ENDLESS DRAMA

Ger Lyons

(Queen Anne Stakes, Tuesday)

Endless Drama came up just short for us in the Lockinge, but he shaped with conspicuous promise on that return from injury, and he looks set for a fruitful summer. Prior to that, he’d given Gleneagles a massive fright in the Irish 2000 Guineas, and he is a stunning looker who promises to do even better having been given time to mature physically.

This is a disappointing Queen Anne with a false favourite in the shape of Tepin, for whom the loss of her usual nasal strip is as much of a worry as the possibility of easy ground. Time Test may well come here rather than tackle A Shin Hikari in the Prince of Wales’ and while he’s a big threat after an impressive win on his return, that did come over farther and his sluggish start at Sandown wouldn’t want to be repeated if he does opt for the mile contest.

Belardo has a verdict over the selection in the Lockinge, but he already had the benefit of a couple of runs, and looks vulnerable now his main rivals are at peak fitness.

MECCAS ANGEL

Michael Dods

(King’s Stand Stakes, Tuesday)

No apologies here for sticking with Mecca’s Angel after she did the business in the Nunthorpe at York last year, beating the hotpot Acapulco, and she is a tremendous bet to uphold that form on what will be more advantageous terms in the King’s Stand. Forced to concede the impressive Queen Mary winner a massive 24lb at York, the difference will be just 7lb at Ascot, and how most firms have the pair at the same price boggles belief.

Acapulco was a well-grown juvenile who has trained on well, but by being so precocious physically, she is unlikely to make the jump forward in form terms needed to turn the tables on the mare who beat her on the Knavesmire. Mecca’s Angel was beaten by Profitable in the Temple Stakes at Haydock, but that defeat owed much to rustiness and a degree of intimidation from the winner, who would have been disqualified in many other jurisdictions. She’ll be sharper with that race under her belt, and won’t allow herself to be bullied out of it this time.

STEEL OF MADRID or OH THIS IS US

Richard Hannon

(Britannia Stakes, Thursday)

There are no entries for the Britannia, a competitive three-year-old handicap, as yet, but the event is confined to horses with a rating of 105 or lower, and Steel Of Madrid, a winner of a listed race at Newmarket on his latest start, is rated a pound below the ceiling for this event, so must be considered a possible runner, for all he’s given the handicapper a chance to close him down.

A big eyecatcher under a poor tactical ride over this trip at Haydock on his previous outing, he looks just the type to be suited by sitting off the usual frenetic pace which prevails here, and he has shown admiral resolution on all four career outings to date. It’s possible that having won at listed level, connection will forgo handicaps entirely, but this is a tempting pot, and he’s worth including in the list.

Hannon also has Oh This Is Us as a likely runner here, and while he was arguably fortunate to beat an unlucky-in-running Haalick at Goodwood when bringing up his hat-trick, that came over seven furlongs and he’s already proven his stamina for a mile with his previous impressive win at Newmarket. He’s climbing the handicap, but was working from a ridiculously lenient mark in the first place, and still looks a step ahead of the official assessor. Given the strength Hannon has in this division, it will be significant if he relies on just a single runner, and whatever he runs merits maximum respect.

Of the other probables, Manson also deserves a favourable mention having won in some style at Sandown on his handicap debut. He’s not garnered much in the way of column inches for that win, but if the half-brother to Jack Hobbs had won the same race for John Gosden, rather that Dominic Ffrench Davis, he’d be the talk of the town.

DONJUAN TRIUMPHANT

Richard Fahey

(Commonwealth Cup, Friday)

Few juveniles progressed as well as Middleham Park Racing’s Donjuan Triumphant in the latest season, and from being beaten in maidens at Redcar, Ayr and Carlisle, he progressed to win the Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte in breath-taking style, before failing to stay seven furlongs in the Criterium International (Group 1) at St Cloud in November. He was ridden with greater restraint on that occasion and seemed to resent it, racing too freely as a result, and it’s best not to judge him on that performance, creditable though it was in form terms.

He was reported by his owners to have wintered badly and taken time to come to hand, so he did remarkably well to chase home Quiet Reflection in the Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock on his reappearance. He will be better for that pipe-opener, as well as the opportunity to race on a stiffer track, while the prospect of showers throughout the next few days will also help his prospects, given how well he handles cut in the ground.

QEMAH

Jean-Claude Rouget

(Coronation Stakes, Friday)

Qemah landed a minor event at Longchamp (1m½f) before a staying-on third to Ballydoyle in the Prix Marcel Boussac (Group 1) on Arc day, and while that isn’t outstanding form for a filly with Group 1 aspirations, she went to Longchamp in October relatively light on experience, and was clearly learning, even as the race progressed.

She took another step forward when winning the Prix de la Grotte on her return before a fine third in the Poule d’Essai des Pouliches at Deauville. It’s worth mentioning that Rouget has targeted his best fillies at Royal Ascot’s Coronation Stakes in recent years, going close with Lesstalk In Paris in 2014 and winning the following year with Ervedya, so it’s likely that Qemah, who races under the Al Shaqab banner, has had this race as her mid-term target all along. She clearly has work to do to match the performances of Minding and Jet Setting, but the former surely won’t be heading here, while Adrian Keatley’s filly will almost certainly need the ground to be riding quite soft to show her best form.

WIDE DRAWS IN MILE AND A HALF HANDICAPS

(King George V Stakes, Thursday and Duke of Edinburgh Stakes, Friday)

It seems that we never learn from history. When Space Age won last year’s King George V Stakes from stall 20, beating another pair of high-drawn horses, we were told he’d done tremendously well to overcome a poor draw, and the same plaudits rang out for Arab Dawn when winning over the same course and distance the following day from stall 21.

Newsflash, folks – it may be hard to get your head around, but high draws are favoured in 1½m handicaps at Ascot when the fields are as big as they are at the Royal meeting. This point is proven again and again, but most pundits and punters either don’t check the information, or don’t accept its relevance.

The bottom line is that the last four runnings of both these handicaps have been completely dominated by horses drawn in double figures, and that is once again likely to be the case.

Don’t miss the message, and don’t bet before you see the draw. The irony is that if you do find your fancy is drawn out wide, you will probably get better odds from those who should know better.