Sky Bet Supreme Novices Hurdle (Grade 1)
THE opening day of the Cheltenham Festival 2026 brought into sharp focus the need to jump well to win championship races.
This was even more the case given that conditions were faster than described, putting an emphasis on ability to jump at speed. The official going description of Good to Soft was not backed up by the finishing times, which were all close to the Racing Post standard suggesting that the ground was Good at worst. The slowest overall time achieved by Saratoga was just 6.83 seconds above the standard and the fastest by Kargese just 0.53 seconds above par.
The Supreme looked to be one of the most competitive races on paper with a strong Irish challenge, but with Talk The Talk, El Cairos and Mighty Park all disappointing, it was left to the home contingent to fight out the finish, with Old Park Star impressing with how strongly he finished the race.
Even gallop
This race was run at a strong even gallop, producing a fast time of 3m 51.36s, which was 2.88s faster than Lossiemouth over the same trip in the Champion Hurdle. This was courtesy of the Supreme being run at a stronger gallop, placing more emphasis on stamina than speed.
Sober Glory set the pace, completing the first half mile in 1m 1.47s, which compares with 1m 5.55s in the Champion Hurdle, a difference of 20 lengths. This is a function not just of a decent gallop in the Supreme, but also the early dawdle in the Champion Hurdle. There was no let-up in the gallop and, consequently, Old Park Star could not quicken as smartly as he has shown he can, but he did see the race out strongly to produce a Finishing Speed Percentage of 103.38%. This strong finish was achieved with a final furlong that was much faster than his nearest pursuers, suggesting that he saw the trip out very strongly given the gallop they went.
Final Furlong splits
1st: Old Park Star: 14.83s
2nd: Sober Glory: 15.35s
3rd: Mydaddypaddy: 15.09s
That final furlong superiority was aided by him jumping the last hurdle better than Sober Glory.
Overall, they both jumped really well, with Race IQ jump index values of 9.2 for Old Park Star and 9.5 for Sober Glory, but the final flight data shows that, whilst the mistake Sober Glory made cost him ground, it was not a race-losing error.
Sober Glory put in his worst jump of eight at the last, losing 4.54mph and he took 1.20s to recover his speed, this compares to Old Park Star who lost 3.75mph and took just 0.20s to recover his speed. In essence, Old Park Star was much more quickly into stride having jumped the last.
This was not a race-losing error from Sober Glory, but it cost him momentum and he would have finished closer with a better jump, but this mistake does not explain his final furlong, which was slower than the winner and the third and after all, with the final hurdle further away from the winning post this year, he had time to pick up again after the last and he couldn’t.
The suggestion from Nicky Henderson was that he would go chasing next season, but he is not devoid of speed that would serve him well in a Champion Hurdle.
His top speed and fastest furlong compare favourably to Lossiemouth, who had the advantage of saving energy in a steadily-run Champion before flashing her speed.
Old Park Star: Top Speed – 36.88mph (F13)
Lossiemouth: Top Speed – 36.94mph (F12)
Old Park Star: Fastest Furlong – 12.44s (F13)
Lossiemouth: Fastest Furlong – 12.47s (F12)
Finally, just because Old Park Star is a fine big horse does not mean he is a chaser, it means he is a big horse, surely analysis has moved on from such nonsense these days.
Singer Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices Chase (Grade 1)
KARGESE went into the Arkle as the best jumper in the Race IQ database, with a lifetime score of 9.0 out of 10, and her quick accurate jumping guided her to success in a race that was all about jumping.
Kargese set a strong even gallop, recording an FSP of 101.68% under a well-judged ride by Danny Mullins.
The Good ground enabled her to showcase her slick jumping, recording a very high race jump index of 9.1 as compared to Kopek Des Bordes (7.9) and Lulamba (8.2). She rallied when challenged by Kopek Des Bordes, as she had done when narrowly beaten by Romeo Coolio at Leopardstown, and completed the final furlong 0.50s faster than the runner-up.
In comparison to Kargese’s superb round of jumping, Kopek Des Bordes was novicey and his inexperience cost him the race. He was awkward at the first two fences, losing a total of 11.28mph as compared to Kargese, who lost 7.70mph.
He settled into a better rhythm thereafter, until the last fence, where a momentum-jolting mistake handed the initiative to Kargese.
The data relating to the last fence is revealing:
Jump Index Final Fence:
Kargese: 8.2
Kopek Des Bordes: 5.8
Speed Loss Final Fence
Kargese: 3.08mph
Kopek Des Bordes: 7.23mph
Speed Recovery time
Kargese: 0.2 seconds
Kopek Des Bordes: 4.30s
This mistake came just as Kopek Des Bordes was starting to get the better of Kargese, as evidenced by the fact that he approached the last two fences faster than Kargese. He went into the second last at 32.72mph compared to Kargese, who went in at 31.66mph, and then approached the last at 30.86mph with Kargese recording a speed of 29.84mph.
