TWO two horses produced spectacular performances at Fairyhouse on Sunday and are good examples of where the visual impression created, and the analytics, exist in harmony.

Paddy Kehoe Suspended Ceilings Novices Hurdle (Grade 2)

He’s On Fire easily beat the 136-rated Generous Risk by 12 lengths in a performance that could not have been more impressive to the eye.

Any traditional analyst would rate this horse as being worth a rating of 150 plus and that assessment is backed up by the data.

He produced a final time of 5m 15.60s which was 1.1s faster than Zanoosh in the Grade 1 Honeysuckle Mares Novices Hurdle. Final times are not always a good way to compare performances but given that both races were run in a similar fashion, producing comparable Finishing Speed Percentages (FSP) of 110.35% and 109.00% respectively, it is not fanciful to believe that He’s On Fire would have beaten Zanoosh.

He raced in mid-division and after briefly looking to be in trouble he quickened through the final half-mile taking 57.20s to complete those final four furlongs which was the fastest at the meeting and compares to Zanoosh who completed the same distance in 58.11s.

Not only was he the fastest horse at the meeting through the final four furlongs, he also hit the highest speed at the meeting of 34.27mph and ran the fastest sectional with a 13.38s split through furlong 18.

This was a remarkable display of sustained speed, and he was able to produce it after getting a bump three out and making a slight mistake at the second last. He was still rolling going down to the last hurdle which he approached at 29.75mph and he recovered his speed quickly to exit the jumping envelope at 28.83mph which was the fastest by any horse over the final obstacle at the meeting.

Full of running

This speed over the last is an indicator that he was still full of running and value for more than the 12-length winning margin.

This was only his second start over hurdles after a bloodless win at Carlisle. He jumped better at Carlisle than he did here with comparable Race iQ Jump Index values of 8.2 and 7.4, but he showed how good he can be at his hurdles at Fairyhouse with jump index values at three of his hurdles of 8.5 8.3 and 8.1.

He’s On Fire is one of the best novices we have seen this season, with the visual impact he created not only backed up by the data, but positively enhanced.

Boylesports Irish Grand National (Grade 3)

ONCE again, this 16-length success aligns with the data produced. In a well-hatched plan, Soldier In Milan was an easy winner and in hindsight was clearly well treated off a mark of 142. Unsurprisingly he has now been raised 15lb by the handicapper.

His success was predicated on what can only be described as a jumping exhibition and it was a first for him in that he was racing in a handicap for the first time at the trip for the first time and in a tongue tie for the first time.

The race was evenly run with only the first three able to produce relatively strong finishes with FSP’s above 100.

Soldier In Milan: 106.99%

Showurappreciation: 103.38%

The Enabler: 102.09%

The rest of the field all recorded finishes that were much slower, all below 98.64% (the figure recorded by Argento Boy in fourth)

Soldier In Milan was 1.9s faster than the runner-up through the final furlong, clearly relishing the step up in trip, to beat a progressive rival who was able to finish much quicker than the rest. It was not this strong finishing effort that stood out though because it was his jumping that really set him apart.

Soldier In Milan recorded a Race iQ Jump Index of 8.8 out of 10 which was the best in the field and in so doing, he gained 34.23 lengths on his rivals, making ground at every one of the 24 fences and at 15 of those fences he gained over a length. If ever a round of jumping was instrumental in success, then this is it.

He has been quoted at 33/1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup next year such is the rapid progress that he has made this season. He is only a seven-year-old and lightly raced at that, but surely the Gand National will be the target next season.

A lifetime jump index of 8.1 puts him in the top 76 horses in terms of jumping in the Race iQ Database which contains 4990 horses and were he to line up this year he would have the joint fifth best Jump Index in the race.

This time next year we could be talking about him as being favourite for the Grand National.

FOR the Grand National, analysis of lifetime jump index scores is a good starting point when it comes to deciphering the race. A Race iQ Jump Index of 8.0 or above can be rated as exceptional. Between 7.0 and 8.0 represents an above average jumper and anything below 7.0 is descending into the moderate jumper category. Below are the horses running in this year’s race with a Jump Index value above 7.7.

Last year Nick Rocket put up a joint career best round of jumping. His lifetime score is 7.5, but he seemed to relish the National fences, with a score of 8.4 and gaining 20.63 lengths on his rivals. He looks to go well again with his fast accurate jumping. However, Grangeclare West catches the eye given that he probably should have won last year when ironically, he was let down by his jumping late in the race. Grangeclare West put in his worst two jumps at the last two fences which halted any momentum that he was beginning to gather.

The last fence was particularly pertinent with Nick Rockett gaining 3.51 lengths on him and given that he was only beaten three lengths at the line, it is hard not to think that his last fence blunder played a part in the result. Willie Mullins could dominate again with I Am Maximus joining Nick Rockett and Grangeclare West.

I Am Maximus will sport cheekpieces for the first time, but he will need to jump better than last year when he finished second but lost 6.69 lengths on the field with his jumping. It’s Grangeclare West for me, but good luck with your selections in what looks to be a tremendous renewal.