Once Nancy Sexton told me who she had spoken to for last week’s feature, where buyers and consignors made predictions for the upcoming yearling sales, I was dying to read it.

Nancy’s piece didn’t disappoint, with plenty of food for thought from Alex Elliott, Anthony Stroud, Bill Dwan, David Cox, Mick Donohoe and Padraic Gahan. Be sure to read it if you haven’t already.

One quote in particular piqued my curiosity; Michael Donohoe of BBA Ireland said: “It sounds like some of the big players from the past few years won’t be playing ball to the same level as last year.”

It’s not the first time such rumours floated about – I remember similar word going around the Tattersalls sales ground ahead of the Craven Breeze Up Sale and it transpired to be true. Reasons for certain buyers’ absences are anyone’s guess, and while we may speculate aplenty, most of us will never know.

One reason to tighten the purse strings can be a lack of success – whether it be overall, or a case of having less luck at certain sales. With most of the three-year-old classics done and dusted, I thought it was time to look up the priciest buys of 2024 and see how they have fared to date.

I narrowed my search down to horses bought for 400k and upwards – that’s 400,000gns at Tattersalls Book 1 and 2, and €400,000 at the Arqana August Sale and the Goffs Orby Sale. While 400,000gns equates to just under €500,000, I decided to use these particular figures because otherwise, there would have been very few horses to compare at Arqana and Goffs.

If your memory needs refreshing, the 2024 renewals of Book 1 and 2 were record-breaking editions, thanks largely to huge spends by Amo Racing and Godolphin – Kia Joorabchian’s operation spent 13,575,000gns at Book 1, while Sheikh Mohammed’s team outlaid 19,625,000gns, and the momentum continued through to the next sale.

How their purchases fared could have a major influence on what they do this year, and the same goes for others – whether it means they simply won’t reinvest or will adjust their spending.

I need to stress that my figures aren’t for each sale as a whole – they are focussed on the horses that sold for 400k or more, whatever the currency. The percentages listed are in terms of the number of 400k lots, rather than in terms of the whole catalogue.

Granted, some have yet to run and all are open to improvement (and regression), but these statistics offer some insight at the very least. Without further ado, here is how the most expensive yearlings of 2024 have fared by the middle of their three-year-old careers.

So, which sale has given you the biggest bang for your buck, at this stage of the 2026 season? The Goffs Orby Sale has punched above its weight, considering it sold the joint lowest number of yearlings in the price bracket at 21.

It was quality over quantity, as that price bracket at the Orby has produced the highest ratio of winners, stakes winners, Group 1 winners and blacktype horses.

Book 2 sold the same number of horses as Goffs for 400,000gns, but it’s disappointing to note that none have won or placed at the highest level.

Once again, I stress that these figures are solely based on the very top of the market and do not reflect the success of graduates bought at lower prices (Gewan, Title Role and Zavateri were three Group 1 winners bought for lower prices at Book 2 in 2024, for example).

But it does make you wonder whether the leading buyers will be reluctant to spend quite as much money for the choicest yearlings at certain sales.

We may use the phrase ‘the horse doesn’t know much he cost’ when a bargain buy defies the odds, but it’s just as applicable to pricey purchases who fail to live up to expectations. It’s not how much you spend, it’s how you spend it, right?