St James’s Palace Stakes (Group 1)

BOW Echo remains unbeaten after this narrow success, in which Gstaad (second) reduced the 2000 Guineas deficit to a short head. The first three home were the fastest three into stride, with Bow Echo and Talk Of New York racing keenly and engaging in a bit of bumper cars through the first furlong, with Billy Loughnane on the winner taking a pull and dropping in, which would force him into a wide ground losing challenge on the bend.

The race surprisingly produced a slower than par finish, due to the energy-sapping early gallop over a stiff mile. With the FSP Par for a race of this standard at Ascot on fast ground set at 106.38%, the first three could get nowhere near that with relatively weak finishes of:

Bow Echo: 100.52%

Gstaad: 100.42%

Talk Of New York: 99.38%

The first half mile was strongly run, with Power Blue and Puerto Rico forcing the pace through faster than Par fractions.

This early gallop was stronger than the one set in the Queen Anne, with the winner and second sat 0.28s (one and a half lengths) and 0.43s (two and a half lengths) off the pace respectively.

The length advantage that Bow Echo had over Gstaad at the halfway point was reduced on the home turn, with Gstaad level with the winner turning in. The crucial point was how the two of them picked up in the straight, and it was Bow Echo who picked up quicker.

Through furlong six, Bow Echo was 0.09s quicker and then, through furlong seven, he was 0.19s quicker. This took him to the front and, although Gstaad was 0.16s faster than the winner in the final furlong, he could not peg the winner back.

The more instant speed that Bow Echo showed from three out to one out won him the race and, not for the first time, it took Gstaad a bit of time to get organised. It may be the case that Gstaad will be tried over further later this season, but for now, a third duel with Bow Echo beckons in the Sussex Stakes, where a more aggressive ride could serve him well.

Bow Echo and Gstaad probably performed some way below the standard they set in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, probably more due to circumstance and an overly-strong early gallop, courtesy of the pacemakers.

Bow Echo was undoubtedly inconvenienced by what happened at the start and he was forced wide, with Gstaad found out again for lacking an instant change of gear.

Talk Of New York in third shaped well in what was his first Group 1 contest. Despite his early zest, and like the winner, he was also able to run the penultimate furlong faster than Gstaad (11.96s vs 11.99s), before tiring in the final furlong.

He is a very similar type to his stable companion Opera Ballo, and both are capable of Group 1 success with the Dubai turf over nine furlongs at Meydan in March a possible long-term target for one of them, their keen-going nature sure to be better served on a turning track.

Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1)

A HUGE upset in the opener, with Ten Bob Tony benefiting from a pace meltdown. The data is unequivocal that Opera Ballo emerges as the best horse in the race on the day, sticking on well for third, having set too strong a gallop.

Opera Ballo was fastest into stride, taking just 2.61s to reach 20mph, with Ten Bob Tony being the slowest taking 2.84s.

Racing freely in front, Opera Ballo was the fastest horse through the first three furlongs, going 14.22s (Very Fast vs Par) from the stalls, then 11.42s (Fast vs Par) and then a third furlong of 11.91s (Par). In essence, it took Billy Loughnane three furlongs to get him to settle and this early exertion took its toll later in the race. In going this quickly in front, Opera Ballo found himself 1.20s (equivalent to seven and a quarter lengths) ahead of Ten Bob Tony and, given that he was beaten just three-quarters of a length, the inference that he did too much in front is easy to see.

This inference is backed up by his Finishing Speed Percentage of 98.68% (Par: 100.78%), with Ten Bob Tony able to finish faster than par posting an FSP of 101.26%. This faster finish though is more to do with energy distribution rather than raw ability.

The data as regards Ten Bob Tony shows that he did not have to quicken sharply to win, but he did have to show sustained speed from the back of the field to get to Opera Ballo. With Opera Ballo running each of the final four furlongs slower than Par as his early exertions told, Ten Bob Tony came home in Par numbers as did More Thunder in second place.

They both posted their fastest furlongs as they picked up from the three to the two-furlong marker in comparison to Opera Ballo, whose fastest furlong was his second furlong.

Should this field meet again, I have no doubt that Opera Ballo would win, particularly around a bend where he could get a breather mid-race, that could happen in the Sussex Stakes, but to win that, he will have to contend with the three-year-olds as well.

THE opening day of Royal Ascot 2026 was run on ground that was correctly described as being good to firm. The Race iQ meeting average index came in at 6.5, which fits the official description. Six of the seven races produced final times that were under the Race iQ Par times, but were not far enough under par to suggest that the ground was quicker than described. The only race that came in above par was the steadily-run Wolferton Stakes. Times and how they stack up against Par plus the Race iQ Time Index values are set out below.

Ten Bob Tony: 1.37.53s (-1.03s vs Par) Index: 7.2

Great Barrier Reef: 1m 13.14s (-0.34s vs Par) Index 6.2

Mission Central: 58.72s (- 0.28s vs Par) Index 6.3

Bow Echo: 1m 38.48s (-0.80s vs Par) Index 6.9

Kiziyar: 4m 20.94s (-1.14s vs Par) Index 6

Map Of Stars: 2m 4.91s (+0.57s vs Par) Index 4.9

Daiquiri Bay: 2m 59.32s (-2.32s vs Par) Index 8.1

The first three races were run on the straight course and were all won by horses coming from off the pace. Whilst recognising that pace is the most important factor in determining the best position to adopt in a race, these first three results were in accordance with the historical data that relates to the straight course at Ascot. Given its stiff nature, it can be described as the home of racing off the pace, with the track presenting opportunities for horses whose running styles see them disadvantaged across other tracks.