THE King George at Kempton on St Stephen’s Day is going to be the best race of the season so far and I have had a look at the Race IQ data which hopefully makes the race even more interesting.
Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (Grade 1)
The average Race IQ minimum lifetime jump index required to win at Kempton over fences is 5.3 telling us that you do not need to be as efficient a jumper to win there than at tracks like Aintree (6.3) Gowran (6.0) Leopardstown (6.2) or Sandown (6.0). It goes without saying that all those competing in this year’s race have a lifetime Index above the minimum figure required. More importantly, how do they compare in terms of their jumping ability.
King George Race IQ lifetime Jump Index Values:
Il Est Francais: 8.7
Fact To File: 8.5
Banbridge: 8.3
Jango Baie: 8.3
The Jukebox Man: 8.1
Gaelic Warrior: 8.1
Djelo: 7.5
Master Chewy: 7.3
A field of efficient and quick jumpers further underlines the competitive nature of this year’s renewal. The only surprise would be Djelo whose career index of 7.5 highlights that he is an above average jumper, but not as efficient as all bar one of his rivals. He is generally available at 12/1 which, bearing in mind this jumping data, is a bit short particularly given that last year’s winner Banbridge is a better jumper and is widely available at 14/1.
Banbridge represents each-way value because of his quick jumping. Last year, in a weaker race than he will face this year, he was the best jumper with an Index of 8.1 gaining 14 lengths on his rivals. It looked as if he needed his seasonal return when fourth in the Hilly Way at Cork but he was still the fastest and most efficient jumper in the race with an Index of 9.2. That run will have put him spot on and with his slick jumping likely to keep him in the race for a long time. he is definitely an each-way play.
Kempton is a flat fast track and where speed is of the essence and below is a table of the highest Finishing Speed Percentages that each horse has achieved at the tracks where they were achieved.
The Jukebox Man: 115.82% Kempton
Fact To File: 110.98% Leopardstown
Jango Baie: 110.03% Sandown
Djelo: 109.36% Newbury
Master Chewy: 108.41% Lingfield
Banbridge: 107.44% Kempton
Gaelic Warrior: 106.73%
Il Est Francais: 104.42%
These figures are representative of the fastest final four furlongs that each horse has run in their chasing careers. In themselves, they are not bet compelling because they have been achieved under different pace scenarios on different ground at different tracks.
The King George may well turn into an epic duel between Fact To File and Gaelic Warrior but if there is to be an upset that helps pay my Christmas expenses, then it could be Banbridge at 14/1.
Howden Long Walk Hurdle (Grade 1)
IMPOSE Toi is now unbeaten in three starts over three miles. All the wins at this trip coming this season and in all of them he has produced the best Timeform ratings of his career. The inference is that he has improved a good deal for the step up in trip, but the Race IQ data is less convinced.
In his first start over three miles at Aintree in November, it was his speed that enabled him to easily beat a field of strong stayers. The race was steadily run with all the runners posting Finishing Speed Percentages (FSP) over 100% courtesy of a steady gallop that enabled them to save energy for a relatively fast finish.
Impose Toi recorded an FSP of 109.79% (fastest finish on the card) as he sprinted home with each of his final four furlongs being under 14.00s. He also dominated this field with his jumping, recording the highest jump index in the race of 7.45 and gained 2.82 lengths with his jumping. A dominant display in a race that turned into a sprint and gave us no indication that he will prove to be better at three miles than shorter.
Tactical race
His second win this season came at Newbury in a tactical race that once again did not test his stamina. This was even more of a sprint than at Aintree and his speed got him out of trouble despite being keen and poorly placed. He jumped well recording he second highest Race IQ Jump Index of 8.0 and gained 0.82 lengths on his rivals, who all jumped well courtesy of the steady gallop, allowing them to measure their hurdles well.