The sectional times also back up the jumping data. Kopek Des Bordes recorded 14.97s through the penultimate furlong, with Kargese clocking 15.24s, but just as he was getting on top the last fence got in the way.
The data is clear that Kopek Des Bordes was the best horse in the race, but he was not the best jumper and that was crucial in his defeat. He was beaten two and a quarter lengths, yet lost 8.02 lengths on Kargese with his jumping and that is the story of the race,
Lulamba recorded his best round of jumping so far (Jump Index 8.2). A mistake at the second last, which cost him 6.6mph, did not help his cause but did not make a difference to his finishing position.
Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1)
IN this column prior to last year’s Cheltenham Festival, I made a case for Lossiemouth to run in the Champion Hurdle because the data has always suggested she has plenty of speed.
She may well have won last year given what happened, but she made no mistake this year with a devastating success.
It has been said she comes alive at Cheltenham in March, there is a good reason for that, it’s because she gets to race on better ground than she faces in the winter, ground that allows her to flash her speed.
This race was steadily run and was a test of speed. The final time was 5.47 seconds slower than the Supreme, with Lossiemouth able to conserve energy for the fastest finish of the day, recording an FSP of 105.36%. She was faster than all her rivals through each of the final three furlongs and was the only horse in the penultimate furlong to dip under 14.00s (13.64s).
Display of speed
Lossiemouth went no faster than 31.5mph into the first five hurdles and then faster than 35.8mph into hurdles six and seven, as she quickened up and she was still travelling at 34.00mph going into the last. A brazen display of speed over the final three hurdles that was way too fast for her rivals.
Her jumping was quick and slick, recording a Race IQ jump index of 9.1, which is higher than her career score of 8.2.
Brighterdaysahead got an easy lead and jumped better than Lossiemouth with an Index of 9.6, but she could not cope with the speed of the winner and needs softer ground to slow her rivals down.
Upgrade
The only horse that deserves a slight upgrade is Alexi, who lost 7.66mph with a mistake at the last and, without which, he would have been battling for third with The New Lion. Lossiemouth looked impressive and she produced impressive data; on this occasion you can believe what your eyes told you.
Bet MGM Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1)
THE ground on the second day of the Festival was officially described as being Good to Soft and was later changed to Good. The final times on the day suggest that it was at least Good at the start of the day, if not a bit quicker. Five of the seven races produced times that were under the Racing Post standard.
The best ride award on the opening two days must go to Paul Townend for his perfect pace judgement on Il Etait Temps in the Champion Chase, but an honourable mention should be given to Harry Cobden on Kitzbuhel in the Brown Advisory Novices Chase, where he made all and rated his horse perfectly to produce an FSP of 102.10%.
He held his hands up as regards what had happened No Drama This End in the Turners and the fact that he could put that behind him and give Kitzbuhel a superb ride in the next race, showed professional mental strength.
Pace judgement
Pace makes the race and pace judgement makes a jockey and Paul Townend rated the winner perfectly in a race that was run at a furious tempo.
Majborough and Quilixios took each other on through the first three furlongs with Majborough going a rapid 35.46mph into the first fence, 34.38mph into the second and 33.53mph into the third. They had their own private race for three furlongs, which Majborough won and, although Mark Walsh was able to slow the pace a little thereafter, the damage had been done and even without subsequent jumping errors, Majborough would have still been beaten.
After a mile, Paul Townend was 2.35 seconds behind Majborough on the winner, which on good ground is equivalent to 11.75 lengths. Even so, he did not panic and try and go after Majborough, he sat still and made his ground up steadily, which meant that Il Etait Temps was able to maintain his speed to record an FSP of 101.68%.
Likewise, Libberty Hunter, who raced in rear, finished the race off evenly with an FSP of 100.66% to finish second. In essence, Paul Townend won this race by racing evenly, conserving energy and picking off rivals who had done too much too soon.
Sealed his fate
Jumping was clearly an issue for Majborough, who recorded a jump index of 7.9 as opposed to 9.5 at Leopardstown. He was brilliant over the first five fences, gaining 5.42 lengths on the field with his jumping, but thereafter his jumping fell apart and a bad error three out, which cost him 8.71mph, sealed his fate.
Il Etait Temps was not faultless in the jumping department, making a mistake four out, which cost him six miles an hour, and one at the last, which cost him 7.66mph. The difference between his mistakes and Majborough were that his were not tired mistakes, because of the energy that Paul Townend had been able to save early in the race. He had his day at Leopardstown, and he will have his day again, predicting when it will be is becoming increasingly tricky.
The pace of the race ensured that there were no blemish-free rounds of jumping and it is interesting that only Captain Guiness and Brookie managed to better their career Jump Index values in this race, showing that jumping played an important part, but more than anything, pace was the deciding factor whether it induced mistakes or caused uneven distribution of energy. It was the one factor that caused Il Etait Temps to win by 10 lengths, something that looked highly unlikely at halfway.