THE clash between Bow Echo and Gstaad at Royal Ascot in the St James’s Palace Stakes is a fascinating one that now has the added intrigue of Talk Of New York who looks set to take his chance at the Royal meeting after a spectacular performance at Sandown last week.
He has been a talking horse ever since he showed electric speed on his debut to destroy fellow maidens at Kempton and now we know that its not all talk, he really can walk the walk.
Talk Of New York won the Listed Star Sports Heron Stakes in a spectacular final time of 1m 40.37s which is (-2.53s) under the Race iQ Par on ground that was correctly described as being on the fast side of good. This gave him a Time Index of 9.9 out of 10 (meeting average: 6.5) which was easily the best time on the card as outlined below.
Race iQ Time Index values on a scale of 0-10
Havana Smile 5.0
Where Love Lives 4.3
Dubai Future 4.3
Talk Of New York 9.9
Ombudsman 7.0
Boyfriend 8.3
Law Court 7.0
The pace was strong courtesy of the free going Nations Hope, Wise Prince and Maximised. Talk Of New York was the quickest horse in the race to reach 20mph (2.88s) and briefly threatened to be too keen, but he was able to draft in behind his two stable companions and relaxed when he got some cover.
After four furlongs he was 1.51s (8.3 lengths) behind the leaders with William Buick keen to seek cover for as long as possible. The leaders took him to the two-furlong pole at which point he was just 0.27s (a length and a half) behind the leader. From this point, he was the only horse in the race who was able to quicken with him accelerating from a 12.18s sixth furlong to a 12.03s seventh furlong.
What was even more impressive was the fact that his final furlong of 12.69s was faster than the par number for a race of this class, on the prevailing ground over this trip at Sandown with every other runner in the race not even able to run a par sectional. The very strong pace was too much for all the runners yet Talk Of New York was able to finish off the race faster than par, very strong at the line and still looking a bit rough around the edges under pressure.
Despite the energy sapping gallop, his final two furlongs of 24.72s were quick enough to give him an above Par Finishing Speed Percentage FSP) of 101.52% (Par: 100.09%). None of the other runners could achieve a figure above 100%. The value of data is it provides accurate analysis of what horses are capable of and has an edge on traditional analysis which relies on collateral data.
A comparison of the official ratings achieved by Bow Echo, Gstaad and Talk Of New York fail to consider the outstanding data that Talk Of New York produced at Sandown, relying instead on the fact that he beat the 107-rated Time To Turn by five and a half lengths.
This has given him an official rating which is 14lb inferior to Bow Echo. I will die on the hill that if there is such a discrepancy between these two horses should they meet and both give of their best.
Official Ratings
Bow Echo: 126
Gstaad: 120
Talk Of New York: 112
This may just be an occasion where the data gives us an edge in the market with Talk Of New York currently trading at 5/1 for the St James’s Palace Stakes with Bow Echo the 11/10 favourite. The discrepancy in price is too big judged on what happened at Sandown, and we are in for a magnificent clash on the first day of the Royal meeting.
Qatar Prix du Jockey Club (Group 1)
A WIDE draw was no problem for Constitution River who won a very strongly run Prix du Jockey Club last Sunday in a race of superbly conceived tactics and pure brilliance from the winner. On this evidence, Constitution River would have been the one to beat had he opted to go to Epsom for the Derby.
From the widest draw, over a trip at Chantilly that favours low draws, Constitution River was aided by a cunning tactical plan that was so cunning it could only have come from Ballydoyle, nonetheless, it would be wrong to suggest that he won just because of the tactics employed. He won because he is a very talented racehorse who produced some outstanding data to win this, even if he did look more workmanlike than at Chester, more due to circumstance than anything else.
His final time of 2m 3.52s is an outstanding time over a 10-furlong trip on turf anywhere in the world let alone from a moderate draw. Kept wide in a strongly run race, he drafted in behind his stable companions who were positively ridden. Constitution River ran the first five furlongs in sub-12.00s fractions according to the France Glop tracking data.
The pace then steadied around the downhill bend before Constitution River quickened to the front with an 11.47s furlong through furlong eight and an 11.55s through the ninth and penultimate furlong. This sharp turn of foot having attended a strong gallop was too much for Hawk Mountain (second) and Montreal (third) both of whom quickened but not as well as Constitution River.
With a better draw it is likely that he could have been ridden more conservatively thus saving energy for an even more potent finish than he produced here. There is a lot more to come from this outstanding colt, and where circumstances are more favourable, a spectacular effort is more likely than not.
A Boy worth watching
The Prix du Jockey Club produced a significant eyecatcher in the shape of A Boy Named Susie in fourth, trained by Donnacha O’Brien. Dropped out from a wide draw (stall 13) and able to conserve energy, he produced some impressive data through the final three furlongs when finding some running room against the far rail.
His final three furlongs of 34.47s compared to the winner who came home in 35.58s. This does not mean that that A Boy Named Susie is a better horse than Constitution River because they had their energy distributed in contrasting ways, but he did best of those horses that were held up.
He is one not to miss, particularly if he has his sights lowered away from Group 1 company. Unlike the winner, he does not have a lot of stamina on the dams side of his pedigree and a trip of 10 furlongs or even a drop back to a mile is where his future probably lies.