LIKE it or not, we are now on the long and winding road to Cheltenham, where any performance of note is analysed through the prism of the Festival.

It’s good to dream, exciting to speculate - even if in many cases somewhat premature. The use of data in this process can be a very unwelcome spoiler, waking some from their dreams, pouring cold water on speculation, an unwelcome bedfellow for those who want to live with the hype.

It is not a negative influence on the sport though, rather a dose of reality that can improve ante-post portfolios and solidify opinions that without data had no basis.

Last week, horses that may be Cheltenham contenders next March emerged or returned to action and our level of excitement can be judged by what they achieved rather than what we think they did.

Mydaddypaddy

Mydaddypaddy was favourite for the Skybet Supreme Novices Hurdle before at Carlisle on Monday and, because of this four and a half-length win, is now as short as 7/1. He produced some impressive data here, beating the previously unbeaten Harbour Island with Harry Skelton motionless through the final two furlongs. The most impressive part of this performance was his jumping.

He gained ground on all his rivals at each of the nine hurdles, meaning that he gained 6.95 lengths with his jumping on the runner-up and he was particularly good at the third last and last flights, where he was very quick losing just 1.76mph and 2.15mph respectively through the jumping envelope, which is measured from 30 metres before a flight of hurdles to 30 metres after.

Such slick and efficient jumping gave him a Race IQ jump Index of 8.0 out of 10, which is impressive for a horse making his debut over hurdles. This data is all well and good, but it requires context, and the Race IQ database provides just that.

Only 180 horses out of 7,293 in the database have scored a Jump Index of 8.0 out of 10 on debut and this means that his jumping performance sits within the top 2.5% of jumping performances on debut in the database.

Carried away

This is all very positive as regards his prospects and the Supreme dream is alive, but it’s not time to get carried away given the pace of this race which was very steady. Each of the first six furlongs were run in splits that were slower than 16.5s with the pace only significantly increasing after a mile and a half.

Mydaddypaddy was faster than his rivals through the final four furlongs, recording the highest Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of the meeting of 111.87%. This fast finish, which included a penultimate furlong of 13.587s (34.08mph), is partly explained by the steady early gallop, with the winner saving energy for a fast finish and by the fact that he is a horse with plenty of speed. This is backed up by him recording a maximum speed of 36.71mph when winning his bumper at Huntingdon.

His slick jumping off a steady gallop and his speed in the closing stages are the data highlights of this performance, but his ability to jump as well and show such speed off a much stronger gallop in better company remains an unknown.

ON occasions, data analysis does not highlight anything new about a horse whether positive or negative, but sometimes it can reassure us that all the old ability remains intact. This was certainly the case with Il Etait Temps in the Grade 2 Clonmel Oil Chase last Thursday.

In his previous three starts, Il Etait Temps had beaten Grey Dawning, Gaelic Warrior and Jonbon, and completed this task with ease on what was his first start over two and a half miles.

Traditional analysis must take a positive view of this performance given that he beat the 150-rated Senecia by 18 lengths.

In his final two starts last season at Punchestown and Sandown, he produced his career best jumping performances with Race IQ Jump Indices of 8.1 and 8.9 out of 10.

That improvement was reflected here, with him recording an Index of 8.4 as he sauntered to success in a race that was run at a muddling tempo that is best described as being slow/fast/slow/fast.

His final four furlongs of 56.04s was 4.14s faster than Senecia, giving him an FSP of 110.34%, with Il Etait Temps showing that he retains all the speed that has seen him to be more than effective over two miles in the past. In fact, he has never run faster in any of his starts over fences. His top speed of 36.37mph in the penultimate furlong is easily his career best.

The data is clear that the engine is intact and may have been fine-tuned enough to enable him to become a champion, but let’s get the Tingle Creek out of the way before we start dreaming.

TWO performances last week from horses that some will have earmarked as being potential Cheltenham horses need some explaining and I can lend some analytics to the speculation. First up, what on earth happened to Spillane’s Tower in the Listed Hurdle at Naas on Sunday?

Well handicapped off a mark of 130 and a well-backed 6/5 favourite, he was a disappointment in a race where he just did not fire. Connections have stated that he is just not a hurdler these days, even though he boasts a novice hurdle win at Naas in 2023.

In truth, the data suggests he jumped reasonably well with a Race IQ Jump Index of 7.7, losing 0.75 lengths on the field with his jumping. It should be noted that his lifetime index over fences is 8.5, but he did not jump so badly here as to account for him finishing a well-beaten ninth.

There was no excuse in terms of how the race was run either, with Spillane’s Tower racing in mid-division off an even gallop and keeping on, recording an FSP of 102.92%. He picked up half a mile out, an effort that he sustained for two furlongs before gradually weakening in the final quarter mile.

In essence, he was one-paced and simply did not fire. Even if hurdling is not for him, he should have run better than he did and there is no real excuse for him in terms of the data he produced. The jury must remain silent on his Cheltenham aspirations for now.

Something to prove

With Spillane’s Tower having something to prove now, the same applies to The Wallpark, who made his debut over fences at Naas last Sunday.

The Wallpark, who finished third to Bob Olinger in the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham, made his chasing debut over an inadequate two miles in the beginners’ chase, but despite the trip, this was an underwhelming performance.

According to the data, it was his jumping that let him down. He lost ground on the field at all except two of the 10 fences and was slow and inefficient throughout, recording a Race IQ Jump index of 5.9. The die was cast at the first fence, where he lost 7.9mph through the jumping envelope and he lost over five miles per hour at each of the final four fences.

A generous interpretation of this performance would give him another chance when racing over further, where he could measure his fences better at a slower pace. Alternatively, it can be deduced from the data that chasing is just not for him.