Tattersalls Sceptre Sessions Falmouth Stakes (Group 1)

THE two Group 1 races at Newmarket last week produced the best time performances of the week. This is not always the case because group races are just as prone to being as falsely run as any other.

In winning the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes, Blue Bolt posted some outstanding data and Comanche Brave won a competitive Group 1 July Cup in what was the most competitive sprint we have seen this year.

Over the three days of the July meeting, the ground at Newmarket was Good to Firm with the executive deserving plenty of credit for resisting the temptation to put too much water on the track as the meeting progressed.

The average Race IQ time index values on each day are lower than one would expect for consistently fast ground, but they are skewed by several steadily-run races that brought the average down.

This was certainly the case on day two, where five of the seven races were steadily run. With the ground described as Good to Firm on all three days, index values above five and a half are an indication that the ground rode as described where races were run evenly.

Average Race IQ Time Index values:

Day 1: 5.8

Day 2: 4.5

Day 3: 5.8

Blue Bolt covered the one mile of the July course in a time of 1m 37.38s, which was (-0.26s) under the Race IQ par. A fast time courtesy of a strong even gallop that resulted in a Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 99.20% for the winner, which was just 1.16% below the par expectation for a race of this class over this trip on the July course over a mile on fast ground.

The finish was not faster than par courtesy of the first half mile, which was strongly run with Blue Bolt completing the first two furlongs in faster than par numbers, which influenced her ability to finish the race faster than she did.

Nonetheless, Blue Bolt was able to quicken in the final three furlongs, posting her fastest furlong of the race in furlong seven. Her final three furlongs are as below.

F6: 11.43s (Slower than the Par expectation)

F7: 11.38s (On Par)

F8: 13.16s (Slower than Par expectation)

The slower than par final furlong was replicated by the whole field, all of whom finished slowly as the early strong pace took its toll.

The most interesting part of the race was the start where Precise, who finished second, suffered significant interference. As the stalls were about to open, she had her head to one side and then when they did open, she received a hefty bump from Evolutionist, who had been inconvenienced by Blue Bolt lunging to her right.

This is reflected in the Break Speed Data, with Precise being the slowest horse in the race to reach 20mph.

Falmouth Break Speed Data

1st: Venetian Lace 2.51s

2nd: Blue Bolt 2.54s

3rd: Evolutionist 2.56s

4th: Venosa 2.60s

5th: Jancis 2.73s

6th: Balantina 2.90s

7th: Precise 3.11s

The unintended consequence of this was that Blue Bolt was able to slot in behind Venosa, who was in the race as a pacemaker for Precise, with Ryan Moore having to tack across to adopt a position behind Blue Bolt.

In effect, the interference that Blue Bolt initiated gave her a positional advantage over her market rival. It is impossible to say whether this made a difference to the result with the data showing that Blue Bolt was faster than Precise through each of the final two furlongs. Going into the final quarter mile, Blue Bolt was 0.06s ahead of Precise and she had increased that gap to 0.32s by the time they hit the line.

Inconvenienced

Precise has never been a horse who is quickly into stride, for example when she won the Irish 1000 Guineas, she was the 10th fastest to reach 20mph and, for this reason, I am inclined to say that, whilst she was inconvenienced by what happened at the start of the Falmouth, it did not cost her the race.

We should take a positive view of Blue Bolt’s performance, after all she gave 9lb to Precise, and she is worthy of a place in races against the best milers in the country and she would not look out of place in the Sussex Stakes should connections want to roll the dice.

Comanche Brave and Billy Loughnane win from Venetian Sun and Coppull - sustaining his speed is a big asset \ Healy Racing

Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai July Cup Stakes (Group 1)

COMANCHE Brave had looked thoroughly progressive before finishing seventh in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot, won by Almeraq, but resumed his progress with an impressive success here.

A relatively small field of 11 went to post, but it was a good renewal of this race with three Group 1 winners from this season and a progressive Wokingham winner taking part.

The winner completed the six furlongs in a fast time of 1m 9.99s (-0.56s vs Par) and, as is always the case with fast times, they are achieved when horses can distribute their energy evenly.

That was certainly the case with Comanche Brave, who travelled strongly whilst completing every one of the six furlongs in a par number. His sectionals throughout the race were remarkably similar, showing how he was able to find a rhythm that helped him maintain an even gallop.

Comanche Brave Sectionals

F1: 14.26s (Par)

F2: 10.82s (Par)

F3: 10.72s (Par)

F4: 10.71s (Par)

F5: 10.83s (Par)

F6: 12.54s (Par)

Unsurprisingly, these individual sectionals gave him an FSP, which was almost bang on expectation with a figure of 99.84% with Par at 99.20%.

His fourth and fifth furlongs were the fastest in the race and that established enough of an advantage over Venetian Sun (second), Coppull (fourth) and Division (fifth), all of whom were faster in the final furlong, but unable to catch the winner.

Comanche Brave will likely head to Haydock for the Sprint Cup, although the Flying Five at the Curragh may be a possibility as well. Either way, he is a progressive sprinter whose ability to sustain his speed on the bridle longer than others is a big asset.

It should be noted that the first three home were all drawn high coming from stalls 10, 9 and 8 respectively and therefore the performance of Division (fifth), who broke from stall 1, should be upgraded.

Switched

He was the slowest horse in the race to reach 20mph (2.87s) and had to be switched to track the main group in the middle of the track. He was still in 10th place with two furlongs to run, but kept on well to be faster than the winner through the final furlong.

From a poor position, he did well to finish fifth and his late running style will be ideal for a return to Ascot in October for the Qipco Champion Sprint.

He has already shown that Ascot suits his style with a third place in the Commonwealth Cup this year and that was behind Venetian Sun, who will also be a player in autumn sprints when the ground will be softer which will be much more to her liking.