WE will soon be embroiled in the National Hunt season, with the focus of this column turning to jump index scores and lengths gained jumping, but for now the flat season is coming to a conclusion in a manner that has become customary, with Aidan O Brien farming the final Group 1 races of the season and, in so doing, looking very likely to become champion trainer in Britain.
He is also just three Group 1 winners short of his 2017 haul of 28 in a calendar year, with the two days of the Breeders’ Cup providing him with some excellent opportunities to close the gap further.
With all his runners winning significant prize money at Doncaster on Saturday, it will take a big effort from the Andrew Balding team to catch him and, in gaining this significant advantage we saw a top-class performance from Giant Sequoia in the Group 1 Futurity, bouncing back from a disappointing and possibly low-grade infection-affected run in the National Stakes at the Curragh.
The ground at Doncaster last weekend was officially described as heavy, but according to the data it was closer to soft. The Race iQ meeting average Time Index came in at 6.3 out of 10 with five of the eight races producing soft ground par times, with the other three rated as being somewhere between soft and heavy and, on that basis, the ground would be best described as soft (heavy in places).
Race iQ time index score comparisons:
1. Al Shabab Storm: 7.0 (-1.30s vs Par)
2. Giant Sequoia: 7.5 (-3.32s vs Par)
3. Bengal Tiger: 7.9 (-2.75s vs Par)
4. Scienza: 4.7 (+1.45s vs Par) - Steadily run
5. River King: 6.3 (-1.52s vs Par)
6. Castlemount: 6.5 (-2.13s vs Par)
7. Quest For Fun: 4.9 (+1.05s vs Par)
8. Kings School: 5.6 (+ 0.00s vs Par)
William Hill Futurity Stakes (Group 1)
An impressive three-length success for this Frankel colt who relished the step up to a mile, putting behind him a below par effort in the National Stakes, a race in which his stable companion, Haffner, also disappointed before going on to win the Royal Lodge at Newmarket.
The winning time of 1m 42.30s is a fast one given the conditions, and was 2.69s faster than River King who won a 0-95 Handicap over the same trip off a mark of 94. It was achieved in a race that was dictated by his rather keen-going stable companion Sergei Diaghliev.
His Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 104.52% was above the par expectation of 101.83%, this relatively fast finish was aided by the pace slackening mid-race through furlongs four (12.86s) and five (12.88s) with the field able to get a breather and conserve energy for relatively strong finishes.
Giant Sequoia was held up by Dylan Browne McMonagle and was still in last place with three furlongs to run, at this point he accelerated smartly with a 12.06s (par) sixth furlong before hitting his top speed in the penultimate furlong, producing the fastest split in the race of 11.58s (very fast vs par). He then hit the line strongly, with a final furlong that saw him run 12.89s with none of his rivals able to dip under 13.00s.
This was a dominant final three furlongs and, whilst he saw the trip out very strongly in the style of a horse who is destined to race over further, it should not be forgotten just how well he quickened in the penultimate furlong.
This fact may prompt a tilt at the 2000 Guineas next season before his attention is turned to the Derby and, being by Frankel out of a Camelot mare, a mile and a half next season should be no problem.
His stride data shows that he has a long stride and a relatively low cadence (strides per second), which augurs well for him being able to stay further.
He lengthens his stride rather than increases his turnover, but is able to do that relatively quickly.
The stride data of all the runners is detailed below and should be seen in the context of conditions for which horses will have had to adapt their actions.
Average stride length (metres) / Strides per second (cadence):
1st Giant Sequoia: 7.31m / 2.20 s/s
2nd Gran Dia: 7.15m / 2.23 s/s
3rd Noble Exhibit: 6.85m / 2.35s/s
4th Burning Up: 7.0m / 2.28s/s
5th Sergei Diaghliev: 6.69m / 2.37s/s
6th Breacher: 7.34m / 2.19s/s
7th Al Hudaiba: 7.07m / 2.27s/s
Giant Sequoia is second favourite for the Derby behind stable companion Darkness Falls, and both are the standard setters in the two-year-old colts division.
Criterium De St Cloud (Group 1)
ANOTHER juvenile who is now firmly in the Derby picture is Drumbeat, after his impressive win in the Zetland Stakes at Newmarket and then Group 1 glory at St Cloud last Sunday, where Aidan O’Brien also landed the Group 1 Prix Royal Oak.
Drumbeat has improved considerably for stepping up in trip on his last two starts and will have no problem staying 12 furlongs next season, even though it should be noted that his dam was a sprinter in South Africa.
There was a lot to like about the way he surged between horses responding immediately when asked to pick up, showing a game and willing attitude.
He was held up by Ryan Moore in a race that was run at an even tempo and showed a smart turn of foot to see off the useful Jesus Green, who also quickened up well but did not see the race out as strongly as Drumbeat. The sectional data is reproduced courtesy of the France Galop tracking data.
The ground was good to soft with a Penetrometer reading of 4.4 and the winning time of 2m 7.21s was slightly faster than par.
Both quickened in the penultimate furlong, with Drumbeat recording a split of 11.80s and Jesus Green faster at 11.50s, but it was Drumbeat who was able to sustain his speed, running the final furlong in 12.05s, with Jesus Green not seeing the trip out as well recording a sectional that was 0.35s slower.
This finishing effort illustrated how well he stayed the trip, as he had done at Newmarket, where in a race that was run at a stronger pace, he was the only horse able to run a par sectional in the final furlong (12.50s) seeing the race out strongly.
Drumbeat, who is 16/1 for the Derby, looks destined for a trial next season - although given how easily Darkness Falls defeated Jesus Green in the Golden Fleece, Drumbeat needs to improve to trouble his stable companion next season.
Jesus Green may be more of a Guineas prospect, given how quickly and smoothly he made up ground from the rear of the field to ultimately run the fastest furlong in the race, before failing to see the trip out. Wherever Joseph O’Brien decides to go with him, he is clearly a smart prospect who has now been placed in two Group 1s in just four career starts.