Impose Toi beat Strong Leader by three quarters of a length, more than he had done at Newbury, in another race that was not a true test at three miles, but it was a bit more of a test than he had faced so far at the trip, with a gallop that can be described as being slow for the first mile and a half then fast for the next four furlongs before steadying again for four furlongs and then picking up once more for the final half-mile.
The first five home all recorded relatively fast finishes with FSP’s above 100% with Impose Toi recording 105.15% with a final four furlongs of 55.66s compared to the runner-up who clocked 56.37s. Having been held-up he loomed up turning for home and quickened two furlongs out with a 13.86s furlong which took him past Strong Leader who could only manage 14.30s through the same furlong. This burst of speed proved decisive. He jumped very efficiently with an Index of 8.1 and he gained 8.28 lengths with his jumping.
All three races tested the speed that we already know he possesses and there remains a question mark about whether he could grind out a win over three miles against stronger opposition where the emphasis is on stamina. He is generally available at 7/1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival which is too short given that his main asset is speed and as of yet his stamina at three miles has not been tested.
Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1)
SIR Gino makes his long-awaited comeback over hurdles on Boxing Day and is currently trading as the 8/11 favourite. My instinct is that he is a bit short for a horse returning from a year off the track reverting from hurdles to chasing, but his credentials are exemplary.
If he returns in the form that has seen him unbeaten in six starts and it is worth revisiting some of the excellent data he has produced which above all highlights just how much speed he possesses.
In his five runs over hurdles his jumping gradually improved and he boasts an above average career Jump Index of 7.4. He has a high cruising speed and as he shown when winning the JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham (January 2024) he has a sharp turn of foot.
In that race he quickened through the final four furlongs to pull 10 lengths clear of the useful Burdett Road. He completed that final half mile in an impressive 53.45s which was 2.08s (11 lengths) faster than Burdett Road.
Given how well he travels he is well suited to Kempton where he has already won twice, but if he is rusty on his return or simply not the horse that he was Golden Ace will be there to take advantage. Clearly, she has had some luck in her career, but she has plenty of talent.
Her career Jump Index of 7.8 is better than Sir Gino and she is not slow. The highest speed that she has hit in her career is 37.13mph compared to Sir Gino whose maximum speed so far in his career is 35.39mph. A single hit on the speedometer at any point in a race is not indicative of one horse being better than another because it is the ability to sustain speed that wins races at the highest level.
However Golden Ace is waiting in the wings and although she has been tried at two and a half miles is well suited to a test of speed at two miles as she showed when winning the Mares Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham 2024 where in a race that turned into a sprint, she was too fast for Brighterdaysahead recording an FSP of 114.16%.
Sir Gino will probably win easily, but we have no idea if he retains all of his ability, if not the Ace in the pack is ready to pounce.
IN the concluding hurdle at Ascot on Saturday Mondo Man was well backed but given how the race was run he had no chance of rewarding his supporters and did well to finish fourth. He is one to bear in mind for a valuable handicap hurdle this season.
Mondo Man was held up in last place (13th) in a race that was steadily run and dominated by those that raced prominently with the winner Wilful making all the running. After the first 11 furlongs of the race Mondo Man was 1.46 seconds behind the leader which on good to soft ground equates to eight lengths.
He then made a move to get into contention to such an extent that two furlongs from home he was in sixth place 0.69 seconds, or four lengths, behind the winner. He then failed to make any more progress on the winner who did not stop in front having got an easy lead (FSP: 105.15%). Mondo Man weakened in the final two furlongs as he paid for the effort that saw him make up four lengths on the leader from F11 to F14. His worst jump of the race came at the last (Jump Index 7.2) as he got tired after making that big move into contention.
Mondo Man should be given a sectional upgrade for this performance and there are two further positive aspects of this performance to bear in mind. Firstly, he settled much better than has been the case before and his jumping is improving, he was the second-best jumper in the race with an overall index of 9.0 gaining 6.06 lengths on the field and this represented the best round of jumping of his career.