THE Race iQ jump index values for the Grand National as published in this article last week identified the fact that Monty’s Star was the best jumper in the race with a lifetime index of 8.4 and, even though he could only finish 10th and palpably failed to stay the trip in the National, the data tells us that he was the best jumper in the race with a race index of 8.1. This index compared to I Am Maximus who did not jump well - recording a race index of 6.6 - but still managed to win, and it is with his second Grand National success where this week’s analysis begins.
Elite winner under superb ride
I Am Maximus must be considered an elite winner of this race off a mark of 168. He gave weight to all his rivals and was a decisive winner under a superb ride from Paul Townend, who showed mental strength and professionalism to put the controversy of what happened to Gold Dancer on the previous day behind him.
Even though there were only 16 finishers, there is no doubt that the Grand National fences do not provide the severe jumping test that they used to, and this reduced jumping test clearly helped I Am Maximus because he did not jump as well as he can. His lifetime jump index is 7.1 and he was unable to match that here with a relatively inefficient index of 6.6, which ranked him as being only the 21st best jumper in the race.
He lost 4.22 lengths with his jumping and that compares to Iroko in second who had an index of 7.9 and gained 8.35 lengths. Nonetheless, I Am Maximus was able to win by producing a strong finish under a superbly judged ride.
Strong finish
Going into the final half-mile of the race I Am Maximus was in seventh place with Jordans in the lead, 1.93 seconds (10 lengths) ahead of him. I Am Maximus eroded that advantage with a strong finish which gave him a finishing speed percentage of 109.16%, with Jordans paying for making a premature move a mile from home and therefore weakening markedly in the final furlong, to record an FSP of 104.61%.
This ability to finish strongly at the end of a gruelling four and a quarter miles is his strength as he showed when winning the race in 2024 with an FSP of 110.50%. Such a strong finish was not just testament to the horse’s ability, but to the ride he got. Paul Townend remaining patient as Jordans went from 12th place to first in the space of two furlongs.
There can be no doubt that Jordans made a premature move, and the data clearly identifies this. From the point he made his move he increased the pace through each of the next five furlongs before then getting progressively slower through the final four furlongs. This is set out below by displaying his sectionals from the point where he kicked on his tired finish.
Jordans’ sectionals when he moved from 13th position to the lead were:
3m 1f: 17.48s
3m 2f: 16.40s
3m 3f: 16.26s
3m 4f: 15.99s
3m 5f: 14.23s
3m 6f: 13.00s
From this point onward he slows down weakening from first place to third.
3m 7f: 13.71s
4m: 15.07s
4m 1f: 15.87s
4m 2f: 15.66s
It is impossible not to conclude that Jordans pressed on too far from home, given that those final furlongs were 2.64s (11 lengths) slower than I Am Maximus. It is stretching the point to suggest that under a more judicious ride he would have beaten the winner, but he would certainly have had a better chance of doing so.
I Am Maximus will return next year to try and emulate the great Red Rum. Given that the way the race rides these days suits him ideally, he should be shorter than the 12/1 that he is quoted at currently. Should he get to the race fit and well, the interest and enthusiasm that will be generated will take the race to a level that has not been seen since Red Rum achieved the historic treble in 1977.
IT is an exciting time of year with the flat season preparing for the first classics of the season and we have already seen some interesting performances, not least from Talk Of New York who produced some impressive data at Newmarket last Tuesday as he firmly got his career back on course after a blip in Dubai.
Talk Of New York had impressed on his debut at Kempton where he displayed a sharp turn of foot to sprint away from his rivals with a final two furlongs that gave him an FSP of 110.78%. He displayed similar speed (FSP: 105.36%) when beaten at Meydan, but had been too keen, got a wide trip and was poorly positioned when the sprint began.
His ability to quicken was therefore well established when he ran at Newmarket where he faced a different test in terms of pace. His first two starts had been in steadily-run races, but he faced a much stronger pace here and, with a hood on for the first time and dropped in trip to seven furlongs, he impressed in winning by three lengths.
Talk Of New York settled well which was his first task, and thereafter travelled sweetly to such an extent he was the last horse off the bridle and saw the race out evenly recording an FSP of 101.19%. In so doing, he was the only horse capable off the strong gallop to run the two final furlongs in a time close to par with all the others recording slower than par figures.
Talk Of New York produced a final time of 1m1.50s which was the fastest time of the day. It garnered a Race iQ time index of 6.1 with the meeting average being 5. This was a much quicker time than produced by the other two seven-furlong races on the card.
The 2000 Guineas picture is a cloudy one but at least Talk Of New York has put down a marker and he has done so in a race that properly tested his ability and he has shown his ability to handle the undulations of the Rowley Mile. The data is positive and, although the price of 6/1 is perhaps a bit short, we should remember that Charlie Appleby has another ace up his sleeve as far as this horse is concerned and it is that he could remove the hood that Talk Of New York wore.
Horses often wake up and improve when the hood is removed and it may be a gamble worth taking with this horse who is extremely talented and just needs to channel his energy properly, the hood helped him do that, but now surely it’s time to free him up to show what he is really about in the 2000 Guineas.