get a good sight of his hurdles given his inexperience.

Allied to his slick jumping is his stride data, that tells us he has a long raking stride, which would suggest his future lies over further on more galloping tracks. His stride length hit a maximum of 8.34 metres, and he averaged 7.13 metres with no other horse managing to record a figure above 7.0.

This maximum stride length was easily the longest of any of the 475 horses running at this year’s Festival and is the longest on record for horses at the Festival in the Race IQ database since 2023.

Mighty Park looked like a relentless galloper when he won on his debut at Fairyhouse on soft ground, galloping his rivals into submission with an FSP of 100.10% with his nearest pursuer 38 lengths behind him, crawling home with an FSP of 93.19%.

This display marked him out as being a very strong stayer at two miles and connections rolled the dice in the Supreme where a test of speed did not suit him. A step up in trip and a strong gallop will show him in a different light and he could turn out to be top class.

Baron Noir

Baron Noir finished fourth appearing to not quite get the trip having shown plenty of speed. He travelled strongly in ninth place, in a race where the first two home raced in first and second. He then used his speed to get into contention before paying for that effort, getting tired in the final furlong. He quickened through F12, F13 and F14 with splits of 12.93s, 12.41s and 13.35s, which were all faster than the winner Old Park Star. This effort took him into fourth place, but he could not sustain the effort and weakened in the final furlong.

He looks to be a likely sort for Aintree, where his speed will be seen to much better effect on a flatter track. He may go under the radar should he run there and will probably be a bigger price than he should be.